https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis I forget where this is from originally,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis I forget where this is from originally, but the EMH holds if enough of people believe it to be false (and act to seek economic profit - thus driving profits down through competition) and falters if too many people take efficiency as a given. (Mind-this economic profit not the usual profit.) I wonder whether there’s something similar with too many people trying to develop “Fed brain” and acting as if they know what the Fed will do. Maybe they stave off what the Fed needs to do by acting as though it already did whatever. Or maybe they prolong the equilibrium finding period by acting as a tertiary point.