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The big risk is a bunch of transformers blow up, essentially taking the grid down. Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the

The big risk is a bunch of transformers blow up, essentially taking the grid down. Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid... this would likely set civilization back pretty far, a new dark age is far from impossible.

hparadiz 3y ago
From my understanding it mostly effects large pieces of metal like copper lines but would be unlikely to create a significant charge in small electronics and wouldn't destroy solar panels or the vast majority of components. Any transformer pieces that are in a disassembled state prior to the event would be easy to put together and bootstrap any such event. Some locations like inside concrete buildings or under ground would remain insulated from the event as well. Also it's likely that at the equator no effect will be felt.
- Turskarama 3y ago
  The thing is there are very few transformers in a disassembled state ready to go. Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Covid was enough to create an international backlog of transformers, and that was with a normal rate of attrition.
  - FrustratedMonky 3y ago
    Exactly this. Lets say there were a few transformers that did survive. The parts to make new transformers are manufactured all over the place. So you would need to transport the 'working' transformers where they are needed to get power back to each plant that manufactures some singular component that goes into a new transformer. AND Transport them, when gas stations in-between are all also without power. The global supply chain is complicated and spread out. There are many places with single failure points. -> Don't have link, but isn't there an article titles something like "nobody can make a pencil anymore". Which traces out like a dozen connections for even such a simple thing. And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again.
    - LeonB 3y ago
      The essay is “I, Pencil” It’s a rollicking good read. Here it is in pdf form: https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf
      - peddling-brink 3y ago
        Fascinating way to lobby for the dissolution of the USPS. I rather wasn’t expecting that.
    - geocrasher 3y ago
      And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again. That made me think of this Everyday Engineering video "What Is A Black Start Of The Power Grid?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w
    - pixl97 3y ago
      Heh, when you start thinking about how much fuel is needed to make fuel it turns into a gnawing concern in your mind. Then add in how little food most people have available and you see how modern civilization will end.
  - kwhitefoot 3y ago
    > Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Perhaps this is an argument for making rooftop solar with storage compulsory then at least we would be able to keep the lights on. Assuming that the building could be automatically isolated quickly enough of course.
- dan_mctree 3y ago
  There's not nearly enough transformers in reserve to properly rebuild the grid and you can't always just drop in and replace either. New transformers are also not currently able to be produced fast, and having society collapse around you probably wouldn't help while trying to increase their production rate. If we'd lose most transformers, it could be many months or years before large regions could see their power back, enough time to cause vast damage directly and indirectly.
  - dwighttk 3y ago
    are uninstalled transformers even safe?
    - LeonB 3y ago
      Provided they’re not connected to lengths of conducting material, they ought to be ok. Hard to be certain though, as transformers are more than meets the eye.
      - sulam 3y ago
        Right, you have to avoid the Decepticons.
      - kwhitefoot 3y ago
