4 ms·

The technology I always cite for something that had huge hype then died is 3D generally. I remember around the time Avatar was release everyone was convinced th

by kypro 3y ago

The technology I always cite for something that had huge hype then died is 3D generally. I remember around the time Avatar was release everyone was convinced that 3D was the next big thing. For several years after Avatar it was hard to watch movies that weren't showing in 3D. People rushed out to buy 3D TVs. Phones were featuring 3D displays. Cameras were boasting the ability to capture 3D pictures... I think 3D will eventually make a come back as VR technology progresses, but I genuinely didn't get the hype for 3D during that period.

sdf4j 3y ago
3D hype has a comeback every other decade. It never sticks.
- Qwertious 3y ago
  3D hype is going to come back soon, and it will stick - but instead of being in TVs, it'll be in VR headsets. It'll stick because 3D is inherently available in VR headsets, so there's no need to have a "3D VR version" and a "normal VR version"; if you're targeting VR at all, you might as well use its 3D. I think VR will (given time) succeed, because VR has a couple of benefits aside from 3D - first up, you get infinite screen-size. Second, it's more portable than basically anything else can be; even laptops are limited by their screen-size whereas future VR goggles could potentially fit in your pocket. Third, it integrates "companion apps" much better than a smartphone can, due to AR capability - you don't need to keep glancing between your <smart toaster> and your phone, you can just open up the toaster-VR app and look directly at the toaster. To be fair though, VR might skip a decade before it truly breaches mainstream (e.g. it might be simply too expensive with current tech, when a smartphone can be bought for <$100), although I doubt it. I think VR will become mainstream by 2030.
  - ilikerashers 3y ago
    I just hate the form factor for now. Putting on a VR headset is still like sticking a console onto your head as opposed to a pair of glasses. I'm very pro-VR, love "thrill of the fight" and "alyx" but sweating it out with a chunky plastic headset is not something I go back to regularly.
    - deprecative 3y ago
      This, sort of. I love the idea of VR and I've enjoyed my time with it. I've used a few of the Quests and PSVR and the issue, for me, is always that I get migraines from it, the heat is intense, and the weight of the device is uncomfortable even when barely noticeable. I also dislike the need to have some large room, or an empty room, or both, to really enjoy them. That's not an issue with VR in itself but it is a hurdle for me to adopt it. Once we add all these together it becomes a fun toy that has no real future in my home. With luck we'll advance the technology such that it can be used by more folks in interesting ways.
  - kypro 3y ago
    Yeah, this is my opinion too. I think as VR headsets become more common place over the next decade and that will likely create a market for 3D content. I doubt it it will be a significant market for some time, but I think VR technology is getting to the point now where people may start using headsets on flights soon and I think companies like Apple will start to invest in quality 3D content to encourage adoption of their VR devices. Although I'm still to be convinced people will want to use them at home over their tablets and TVs.
  - notahacker 3y ago
    The concept of headsets isn't exactly new though. We've made huge inroads into one of the constraints (the uncanny valley is rather deep and unpleasant, but modern consumer hardware can run ultra high resolutions in real time), but we're still stuck wiith motion sickness etc and a fondness for multitasking meaning a lot of people prefer the less immersive experience
  - JohnFen 3y ago
    I think it's the need for headsets that will keep VR/AR squarely in "niche" territory (mostly games). Perhaps a large niche, but niche nonetheless.
  - ratg13 3y ago
    Windows98 shipped with a VRML viewer. 3D internet was available to everyone 20 years ago, and nobody used it. This cycle has gone on longer than 3D TVs
    - retrocryptid 3y ago
      It's a long step from a VRML viewer to the 3D web. Sort of like it was a long step between JaM in the 70s and HTML over the internet in the 90s.
InSteady 3y ago
The first 3D movie I saw I knew it was just going to be a trend. I'll admit, it took longer to die than I expected, but it was inevitable. I'm still not convinced that 3D VR will be the next big thing any time soon. The experience of playing fruit ninja on the Wii is still better than playing the slicing game on the oculus. Show me some proper 2.5D augmented reality, that seems like a critical stepping stone (with far more practical use cases) first.
thiht 3y ago
> People rushed out to buy 3D TVs I thought 3D TVs were commercial failures, which is ultimately why 3D disappeared
mcv 3y ago
VR has definitely been just around the corner for several decades now. Well, it really is here now and there are tons of games that support it, but it's still a niche, and it may remain that way forever, because there simply are some intrinsic problems with it: You feel like you're really in that virtual world, in which you can look around and move around, but the moment you actually try to move around, you stumble over your own furniture that you can't see. It's either going to be a very thin illusion or you're going to need a ridiculously big and expensive setup. And the fact that you're blind to the world that your body is in, is always going to be awkward. It's a fun gimmick, but it's possible that it will always remain a gimmick.
- bemmu 3y ago
  Quest 2 has sold 10+ million units with over a billion in app sales. By far not mainstream, but it’s around the same as first generation iPhones, so over the coming years may be just crossing the threshold of entering to mainstream. I’ll make a guess that Quest 3 will have sold 30 million units by 2026, and perhaps the next one after that will be mainstream (xbox, playstation level) territory.
  - mcv 3y ago
    Could be, but the real test is whether it's practical. The iPhone was. I suspect VR is not. But I'm open to being wrong. It's absolutely cool, and I'd love to see more of it. But I haven't made the jump yet, and part of the reason is that being unable to see the controller or look at instructions is going to be an obstacle with a lot of games.
davidgerard 3y ago
> People rushed out to buy 3D TVs. well, one of the problem is that they sorta didn't. 3D TV was pushed hard in the channel, but consumers didn't really go for it.
pjc50 3y ago
This is definitely a technology that 5% of people really enjoyed and the majority never overcame the increased hassle, or in some cases motion sickness. It turns out that it's just not necessary - while we do have stereoscopic vision, most of our aesthetic enjoyment of images works just fine by interpreting a 2D scene.
diogenescynic 3y ago
I haven't heard a single person mention Apple's Vision Pro in person or even in media. No one really wants 3D or VR.
Eddy_Viscosity2 3y ago
This was pushed more by the theatres (extra fees on the ticket price) then pulled by the customers who wanted it. I personally really dislike the 3D experience and always seek out 2D showings - and fortunately that's easier and easier to do. The 3D sequences were often randomly tacked on and not critical to the story, and the rest of the time you had to watch the movie through tinted shades. No thanks.

