4 ms·
Imagine winning the online bet after it drops to < 5% confidence. Yum. Why are we supposed to believe this new paper? Realistically there’s nothing here. This
by sillysaurusx 3y ago
Imagine winning the online bet after it drops to < 5% confidence. Yum.
Why are we supposed to believe this new paper? Realistically there’s nothing here. This is an announcement of an announcement.
All we can do is speculate. And I speculate that if there were a room temperature superconductor, it would have been proven in the first paper. That’s the point of a paper.
EDIT: actually it’s 1%, so you’d 100x your money: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18177/room-temp-superconductor-replicated-by-2025/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18177/room-temp-supercon...
- neftaly 3y agoIf this article is true (i.e. the quoted bullet points were actually said by Kwon) I would feel a bit more optimistic. I haven't checked the veracity at all. The metaculus wager says replication within 15 months. Point #2 #3 #5 & #8(!) is that this stuff is really really hard to make. Point #6 is pretty noncommittal about how long till the recipe is published (in the context of 20 years of work).