2 ms·

> it really doesn't matter where COVID came from It really does. Pandemics are rare, serious ones doubly so. If one of those rare pandemics was artificial then

by nvm0n2 3y ago

> it really doesn't matter where COVID came from It really does. Pandemics are rare, serious ones doubly so. If one of those rare pandemics was artificial then we can create a massive increase in health by just avoiding those. But more obviously, viruses leak from labs at far higher rates than are acceptable. This would then matter as it'd be yet more evidence that virologists as a group just can't be trusted to treat their work with sufficient seriousness, implying e.g. vastly stricter regulation or outright banning of their work (enforced, this time).

mrguyorama 3y ago
Okay, let's assume China accidentally released COVID from that wuhan lab, and we have ironclad proof. How do you stop China from producing and leaking COVID 2.0? If China says "How dare you slander our good name and insinuate our scientific endeavors are done in any way that isn't safe", how do you stop them? We can "pressure" them all we want, China has made it clear that they are not afraid to be an antagonist of the US, they intend to be a threat to the US militarily within a decade or so, and we are already sanctioning them on the important stuff. What other levers can we pull? COVID started in China, and whether it happened in a wet market or a lab, poor processes are to blame. Unless we are willing to start shooting, we can not force China to tighten up such processes. I think they probably want to on their own, since COVID has not been fun for them, but we can't force China to change sovereign reality any more than they can force us to sell them AI chips. The only workable solution is to assume there WILL be future pandemics, and be prepared for them, with a stockpile of PPE and teams ready to respond quickly. Obama had both of these setup, but Trump killed them and sold off the PPE before COVID hit the radar.
- nvm0n2 3y ago
  > How do you stop China from producing and leaking COVID 2.0? Step one would be stop giving them money as a workaround for domestic bans. Step two would be to stop helping them by building high tech biolabs for them. Presumably they needed western funding and expertise for a reason. Step three is to recognize that there's nothing China-specific about accidents in virus labs, and to solve the problem domestically as well. Then if it does happen again in China the rest of the world will be in a much stronger position to criticize a violation of global norms, and impose actual consequences. > with a stockpile of PPE and teams ready to respond quickly. Ugh please no not this again. PPE was worth nothing during COVID, so that won't help. Go prove it to yourself right now. Pick five random countries you don't know anything about. Pull up their reported COVID case number graphs from OWID or elsewhere. Now try and draw lines on the discontinuities where they added or removed mask mandates (or even lockdowns). Mass PPE deployment had no effect on case growth so you'll find it's impossible. If the Trump admin sold off stockpiles then it's not like the man himself made that call, it'd be because pre-COVID people understood there was no evidence to support it.

by nvm0n2 3y ago

mrguyorama 3y ago

Okay, let's assume China accidentally released COVID from that wuhan lab, and we have ironclad proof. How do you stop China from producing and leaking COVID 2.0? If China says "How dare you slander our good name and insinuate our scientific endeavors are done in any way that isn't safe", how do you stop them? We can "pressure" them all we want, China has made it clear that they are not afraid to be an antagonist of the US, they intend to be a threat to the US militarily within a decade or so, and we are already sanctioning them on the important stuff. What other levers can we pull? COVID started in China, and whether it happened in a wet market or a lab, poor processes are to blame. Unless we are willing to start shooting, we can not force China to tighten up such processes. I think they probably want to on their own, since COVID has not been fun for them, but we can't force China to change sovereign reality any more than they can force us to sell them AI chips. The only workable solution is to assume there WILL be future pandemics, and be prepared for them, with a stockpile of PPE and teams ready to respond quickly. Obama had both of these setup, but Trump killed them and sold off the PPE before COVID hit the radar.

nvm0n2 3y ago
> How do you stop China from producing and leaking COVID 2.0? Step one would be stop giving them money as a workaround for domestic bans. Step two would be to stop helping them by building high tech biolabs for them. Presumably they needed western funding and expertise for a reason. Step three is to recognize that there's nothing China-specific about accidents in virus labs, and to solve the problem domestically as well. Then if it does happen again in China the rest of the world will be in a much stronger position to criticize a violation of global norms, and impose actual consequences. > with a stockpile of PPE and teams ready to respond quickly. Ugh please no not this again. PPE was worth nothing during COVID, so that won't help. Go prove it to yourself right now. Pick five random countries you don't know anything about. Pull up their reported COVID case number graphs from OWID or elsewhere. Now try and draw lines on the discontinuities where they added or removed mask mandates (or even lockdowns). Mass PPE deployment had no effect on case growth so you'll find it's impossible. If the Trump admin sold off stockpiles then it's not like the man himself made that call, it'd be because pre-COVID people understood there was no evidence to support it.