        > transformers are more than meets the eye. Really? Transformers are very simple electrical machines. The design process is complex but the object itself is made of mild steel for the tank and supporting frameworks, special steel for the core, copper or aluminium for the windings, paper and resin for insulation, and oil for insulation and cooling. There are a few ancillary components to do with detecting faults and switching taps and sometimes pumps to circulate the oil through radiators. Apart from the pumps, circulating oil, and tap changer, there are no moving parts. There are no compulsory electronic components in even the biggest transformers. Apart from improvements in material quality and the design process a power or distribution transformer built now is really not very different from those built a hundred years ago. In fact there are many transformers that were built fifty years ago that are still in service. Occasionally such transformers are repaired rather than replaced when they fail, quite often the original drawings are still available.
- Tangurena2 3y ago
  After a couple incidents where snipers shot at substations or hackers turned stuff off, there was a burst of worry about the fragility of our electrical grid. Of the large transformers that make up substations, almost all of them are unique. There is no inventory of spare transformers. Each one is custom made and takes months. The small transformers you see on poles are made by the thousand, and stocked at every utility. The small ones are not the problem. The big ones - that are the size of SUVs and houses - are the ones that the grid depends on.
  - maxerickson 3y ago
    There's a difference between made to order and bespoke. Of course, most of the discourse is hand wavy speculation, vs characterization of the existing stock of transformers, like what standards they are built to and the magnitude of an event that would certainly damage them.
    - kwhitefoot 3y ago
      Most large transformers are actually unique but this has little to do with the characteristics of the transformer. It is mostly to do with optimizing the design to minimize the total lifetime cost. This requires a new design for each transformer because the relative prices of core steel and copper or aluminium varies over time. When copper is cheap the total cost will be lower if you use more copper and less core steel for instance while the opposite will be true if the copper price is high. If cost is not as important as prompt delivery the manufacturer can often just take an existing design and repeat it.
  - dgroshev 3y ago
    I doubt that it's strictly true seeing how quickly Ukraine was replacing their transformers after Russia deliberately targeted them. As far as I can tell it was a strain on the global supply, but evidently not insurmountable.
dividedbyzero 3y ago
Aren't transformers protected from this sort of thing nowadays?
- forgetfreeman 3y ago
  No.
- dghughes 3y ago
  I'm not sure if you can. Transformers are basically two differing loops of wire separated by a space. It relies on the EMF of each loop to transfer energy from one loop to the other. If a strong enough pulse comes along it may be too powerful to block. Like trying to stop lightning with a $100 UPS or any UPS to stop a millions of volts and tens of thousands of amps.
  - pixl97 3y ago
    If its disconnected from a grid and grounded it shouldn't be an issue... and if the pulse is that powerful to deal with it being grounded it's very likely we've lost most of the atmosphere at that point making the entire subject moot.
    - dghughes 3y ago
      If it's disconnected from the grid why would we be concerned about it? The question as I understand is about protecting active in-use equipment.
Cthulhu_ 3y ago
> a new dark age is far from impossible. Nah, it's just transformers and the power grid, that can be fixed pretty quickly - see the response after natural disasters, Ukraine's power grid being directly attacked, etc. The only limiting factor would be the availability of spare parts and personnel.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- Aerbil313 3y ago
  A global disaster is very different from a local one. I suggest you review your faith in The Almighty We. Civilization has never been more fragile in history than it is now.
  - TechBro8615 3y ago
    Would it be global or would it only be the side of the Earth that was facing the Sun at the time of impact?
    - Turskarama 3y ago
      It hardly matters. Pick a hemisphere, you will probably hit 2 of China, the US, and Europe. No matter what a large chunk of the worlds manufacturing is going down.
    - pixl97 3y ago
      Not the side, it's about the hemisphere. And in general the northern hemisphere is weaker to intrusions by powerful electromagnetic events (would have to lookup why again). It also turns out that most of the worlds population is in the northern hemisphere above the tropic of cancer.