by kypro 3y ago

sdf4j 3y ago

3D hype has a comeback every other decade. It never sticks.

Qwertious 3y ago
3D hype is going to come back soon, and it will stick - but instead of being in TVs, it'll be in VR headsets. It'll stick because 3D is inherently available in VR headsets, so there's no need to have a "3D VR version" and a "normal VR version"; if you're targeting VR at all, you might as well use its 3D. I think VR will (given time) succeed, because VR has a couple of benefits aside from 3D - first up, you get infinite screen-size. Second, it's more portable than basically anything else can be; even laptops are limited by their screen-size whereas future VR goggles could potentially fit in your pocket. Third, it integrates "companion apps" much better than a smartphone can, due to AR capability - you don't need to keep glancing between your <smart toaster> and your phone, you can just open up the toaster-VR app and look directly at the toaster. To be fair though, VR might skip a decade before it truly breaches mainstream (e.g. it might be simply too expensive with current tech, when a smartphone can be bought for <$100), although I doubt it. I think VR will become mainstream by 2030.
- ilikerashers 3y ago
  I just hate the form factor for now. Putting on a VR headset is still like sticking a console onto your head as opposed to a pair of glasses. I'm very pro-VR, love "thrill of the fight" and "alyx" but sweating it out with a chunky plastic headset is not something I go back to regularly.
  - deprecative 3y ago
    This, sort of. I love the idea of VR and I've enjoyed my time with it. I've used a few of the Quests and PSVR and the issue, for me, is always that I get migraines from it, the heat is intense, and the weight of the device is uncomfortable even when barely noticeable. I also dislike the need to have some large room, or an empty room, or both, to really enjoy them. That's not an issue with VR in itself but it is a hurdle for me to adopt it. Once we add all these together it becomes a fun toy that has no real future in my home. With luck we'll advance the technology such that it can be used by more folks in interesting ways.
- kypro 3y ago
  Yeah, this is my opinion too. I think as VR headsets become more common place over the next decade and that will likely create a market for 3D content. I doubt it it will be a significant market for some time, but I think VR technology is getting to the point now where people may start using headsets on flights soon and I think companies like Apple will start to invest in quality 3D content to encourage adoption of their VR devices. Although I'm still to be convinced people will want to use them at home over their tablets and TVs.
- notahacker 3y ago
  The concept of headsets isn't exactly new though. We've made huge inroads into one of the constraints (the uncanny valley is rather deep and unpleasant, but modern consumer hardware can run ultra high resolutions in real time), but we're still stuck wiith motion sickness etc and a fondness for multitasking meaning a lot of people prefer the less immersive experience
- JohnFen 3y ago
  I think it's the need for headsets that will keep VR/AR squarely in "niche" territory (mostly games). Perhaps a large niche, but niche nonetheless.
- ratg13 3y ago
  Windows98 shipped with a VRML viewer. 3D internet was available to everyone 20 years ago, and nobody used it. This cycle has gone on longer than 3D TVs
  - retrocryptid 3y ago
    It's a long step from a VRML viewer to the 3D web. Sort of like it was a long step between JaM in the 70s and HTML over the internet in the 90s.

