5 ms·

From my understanding it mostly effects large pieces of metal like copper lines but would be unlikely to create a significant charge in small electronics and wo

From my understanding it mostly effects large pieces of metal like copper lines but would be unlikely to create a significant charge in small electronics and wouldn't destroy solar panels or the vast majority of components. Any transformer pieces that are in a disassembled state prior to the event would be easy to put together and bootstrap any such event. Some locations like inside concrete buildings or under ground would remain insulated from the event as well. Also it's likely that at the equator no effect will be felt.

Turskarama 3y ago
The thing is there are very few transformers in a disassembled state ready to go. Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Covid was enough to create an international backlog of transformers, and that was with a normal rate of attrition.
- FrustratedMonky 3y ago
  Exactly this. Lets say there were a few transformers that did survive. The parts to make new transformers are manufactured all over the place. So you would need to transport the 'working' transformers where they are needed to get power back to each plant that manufactures some singular component that goes into a new transformer. AND Transport them, when gas stations in-between are all also without power. The global supply chain is complicated and spread out. There are many places with single failure points. -> Don't have link, but isn't there an article titles something like "nobody can make a pencil anymore". Which traces out like a dozen connections for even such a simple thing. And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again.
  - LeonB 3y ago
    The essay is “I, Pencil” It’s a rollicking good read. Here it is in pdf form: https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf
    - peddling-brink 3y ago
      Fascinating way to lobby for the dissolution of the USPS. I rather wasn’t expecting that.
  - geocrasher 3y ago
    And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again. That made me think of this Everyday Engineering video "What Is A Black Start Of The Power Grid?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w
  - pixl97 3y ago
    Heh, when you start thinking about how much fuel is needed to make fuel it turns into a gnawing concern in your mind. Then add in how little food most people have available and you see how modern civilization will end.
- kwhitefoot 3y ago
  > Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Perhaps this is an argument for making rooftop solar with storage compulsory then at least we would be able to keep the lights on. Assuming that the building could be automatically isolated quickly enough of course.
dan_mctree 3y ago
There's not nearly enough transformers in reserve to properly rebuild the grid and you can't always just drop in and replace either. New transformers are also not currently able to be produced fast, and having society collapse around you probably wouldn't help while trying to increase their production rate. If we'd lose most transformers, it could be many months or years before large regions could see their power back, enough time to cause vast damage directly and indirectly.
- dwighttk 3y ago
  are uninstalled transformers even safe?
  - LeonB 3y ago
    Provided they’re not connected to lengths of conducting material, they ought to be ok. Hard to be certain though, as transformers are more than meets the eye.
    - sulam 3y ago
      Right, you have to avoid the Decepticons.
    - kwhitefoot 3y ago
      > transformers are more than meets the eye. Really? Transformers are very simple electrical machines. The design process is complex but the object itself is made of mild steel for the tank and supporting frameworks, special steel for the core, copper or aluminium for the windings, paper and resin for insulation, and oil for insulation and cooling. There are a few ancillary components to do with detecting faults and switching taps and sometimes pumps to circulate the oil through radiators. Apart from the pumps, circulating oil, and tap changer, there are no moving parts. There are no compulsory electronic components in even the biggest transformers. Apart from improvements in material quality and the design process a power or distribution transformer built now is really not very different from those built a hundred years ago. In fact there are many transformers that were built fifty years ago that are still in service. Occasionally such transformers are repaired rather than replaced when they fail, quite often the original drawings are still available.
Tangurena2 3y ago
After a couple incidents where snipers shot at substations or hackers turned stuff off, there was a burst of worry about the fragility of our electrical grid. Of the large transformers that make up substations, almost all of them are unique. There is no inventory of spare transformers. Each one is custom made and takes months. The small transformers you see on poles are made by the thousand, and stocked at every utility. The small ones are not the problem. The big ones - that are the size of SUVs and houses - are the ones that the grid depends on.
- maxerickson 3y ago
  There's a difference between made to order and bespoke. Of course, most of the discourse is hand wavy speculation, vs characterization of the existing stock of transformers, like what standards they are built to and the magnitude of an event that would certainly damage them.
  - kwhitefoot 3y ago
    Most large transformers are actually unique but this has little to do with the characteristics of the transformer. It is mostly to do with optimizing the design to minimize the total lifetime cost. This requires a new design for each transformer because the relative prices of core steel and copper or aluminium varies over time. When copper is cheap the total cost will be lower if you use more copper and less core steel for instance while the opposite will be true if the copper price is high. If cost is not as important as prompt delivery the manufacturer can often just take an existing design and repeat it.
- dgroshev 3y ago
  I doubt that it's strictly true seeing how quickly Ukraine was replacing their transformers after Russia deliberately targeted them. As far as I can tell it was a strain on the global supply, but evidently not insurmountable.