  - falconinthesun 3y ago
    But there's nothing in the article to suggest that these events actually affected the entire world. Most of the analysis seems to have been carried out in the northern hemisphere. If one of these events happened, perhaps it'd affect only one hemisphere or we'd have portions of the world unaffected or partially unaffected and able to provide assistance.
borbulon 3y ago
having lived in the tech age, I'm not completely against that idea.
- replygirl 3y ago
  starvation and dysentery at the same time appeal to you?
  - borbulon 3y ago
    you're assuming that without electricity, I don't know how to take care of myself.
AtlasBarfed 3y ago
Sooo.... widespread rooftop solar would probably help the resilience of at least domestic power?
- lxgr 3y ago
  Can common rooftop solar setups actually deliver power locally with the grid being down? I would imagine them taking at least frequency synchronization from the grid, and probably also not faring too well without the grid to compensate for variable output when a cloud passes over them etc.
  - verve_rat 3y ago
    Batteries and inverters would be common in most installations, surly?
    - bee_rider 3y ago
      Batteries can cost more than the solar cells themselves. Plus, the older lead-acid batteries required some maintenance. The easy path is to just stay grid tied and not bother with a battery. If all the power lines on earth went down, I bet communities would connect people with panels to people with batteries, though, somehow or another.
  - bee_rider 3y ago
    Typically solar will not feed back into the grid if it is down, to avoid energizing the lines and zapping repair crews. This is an intentional design, I’m sure anywhere with engineers or hackers could work around it. You probably want a battery, though.
  - ianburrell 3y ago
    Most rooftop solar can't produce power without the grid. They use cheap inverters that synchronize frequency from the grid. They also don't produce enough current to handle the peak loads from large appliances starting. The battery provides the current peaks. It is possible to buy more expensive off-grid inverters.
Aardwolf 3y ago
> Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid That sounds exactly like what happens in the game Satisfactory when your nuclear power plant got clogged and you only find out when it's too late!
- pixl97 3y ago
  Thank goodness v8 has grid priorities. Though it would be a massive pain in the ass if you had to go across the map and replace each one of those transformers if an event happened.
hattmall 3y ago
Don't modern transformers have surge decoupling devices? The same thing happens with lightning and long transmission lines and isn't that why lights will flicker during storms.
- dboreham 3y ago
  Yes but not the same order of magnitude transient as we're discussing here. E.g. a fuse isn't a fuse if you force a gazillion joule transient through it. Current keep on flowing. Same with shunt protection: it can't shunt all the transient energy before it vaporizes.
ianburrell 3y ago
I read that it is fairly easy to protect equipment by grounding it. But that requires properly grounding lots of gear, and the power companies aren't willing to spend the money. Also, the Carrington event has plenty of notice before arrives at Earth. It would be possible to shut down the grid, and maybe disconnect all the transformers. It would require a cold start, but better to shutdown for a day than forever. The problem is that this requires the power companies to practice for a shutdown and cold start.
- pixl97 3y ago
  A Carrington event has notice, but there are plenty of, rather low probability, space weather events with no notice that can do the same thing. It's best if you're not facing down the barrel of a quasar.
rootusrootus 3y ago
Fixing the transformers would be the difficult part. Restarting a completely blacked out grid is a scenario we have plans for. Off the top of my head, I know for sure that Bonneville Dam has black start turbines, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if all major hydroelectric dams provide the same ability.
zikduruqe 3y ago
This will be the most probably scenario based on this book which as based on an EMP, but regardless the same outcome - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After Then you will probably want have - https://www.howtoinventeverything.com https://www.howtoinventeverything.com

