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I would argue that trying to estimate the value of statistical engines by taking into account only GPT, text is a narrow domain. How about visuals like SD, text

I would argue that trying to estimate the value of statistical engines by taking into account only GPT, text is a narrow domain. How about visuals like SD, text like GPT, and music like Audiocraft? Music is still not very advanced but it's coming. Human voice audio as well should get into the mix, for audiobooks n stuff. How about word transcripts from videos etc? I use that all the time. If 18% of adults have used GPT at least once, that sounds accurate, but how about every other tool?

jacquesm 3y ago
Probably many more, but this one statistic was the one mentioned. And if that's the size of it then it is already very impressive. Phonograph, Radio, TV, Computers and Mobile telephony for instance took much, much longer to reach similar numbers.
- checkyoursudo 3y ago
  But most of those 18% have tried it on the web interface for free. The rest of those things you mention are/were very expensive, especially at first. My dad was lugging home expensive workstations from his office for years before anyone in my circles could really afford a home computer. Free+Hype makes me not that impressed with the number of people who have tried ChatGPT. Smartphone ubiquity today is way more amazing to me than a lot of people giving the weird new chatbot a try. If you can come back and tell me a year from now that even 10% of adults use something like ChatGPT once a month as anything other than a search engine replacement, I will be impressed. Really, I will. When the chatbot market gets bigger than a rounding error of the smartphone/tablet market, then I will be impressed. I think they are fun. I can and do run the big models locally on my research hardware. People in my lab are doing some pretty neat things with LLMs and other tools in the current hype cycle. I personally like them. But there is massive, so-far-unwarranted hype.
  - dghlsakjg 3y ago
    This is exactly it. Many people have become users of ChatGPT, in the same way that plenty of people became users of TV by watching it through the shop window. What percentage of people are paying users, or have somehow integrated the product of ChatGPT/AI into their lives/work beyond just telling it to make a picture of a horse with tentacles to see if it could.

jacquesm 3y ago

Probably many more, but this one statistic was the one mentioned. And if that's the size of it then it is already very impressive. Phonograph, Radio, TV, Computers and Mobile telephony for instance took much, much longer to reach similar numbers.

checkyoursudo 3y ago
But most of those 18% have tried it on the web interface for free. The rest of those things you mention are/were very expensive, especially at first. My dad was lugging home expensive workstations from his office for years before anyone in my circles could really afford a home computer. Free+Hype makes me not that impressed with the number of people who have tried ChatGPT. Smartphone ubiquity today is way more amazing to me than a lot of people giving the weird new chatbot a try. If you can come back and tell me a year from now that even 10% of adults use something like ChatGPT once a month as anything other than a search engine replacement, I will be impressed. Really, I will. When the chatbot market gets bigger than a rounding error of the smartphone/tablet market, then I will be impressed. I think they are fun. I can and do run the big models locally on my research hardware. People in my lab are doing some pretty neat things with LLMs and other tools in the current hype cycle. I personally like them. But there is massive, so-far-unwarranted hype.
- dghlsakjg 3y ago
  This is exactly it. Many people have become users of ChatGPT, in the same way that plenty of people became users of TV by watching it through the shop window. What percentage of people are paying users, or have somehow integrated the product of ChatGPT/AI into their lives/work beyond just telling it to make a picture of a horse with tentacles to see if it could.