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What you just demonstrated is called Survivor Bias or Survivorship Bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivor

What you just demonstrated is called Survivor Bias or Survivorship Bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias what about all the people who challenged what was "considered normal socially" and actually were proven wrong? One never hears about those.

notabee 3y ago
I'm not sure what kind of strawman you're building here. Are you thinking that I'm arguing that all or even most norm-breakers are proven correct? I am arguing only that some norm breakers turn out to be prescient and thus overconfidence based on norms alone is treacherous and bound to be proven wrong at times as we learn more, and Normalcy Bias often prevents people from adequately assessing that risk. Here's another wikipedia link! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
- Cupertino95014 3y ago
  A "strawman" ? you said, "One of the first proponents for hand washing and hygiene during medical practice wound up dying in a mental asylum." Maybe if you'd added, "of course, lots of people who wound up dying in a mental asylum are forgotten, with good reason" then I would've had nothing to say. As it was, you cited an example as though that proved anything.
nix0n 3y ago
> what about all the people who challenged what was "considered normal socially" and actually were proven wrong? There are not many of those, because of herd mentality. (Edit: I mean Normalcy Bias, thanks "notabee") If a person is unusual enough, they are dismissed as cranks without any sort of proof required.
- Cupertino95014 3y ago
  This isn't even a response to anything. notabee held up one example, which is relevant only if the argument was "everyone who challenges the norms is insane." That would be a counterexample, and only one is required. as for "There are not many of those" I don't even know what to say. Of course those people were forgotten and there are no citations, because they weren't newsworthy. That was the whole point.

notabee 3y ago

I'm not sure what kind of strawman you're building here. Are you thinking that I'm arguing that all or even most norm-breakers are proven correct? I am arguing only that some norm breakers turn out to be prescient and thus overconfidence based on norms alone is treacherous and bound to be proven wrong at times as we learn more, and Normalcy Bias often prevents people from adequately assessing that risk. Here's another wikipedia link! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

Cupertino95014 3y ago
A "strawman" ? you said, "One of the first proponents for hand washing and hygiene during medical practice wound up dying in a mental asylum." Maybe if you'd added, "of course, lots of people who wound up dying in a mental asylum are forgotten, with good reason" then I would've had nothing to say. As it was, you cited an example as though that proved anything.

nix0n 3y ago

> what about all the people who challenged what was "considered normal socially" and actually were proven wrong? There are not many of those, because of herd mentality. (Edit: I mean Normalcy Bias, thanks "notabee") If a person is unusual enough, they are dismissed as cranks without any sort of proof required.

Cupertino95014 3y ago
This isn't even a response to anything. notabee held up one example, which is relevant only if the argument was "everyone who challenges the norms is insane." That would be a counterexample, and only one is required. as for "There are not many of those" I don't even know what to say. Of course those people were forgotten and there are no citations, because they weren't newsworthy. That was the whole point.