hparadiz 3y ago

From my understanding it mostly effects large pieces of metal like copper lines but would be unlikely to create a significant charge in small electronics and wouldn't destroy solar panels or the vast majority of components. Any transformer pieces that are in a disassembled state prior to the event would be easy to put together and bootstrap any such event. Some locations like inside concrete buildings or under ground would remain insulated from the event as well. Also it's likely that at the equator no effect will be felt.

Turskarama 3y ago
The thing is there are very few transformers in a disassembled state ready to go. Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Covid was enough to create an international backlog of transformers, and that was with a normal rate of attrition.
- FrustratedMonky 3y ago
  Exactly this. Lets say there were a few transformers that did survive. The parts to make new transformers are manufactured all over the place. So you would need to transport the 'working' transformers where they are needed to get power back to each plant that manufactures some singular component that goes into a new transformer. AND Transport them, when gas stations in-between are all also without power. The global supply chain is complicated and spread out. There are many places with single failure points. -> Don't have link, but isn't there an article titles something like "nobody can make a pencil anymore". Which traces out like a dozen connections for even such a simple thing. And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again.
  - LeonB 3y ago
    The essay is “I, Pencil” It’s a rollicking good read. Here it is in pdf form: https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf
    - peddling-brink 3y ago
      Fascinating way to lobby for the dissolution of the USPS. I rather wasn’t expecting that.
  - geocrasher 3y ago
    And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again. That made me think of this Everyday Engineering video "What Is A Black Start Of The Power Grid?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w
  - pixl97 3y ago
    Heh, when you start thinking about how much fuel is needed to make fuel it turns into a gnawing concern in your mind. Then add in how little food most people have available and you see how modern civilization will end.
- kwhitefoot 3y ago
  > Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Perhaps this is an argument for making rooftop solar with storage compulsory then at least we would be able to keep the lights on. Assuming that the building could be automatically isolated quickly enough of course.
dan_mctree 3y ago
There's not nearly enough transformers in reserve to properly rebuild the grid and you can't always just drop in and replace either. New transformers are also not currently able to be produced fast, and having society collapse around you probably wouldn't help while trying to increase their production rate. If we'd lose most transformers, it could be many months or years before large regions could see their power back, enough time to cause vast damage directly and indirectly.
- dwighttk 3y ago
  are uninstalled transformers even safe?
  - LeonB 3y ago
    Provided they’re not connected to lengths of conducting material, they ought to be ok. Hard to be certain though, as transformers are more than meets the eye.
    - sulam 3y ago
      Right, you have to avoid the Decepticons.
    - kwhitefoot 3y ago
      > transformers are more than meets the eye. Really? Transformers are very simple electrical machines. The design process is complex but the object itself is made of mild steel for the tank and supporting frameworks, special steel for the core, copper or aluminium for the windings, paper and resin for insulation, and oil for insulation and cooling. There are a few ancillary components to do with detecting faults and switching taps and sometimes pumps to circulate the oil through radiators. Apart from the pumps, circulating oil, and tap changer, there are no moving parts. There are no compulsory electronic components in even the biggest transformers. Apart from improvements in material quality and the design process a power or distribution transformer built now is really not very different from those built a hundred years ago. In fact there are many transformers that were built fifty years ago that are still in service. Occasionally such transformers are repaired rather than replaced when they fail, quite often the original drawings are still available.
Tangurena2 3y ago
After a couple incidents where snipers shot at substations or hackers turned stuff off, there was a burst of worry about the fragility of our electrical grid. Of the large transformers that make up substations, almost all of them are unique. There is no inventory of spare transformers. Each one is custom made and takes months. The small transformers you see on poles are made by the thousand, and stocked at every utility. The small ones are not the problem. The big ones - that are the size of SUVs and houses - are the ones that the grid depends on.
- maxerickson 3y ago
  There's a difference between made to order and bespoke. Of course, most of the discourse is hand wavy speculation, vs characterization of the existing stock of transformers, like what standards they are built to and the magnitude of an event that would certainly damage them.
  - kwhitefoot 3y ago
    Most large transformers are actually unique but this has little to do with the characteristics of the transformer. It is mostly to do with optimizing the design to minimize the total lifetime cost. This requires a new design for each transformer because the relative prices of core steel and copper or aluminium varies over time. When copper is cheap the total cost will be lower if you use more copper and less core steel for instance while the opposite will be true if the copper price is high. If cost is not as important as prompt delivery the manufacturer can often just take an existing design and repeat it.
- dgroshev 3y ago
  I doubt that it's strictly true seeing how quickly Ukraine was replacing their transformers after Russia deliberately targeted them. As far as I can tell it was a strain on the global supply, but evidently not insurmountable.

dividedbyzero 3y ago

Aren't transformers protected from this sort of thing nowadays?

forgetfreeman 3y ago
No.
dghughes 3y ago
I'm not sure if you can. Transformers are basically two differing loops of wire separated by a space. It relies on the EMF of each loop to transfer energy from one loop to the other. If a strong enough pulse comes along it may be too powerful to block. Like trying to stop lightning with a $100 UPS or any UPS to stop a millions of volts and tens of thousands of amps.
- pixl97 3y ago
  If its disconnected from a grid and grounded it shouldn't be an issue... and if the pulse is that powerful to deal with it being grounded it's very likely we've lost most of the atmosphere at that point making the entire subject moot.
  - dghughes 3y ago
    If it's disconnected from the grid why would we be concerned about it? The question as I understand is about protecting active in-use equipment.