Turskarama 3y ago

The thing is there are very few transformers in a disassembled state ready to go. Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Covid was enough to create an international backlog of transformers, and that was with a normal rate of attrition.

FrustratedMonky 3y ago
Exactly this. Lets say there were a few transformers that did survive. The parts to make new transformers are manufactured all over the place. So you would need to transport the 'working' transformers where they are needed to get power back to each plant that manufactures some singular component that goes into a new transformer. AND Transport them, when gas stations in-between are all also without power. The global supply chain is complicated and spread out. There are many places with single failure points. -> Don't have link, but isn't there an article titles something like "nobody can make a pencil anymore". Which traces out like a dozen connections for even such a simple thing. And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again.
- LeonB 3y ago
  The essay is “I, Pencil” It’s a rollicking good read. Here it is in pdf form: https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf
  - peddling-brink 3y ago
    Fascinating way to lobby for the dissolution of the USPS. I rather wasn’t expecting that.
- geocrasher 3y ago
  And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again. That made me think of this Everyday Engineering video "What Is A Black Start Of The Power Grid?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w
- pixl97 3y ago
  Heh, when you start thinking about how much fuel is needed to make fuel it turns into a gnawing concern in your mind. Then add in how little food most people have available and you see how modern civilization will end.
kwhitefoot 3y ago
> Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Perhaps this is an argument for making rooftop solar with storage compulsory then at least we would be able to keep the lights on. Assuming that the building could be automatically isolated quickly enough of course.

dan_mctree 3y ago

There's not nearly enough transformers in reserve to properly rebuild the grid and you can't always just drop in and replace either. New transformers are also not currently able to be produced fast, and having society collapse around you probably wouldn't help while trying to increase their production rate. If we'd lose most transformers, it could be many months or years before large regions could see their power back, enough time to cause vast damage directly and indirectly.

dwighttk 3y ago
are uninstalled transformers even safe?
- LeonB 3y ago
  Provided they’re not connected to lengths of conducting material, they ought to be ok. Hard to be certain though, as transformers are more than meets the eye.
  - sulam 3y ago
    Right, you have to avoid the Decepticons.
  - kwhitefoot 3y ago
    > transformers are more than meets the eye. Really? Transformers are very simple electrical machines. The design process is complex but the object itself is made of mild steel for the tank and supporting frameworks, special steel for the core, copper or aluminium for the windings, paper and resin for insulation, and oil for insulation and cooling. There are a few ancillary components to do with detecting faults and switching taps and sometimes pumps to circulate the oil through radiators. Apart from the pumps, circulating oil, and tap changer, there are no moving parts. There are no compulsory electronic components in even the biggest transformers. Apart from improvements in material quality and the design process a power or distribution transformer built now is really not very different from those built a hundred years ago. In fact there are many transformers that were built fifty years ago that are still in service. Occasionally such transformers are repaired rather than replaced when they fail, quite often the original drawings are still available.

Tangurena2 3y ago

After a couple incidents where snipers shot at substations or hackers turned stuff off, there was a burst of worry about the fragility of our electrical grid. Of the large transformers that make up substations, almost all of them are unique. There is no inventory of spare transformers. Each one is custom made and takes months. The small transformers you see on poles are made by the thousand, and stocked at every utility. The small ones are not the problem. The big ones - that are the size of SUVs and houses - are the ones that the grid depends on.

maxerickson 3y ago
There's a difference between made to order and bespoke. Of course, most of the discourse is hand wavy speculation, vs characterization of the existing stock of transformers, like what standards they are built to and the magnitude of an event that would certainly damage them.
- kwhitefoot 3y ago
  Most large transformers are actually unique but this has little to do with the characteristics of the transformer. It is mostly to do with optimizing the design to minimize the total lifetime cost. This requires a new design for each transformer because the relative prices of core steel and copper or aluminium varies over time. When copper is cheap the total cost will be lower if you use more copper and less core steel for instance while the opposite will be true if the copper price is high. If cost is not as important as prompt delivery the manufacturer can often just take an existing design and repeat it.
dgroshev 3y ago
I doubt that it's strictly true seeing how quickly Ukraine was replacing their transformers after Russia deliberately targeted them. As far as I can tell it was a strain on the global supply, but evidently not insurmountable.