4 ms·

Where dangerous heat is surging

47 points by ndsipa_pomu 3y ago

monsecchris 3y ago
Sounds like it belongs on the list: https://extinctionclock.org/#show https://extinctionclock.org/#show
- chownie 3y ago
  The latest "confirmed" Doomsday date on that page references a quote that doesn't contain a Doomsday date, so the site owner has wilfully misread the quote to create one.
- ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
  That list appears to be cherry picked to support a narrative. It doesn't include e.g. Exxon's predictions: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-climate-change-global-warming-research https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-clima...
- 1shooner 3y ago
  As a climate change skeptic I want a curated list of failed or vague climate predictions So I can maintain cognitive resonance.
  - more_corn 3y ago
    Do tell. What part of it are you skeptical about? That the greenhouse effect is real? That temperatures are rising? That extreme weather events will continue to increase in frequency and severity? That raising temperatures are melting the tundra and releasing more methane causes a feedback loop? That ice sheets are receding all over the world? These all seem to be well supported by facts. I’m curious about what the seed of your skepticism is, what planted it what previously cherished beliefs it supports.
    - dbsights 3y ago
      I thought this was quite a good interview, summing the rational, skeptic position. https://youtu.be/l90FpjPGLBE?si=v8fwGFWT-yLPpKgC https://youtu.be/l90FpjPGLBE?si=v8fwGFWT-yLPpKgC
  - irdc 3y ago
    What would convince you?
- Volundr 3y ago
  This site is pretty bad. Every prediction is a "doomsday" prediction, and it simply marks them as wrong if the world hasn't ended by the specified date. Example, predicting the Hoover damn (Lake Mead) won't provide electricity if no action is taken. There have been significant efforts at water conservation. So now it's a "missed" prediction. Or predictions that X could happen in as little as Y years, establishing a lower bound. Y years passed, we'll call it missed. It would be interesting to see a meta-analysis of predictions and how accurate they turned out to be, but that isn't what this site is.
rcarr 3y ago
https://archive.ph/LjlCp https://archive.ph/LjlCp
systemvoltage 3y ago
And let’s talk about deaths due to cold weather? I’m all for conserving the climate. The doom and gloom has been media’s staple for over 50 years. Now, it’s taking on the vibes of “We’ll all die if you don’t adopt authoritarianism. We want to monitor your carbon footprint.”
- ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
  Are cold weather deaths increasing or predicted to increase significantly? If so, then that does sound interesting and should be discussed.
  - pdonis 3y ago
    No, cold weather deaths will decrease significantly--by more than heat-related deaths will increase. About five times as many people die from cold each year as from heat. So the overall effect of warming will be to decrease the number of deaths due to extreme weather.
    - ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
      Are there any studies that support that view?
      - ipaddr 3y ago
        Yes. Have you heard of google? It's a search engine. Type your question and a list of related pages appear https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2023/07/19/excessive-summer-heat-can-kill-but-extreme-cold-causes-more-fatalities/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohe...
      - sltkr 3y ago
        Five seconds of googling will reveal: > https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/extreme-temperatures-kill-5-million-a-year-20-year-study-77875 https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/extreme-t... > > The study found that extreme heat and cold killed 5.08 million people on an average every year from 2000-2019. Of this, 4.6 million deaths on an average occurred annually due to extreme cold while 0.48 million deaths occurred due to extreme heat. The study is here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5... This shows that cold deaths outnumber heat deaths about 10:1, so global warming is a net positive when it comes to avoiding death. Additionally, heat deaths currently happen in countries that lack air conditioning because it was not historically needed. This is rapidly changing. Fortunately, cooling takes less energy than heating, which seems paradoxical at first, but it makes sense if you consider that cooling doesn't need to generate heat, but simply move it away (which also requires energy, but less than raising the temperature of a closed system by the equivalent temperature). Additionally, heat pumps can run on electricity from renewable energy sources, rather than heating which mostly uses fossil fuels (yes, heating can use electricity too, but that's currently an order of magnitude more expensive). All of these factors show that moderate global warming is good for mankind: it reduces overall energy use, it reduces fossil fuel use in particular (which is great because it's fossil fuels that are contributing to the greenhouse effect), and it reduces human death rates. You rarely hear about this, however, because the media is committed to pushing the false narrative that the world is on a path to global destruction.
RcouF1uZ4gsC 3y ago
Looks like they will need cheap, reliable electricity and air conditioning. We should focus on making sure they get it.
- ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
  Air conditioning can increase external temperatures in cities by approx 2 degrees C.
  - somehnguy 3y ago
    But decrease internal temperatures by 20+ degrees. Seems like a good trade off.
    - ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
      Depends very much on which side you are on. Unfortunately I expect that those people outside won't have much say in the matter.
- gnicholas 3y ago
  In other (hacker) news: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37455382 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37455382
irdc 3y ago
Don't worry. The nice thing about all this climate change is that total economic collapse will stop it in its tracks.
- kazinator 3y ago
  Infertility will fix the population boom too.
- AlexandrB 3y ago
  Unfortunately, probably not. It seems that it's like a tanker rather than a speedboat.
politelemon 3y ago
This seems to be off... According to the search, London is going to have no days above 31c by 2050, and we're currently going through a whole week of it.
- ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
  You're confusing dry bulb temperature with wet bulb temperature. It's certainly hot (I'm in Bristol), but humidity isn't 100% which means that the wet bulb temperature is lower (i.e. you can cool down by sweating and sitting in front of a fan).
DoreenMichele 3y ago
This new epidemic of extreme heat represents one of the gravest threats to humanity, scientists say, but it won’t affect the world in a uniform way. While certain parts of rich countries will see a surge in days, most of the danger will come in poor countries in already hot regions such as South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa that lack widespread air conditioning and other advantages like advanced health-care systems. On the upside, what you really need is cultural adaptation, like siestas in Mexico. And some of this places may be better positioned to pursue that than a lot of wealthier countries where some people can't solve anything if throwing money at it doesn't resolve it in short order.