Cthulhu_ 3y ago

> a new dark age is far from impossible. Nah, it's just transformers and the power grid, that can be fixed pretty quickly - see the response after natural disasters, Ukraine's power grid being directly attacked, etc. The only limiting factor would be the availability of spare parts and personnel.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Aerbil313 3y ago
A global disaster is very different from a local one. I suggest you review your faith in The Almighty We. Civilization has never been more fragile in history than it is now.
- TechBro8615 3y ago
  Would it be global or would it only be the side of the Earth that was facing the Sun at the time of impact?
  - Turskarama 3y ago
    It hardly matters. Pick a hemisphere, you will probably hit 2 of China, the US, and Europe. No matter what a large chunk of the worlds manufacturing is going down.
  - pixl97 3y ago
    Not the side, it's about the hemisphere. And in general the northern hemisphere is weaker to intrusions by powerful electromagnetic events (would have to lookup why again). It also turns out that most of the worlds population is in the northern hemisphere above the tropic of cancer.
- falconinthesun 3y ago
  But there's nothing in the article to suggest that these events actually affected the entire world. Most of the analysis seems to have been carried out in the northern hemisphere. If one of these events happened, perhaps it'd affect only one hemisphere or we'd have portions of the world unaffected or partially unaffected and able to provide assistance.

borbulon 3y ago

having lived in the tech age, I'm not completely against that idea.

replygirl 3y ago
starvation and dysentery at the same time appeal to you?
- borbulon 3y ago
  you're assuming that without electricity, I don't know how to take care of myself.

AtlasBarfed 3y ago

Sooo.... widespread rooftop solar would probably help the resilience of at least domestic power?

lxgr 3y ago
Can common rooftop solar setups actually deliver power locally with the grid being down? I would imagine them taking at least frequency synchronization from the grid, and probably also not faring too well without the grid to compensate for variable output when a cloud passes over them etc.
- verve_rat 3y ago
  Batteries and inverters would be common in most installations, surly?
  - bee_rider 3y ago
    Batteries can cost more than the solar cells themselves. Plus, the older lead-acid batteries required some maintenance. The easy path is to just stay grid tied and not bother with a battery. If all the power lines on earth went down, I bet communities would connect people with panels to people with batteries, though, somehow or another.
- bee_rider 3y ago
  Typically solar will not feed back into the grid if it is down, to avoid energizing the lines and zapping repair crews. This is an intentional design, I’m sure anywhere with engineers or hackers could work around it. You probably want a battery, though.
- ianburrell 3y ago
  Most rooftop solar can't produce power without the grid. They use cheap inverters that synchronize frequency from the grid. They also don't produce enough current to handle the peak loads from large appliances starting. The battery provides the current peaks. It is possible to buy more expensive off-grid inverters.

Aardwolf 3y ago

> Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid That sounds exactly like what happens in the game Satisfactory when your nuclear power plant got clogged and you only find out when it's too late!

pixl97 3y ago
Thank goodness v8 has grid priorities. Though it would be a massive pain in the ass if you had to go across the map and replace each one of those transformers if an event happened.

hattmall 3y ago

Don't modern transformers have surge decoupling devices? The same thing happens with lightning and long transmission lines and isn't that why lights will flicker during storms.

dboreham 3y ago
Yes but not the same order of magnitude transient as we're discussing here. E.g. a fuse isn't a fuse if you force a gazillion joule transient through it. Current keep on flowing. Same with shunt protection: it can't shunt all the transient energy before it vaporizes.

ianburrell 3y ago

I read that it is fairly easy to protect equipment by grounding it. But that requires properly grounding lots of gear, and the power companies aren't willing to spend the money. Also, the Carrington event has plenty of notice before arrives at Earth. It would be possible to shut down the grid, and maybe disconnect all the transformers. It would require a cold start, but better to shutdown for a day than forever. The problem is that this requires the power companies to practice for a shutdown and cold start.

pixl97 3y ago
A Carrington event has notice, but there are plenty of, rather low probability, space weather events with no notice that can do the same thing. It's best if you're not facing down the barrel of a quasar.

rootusrootus 3y ago

Fixing the transformers would be the difficult part. Restarting a completely blacked out grid is a scenario we have plans for. Off the top of my head, I know for sure that Bonneville Dam has black start turbines, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if all major hydroelectric dams provide the same ability.

zikduruqe 3y ago

This will be the most probably scenario based on this book which as based on an EMP, but regardless the same outcome - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After Then you will probably want have - https://www.howtoinventeverything.com https://www.howtoinventeverything.com