InSteady 3y ago

The first 3D movie I saw I knew it was just going to be a trend. I'll admit, it took longer to die than I expected, but it was inevitable. I'm still not convinced that 3D VR will be the next big thing any time soon. The experience of playing fruit ninja on the Wii is still better than playing the slicing game on the oculus. Show me some proper 2.5D augmented reality, that seems like a critical stepping stone (with far more practical use cases) first.

thiht 3y ago

> People rushed out to buy 3D TVs I thought 3D TVs were commercial failures, which is ultimately why 3D disappeared

mcv 3y ago

VR has definitely been just around the corner for several decades now. Well, it really is here now and there are tons of games that support it, but it's still a niche, and it may remain that way forever, because there simply are some intrinsic problems with it: You feel like you're really in that virtual world, in which you can look around and move around, but the moment you actually try to move around, you stumble over your own furniture that you can't see. It's either going to be a very thin illusion or you're going to need a ridiculously big and expensive setup. And the fact that you're blind to the world that your body is in, is always going to be awkward. It's a fun gimmick, but it's possible that it will always remain a gimmick.

bemmu 3y ago
Quest 2 has sold 10+ million units with over a billion in app sales. By far not mainstream, but it’s around the same as first generation iPhones, so over the coming years may be just crossing the threshold of entering to mainstream. I’ll make a guess that Quest 3 will have sold 30 million units by 2026, and perhaps the next one after that will be mainstream (xbox, playstation level) territory.
- mcv 3y ago
  Could be, but the real test is whether it's practical. The iPhone was. I suspect VR is not. But I'm open to being wrong. It's absolutely cool, and I'd love to see more of it. But I haven't made the jump yet, and part of the reason is that being unable to see the controller or look at instructions is going to be an obstacle with a lot of games.

davidgerard 3y ago

> People rushed out to buy 3D TVs. well, one of the problem is that they sorta didn't. 3D TV was pushed hard in the channel, but consumers didn't really go for it.

pjc50 3y ago

This is definitely a technology that 5% of people really enjoyed and the majority never overcame the increased hassle, or in some cases motion sickness. It turns out that it's just not necessary - while we do have stereoscopic vision, most of our aesthetic enjoyment of images works just fine by interpreting a 2D scene.

diogenescynic 3y ago

I haven't heard a single person mention Apple's Vision Pro in person or even in media. No one really wants 3D or VR.

Eddy_Viscosity2 3y ago

This was pushed more by the theatres (extra fees on the ticket price) then pulled by the customers who wanted it. I personally really dislike the 3D experience and always seek out 2D showings - and fortunately that's easier and easier to do. The 3D sequences were often randomly tacked on and not critical to the story, and the rest of the time you had to watch the movie through tinted shades. No thanks.