47 points by ndsipa_pomu 3y ago

monsecchris 3y ago

Sounds like it belongs on the list: https://extinctionclock.org/#show https://extinctionclock.org/#show

chownie 3y ago
The latest "confirmed" Doomsday date on that page references a quote that doesn't contain a Doomsday date, so the site owner has wilfully misread the quote to create one.
ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
That list appears to be cherry picked to support a narrative. It doesn't include e.g. Exxon's predictions: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-climate-change-global-warming-research https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-clima...
1shooner 3y ago
As a climate change skeptic I want a curated list of failed or vague climate predictions So I can maintain cognitive resonance.
- more_corn 3y ago
  Do tell. What part of it are you skeptical about? That the greenhouse effect is real? That temperatures are rising? That extreme weather events will continue to increase in frequency and severity? That raising temperatures are melting the tundra and releasing more methane causes a feedback loop? That ice sheets are receding all over the world? These all seem to be well supported by facts. I’m curious about what the seed of your skepticism is, what planted it what previously cherished beliefs it supports.
  - dbsights 3y ago
    I thought this was quite a good interview, summing the rational, skeptic position. https://youtu.be/l90FpjPGLBE?si=v8fwGFWT-yLPpKgC https://youtu.be/l90FpjPGLBE?si=v8fwGFWT-yLPpKgC
- irdc 3y ago
  What would convince you?
Volundr 3y ago
This site is pretty bad. Every prediction is a "doomsday" prediction, and it simply marks them as wrong if the world hasn't ended by the specified date. Example, predicting the Hoover damn (Lake Mead) won't provide electricity if no action is taken. There have been significant efforts at water conservation. So now it's a "missed" prediction. Or predictions that X could happen in as little as Y years, establishing a lower bound. Y years passed, we'll call it missed. It would be interesting to see a meta-analysis of predictions and how accurate they turned out to be, but that isn't what this site is.

rcarr 3y ago

https://archive.ph/LjlCp https://archive.ph/LjlCp

systemvoltage 3y ago

And let’s talk about deaths due to cold weather? I’m all for conserving the climate. The doom and gloom has been media’s staple for over 50 years. Now, it’s taking on the vibes of “We’ll all die if you don’t adopt authoritarianism. We want to monitor your carbon footprint.”

ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
Are cold weather deaths increasing or predicted to increase significantly? If so, then that does sound interesting and should be discussed.
- pdonis 3y ago
  No, cold weather deaths will decrease significantly--by more than heat-related deaths will increase. About five times as many people die from cold each year as from heat. So the overall effect of warming will be to decrease the number of deaths due to extreme weather.
  - ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
    Are there any studies that support that view?
    - ipaddr 3y ago
      Yes. Have you heard of google? It's a search engine. Type your question and a list of related pages appear https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2023/07/19/excessive-summer-heat-can-kill-but-extreme-cold-causes-more-fatalities/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohe...
    - sltkr 3y ago
      Five seconds of googling will reveal: > https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/extreme-temperatures-kill-5-million-a-year-20-year-study-77875 https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/extreme-t... > > The study found that extreme heat and cold killed 5.08 million people on an average every year from 2000-2019. Of this, 4.6 million deaths on an average occurred annually due to extreme cold while 0.48 million deaths occurred due to extreme heat. The study is here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5... This shows that cold deaths outnumber heat deaths about 10:1, so global warming is a net positive when it comes to avoiding death. Additionally, heat deaths currently happen in countries that lack air conditioning because it was not historically needed. This is rapidly changing. Fortunately, cooling takes less energy than heating, which seems paradoxical at first, but it makes sense if you consider that cooling doesn't need to generate heat, but simply move it away (which also requires energy, but less than raising the temperature of a closed system by the equivalent temperature). Additionally, heat pumps can run on electricity from renewable energy sources, rather than heating which mostly uses fossil fuels (yes, heating can use electricity too, but that's currently an order of magnitude more expensive). All of these factors show that moderate global warming is good for mankind: it reduces overall energy use, it reduces fossil fuel use in particular (which is great because it's fossil fuels that are contributing to the greenhouse effect), and it reduces human death rates. You rarely hear about this, however, because the media is committed to pushing the false narrative that the world is on a path to global destruction.

RcouF1uZ4gsC 3y ago

Looks like they will need cheap, reliable electricity and air conditioning. We should focus on making sure they get it.

ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
Air conditioning can increase external temperatures in cities by approx 2 degrees C.
- somehnguy 3y ago
  But decrease internal temperatures by 20+ degrees. Seems like a good trade off.
  - ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
    Depends very much on which side you are on. Unfortunately I expect that those people outside won't have much say in the matter.
gnicholas 3y ago
In other (hacker) news: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37455382 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37455382

irdc 3y ago

Don't worry. The nice thing about all this climate change is that total economic collapse will stop it in its tracks.

kazinator 3y ago
Infertility will fix the population boom too.
AlexandrB 3y ago
Unfortunately, probably not. It seems that it's like a tanker rather than a speedboat.

politelemon 3y ago

This seems to be off... According to the search, London is going to have no days above 31c by 2050, and we're currently going through a whole week of it.

ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
You're confusing dry bulb temperature with wet bulb temperature. It's certainly hot (I'm in Bristol), but humidity isn't 100% which means that the wet bulb temperature is lower (i.e. you can cool down by sweating and sitting in front of a fan).

DoreenMichele 3y ago

This new epidemic of extreme heat represents one of the gravest threats to humanity, scientists say, but it won’t affect the world in a uniform way. While certain parts of rich countries will see a surge in days, most of the danger will come in poor countries in already hot regions such as South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa that lack widespread air conditioning and other advantages like advanced health-care systems. On the upside, what you really need is cultural adaptation, like siestas in Mexico. And some of this places may be better positioned to pursue that than a lot of wealthier countries where some people can't solve anything if throwing money at it doesn't resolve it in short order.