3 ms·

> Most would save in some sort of instrument that would expose them to the stock market, money market, real estate etc. The historical returns are a aberration

> Most would save in some sort of instrument that would expose them to the stock market, money market, real estate etc. The historical returns are a aberration from a high growth world, populations are falling. They won't look like that in the coming decades. > Central banks normally have an inflation goal of 2% 2% CPI. CPI is a political measure first and a scientific measure second, from hedonic quality adjustment, owner imputed rent and the simple fact that most households don't have teams of economists planning their budget in order to maximally limit inflation means its far from a accurate barometer for the experiences of real people in the economy. The single income households of yore had a higher percentage of discretionary income than two income households today. CPI was unable to capture this change and finds those households are wealthier somehow.

alkonaut 3y ago
> high growth world, populations are falling. Apart from some countries with curious and massive drops in fertility coupled with low or no immigratoin, are there any signs that global population is falling rapidly? If anything it seems it's entering a pretty stagnant phase (for example in the US). Of course stagnation might still mean an aging population, which is a problem in some cases especially when it comes to pension systems, but it doesn't magically make the economy stop growing. GDP growth isn't merely population growth.
- willcipriano 3y ago
  If you look back historically as industrialization took place birth rates plummeted. So far this as been true in every culture that has industrialized. The industrial revolution is ongoing and much of the world will be "modern" within a few decades. Not only that, there is evidence birth rates fell when regions were conquered or captured by the Romans and Greeks. Birth rates fell during the end of golden ages in China, I believe birth rates fell during the renaissance. I believe there is some limiting factor in humans. We paradoxically make more children during bad times and stop producing them when times are good. We wouldn't be alone, crickets have genes that respond to cricket population levels, changing behavior, I think we have something similar. Also lots of environmental stuff is messing with fertility, plastics, etc.

alkonaut 3y ago

> high growth world, populations are falling. Apart from some countries with curious and massive drops in fertility coupled with low or no immigratoin, are there any signs that global population is falling rapidly? If anything it seems it's entering a pretty stagnant phase (for example in the US). Of course stagnation might still mean an aging population, which is a problem in some cases especially when it comes to pension systems, but it doesn't magically make the economy stop growing. GDP growth isn't merely population growth.

willcipriano 3y ago
If you look back historically as industrialization took place birth rates plummeted. So far this as been true in every culture that has industrialized. The industrial revolution is ongoing and much of the world will be "modern" within a few decades. Not only that, there is evidence birth rates fell when regions were conquered or captured by the Romans and Greeks. Birth rates fell during the end of golden ages in China, I believe birth rates fell during the renaissance. I believe there is some limiting factor in humans. We paradoxically make more children during bad times and stop producing them when times are good. We wouldn't be alone, crickets have genes that respond to cricket population levels, changing behavior, I think we have something similar. Also lots of environmental stuff is messing with fertility, plastics, etc.