5 ms·

Sounds like it belongs on the list: https://extinctionclock.org/#show https://extinctionclock.org/#show

chownie 3y ago
The latest "confirmed" Doomsday date on that page references a quote that doesn't contain a Doomsday date, so the site owner has wilfully misread the quote to create one.
ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
That list appears to be cherry picked to support a narrative. It doesn't include e.g. Exxon's predictions: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-climate-change-global-warming-research https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-clima...
1shooner 3y ago
As a climate change skeptic I want a curated list of failed or vague climate predictions So I can maintain cognitive resonance.
- more_corn 3y ago
  Do tell. What part of it are you skeptical about? That the greenhouse effect is real? That temperatures are rising? That extreme weather events will continue to increase in frequency and severity? That raising temperatures are melting the tundra and releasing more methane causes a feedback loop? That ice sheets are receding all over the world? These all seem to be well supported by facts. I’m curious about what the seed of your skepticism is, what planted it what previously cherished beliefs it supports.
  - dbsights 3y ago
    I thought this was quite a good interview, summing the rational, skeptic position. https://youtu.be/l90FpjPGLBE?si=v8fwGFWT-yLPpKgC https://youtu.be/l90FpjPGLBE?si=v8fwGFWT-yLPpKgC
- irdc 3y ago
  What would convince you?
Volundr 3y ago
This site is pretty bad. Every prediction is a "doomsday" prediction, and it simply marks them as wrong if the world hasn't ended by the specified date. Example, predicting the Hoover damn (Lake Mead) won't provide electricity if no action is taken. There have been significant efforts at water conservation. So now it's a "missed" prediction. Or predictions that X could happen in as little as Y years, establishing a lower bound. Y years passed, we'll call it missed. It would be interesting to see a meta-analysis of predictions and how accurate they turned out to be, but that isn't what this site is.

The latest "confirmed" Doomsday date on that page references a quote that doesn't contain a Doomsday date, so the site owner has wilfully misread the quote to create one.

ndsipa_pomu 3y ago

That list appears to be cherry picked to support a narrative. It doesn't include e.g. Exxon's predictions: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-climate-change-global-warming-research https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-clima...

1shooner 3y ago

As a climate change skeptic I want a curated list of failed or vague climate predictions So I can maintain cognitive resonance.

more_corn 3y ago
Do tell. What part of it are you skeptical about? That the greenhouse effect is real? That temperatures are rising? That extreme weather events will continue to increase in frequency and severity? That raising temperatures are melting the tundra and releasing more methane causes a feedback loop? That ice sheets are receding all over the world? These all seem to be well supported by facts. I’m curious about what the seed of your skepticism is, what planted it what previously cherished beliefs it supports.
- dbsights 3y ago
  I thought this was quite a good interview, summing the rational, skeptic position. https://youtu.be/l90FpjPGLBE?si=v8fwGFWT-yLPpKgC https://youtu.be/l90FpjPGLBE?si=v8fwGFWT-yLPpKgC
irdc 3y ago
What would convince you?

Volundr 3y ago

This site is pretty bad. Every prediction is a "doomsday" prediction, and it simply marks them as wrong if the world hasn't ended by the specified date. Example, predicting the Hoover damn (Lake Mead) won't provide electricity if no action is taken. There have been significant efforts at water conservation. So now it's a "missed" prediction. Or predictions that X could happen in as little as Y years, establishing a lower bound. Y years passed, we'll call it missed. It would be interesting to see a meta-analysis of predictions and how accurate they turned out to be, but that isn't what this site is.