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I mean, the first combustion-engine cars had the same market reaction. A recollection of the late 19th century and early 20th, from 1930: https://www.saturdayev

I mean, the first combustion-engine cars had the same market reaction. A recollection of the late 19th century and early 20th, from 1930: https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2017/01/get-horse-americas-skepticism-toward-first-automobiles/ https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2017/01/get-horse-americ... The whole story has salient parallels — parts suppliers were either reticent or inexperienced, fuel was cheap but not widely available, motors were slow, investors put money in before the market was there, founders lamenting the state of the modern laborer, early adopters stuck needing parts for vehicles orphaned by suddenly defunct manufacturers, and the guy getting all the money and attention is a wealthy idiot making self-crashing death traps who relies on free advice from his witless fans to avoid failure and profit. There's even a cameo from early EV manufacturer Electric Vehicle Company in 1899. Tangentially, this is evocative: > In the uncertainty of what the public would want, a great many strange contraptions were put together. Joseph Barsaleaux, a blacksmith of Sandy Hill, New York, built a motor horse. In his device, the horse moved on a single wheel about two feet in diameter, with the wheel attached to the shafts just as was a live horse. Reins attached to the mouth of the horse served as a steering gear, because the machinery was inside the horse and had to be regulated some way. The contraption weighed about 550 pounds, had a cruising speed of six miles an hour, and attracted some serious attention. EV makers should probably stop trying to make mechanical horses — EV motors and cars that aren't competitive with ICE equivalents — and find a form factor that better suits both the market and the current state of the technology. Class 2 ebikes and small carts feel closer to that answer on short runs, but the long-haul equivalents are still missing. Hell, Winton in this story is a bicycle manufacturer who makes his first horseless carriage from bicycles.

somerandomqaguy 3y ago
That doesn't disagree with what he's saying though; it's still in a transition phase. Range loss issues from cold weather and/or towing are still a concern, inability to charge at home is a concern, large upfront costs are still a concern, the weirdness of fast charging stations is still a concern. They're solvable issues and in time will be, but they're issues lot of people don't want to deal with while things are still in flux and don't see enough value in paying the cost of being an early adopter.
jcgrillo 3y ago
I don't disagree, but there's one major difference at play here. Those early horseless carriages--and maybe even the first ~9 decades of automobiles--were objectively simple, maintainable, rebuildable machines. Many examples from that early era are still running. None of them had proprietary computer systems, delicate plastic parts, etc. I think it's substantially less likely that there will be any vehicles from the first couple decades of this century running 100 years from now. And it's an important part of sustainability, cost of ownership, etc. It's hard to see the point in owning a vehicle from this century unless manufacturers start building them to be good transportation tools instead of what they appear to have become--a means to sell a financial instrument (a car loan), an ads serving platform, and a data collection mechanism. For me personally that is really the biggest barrier to owning an EV.

somerandomqaguy 3y ago

That doesn't disagree with what he's saying though; it's still in a transition phase. Range loss issues from cold weather and/or towing are still a concern, inability to charge at home is a concern, large upfront costs are still a concern, the weirdness of fast charging stations is still a concern. They're solvable issues and in time will be, but they're issues lot of people don't want to deal with while things are still in flux and don't see enough value in paying the cost of being an early adopter.

jcgrillo 3y ago

I don't disagree, but there's one major difference at play here. Those early horseless carriages--and maybe even the first ~9 decades of automobiles--were objectively simple, maintainable, rebuildable machines. Many examples from that early era are still running. None of them had proprietary computer systems, delicate plastic parts, etc. I think it's substantially less likely that there will be any vehicles from the first couple decades of this century running 100 years from now. And it's an important part of sustainability, cost of ownership, etc. It's hard to see the point in owning a vehicle from this century unless manufacturers start building them to be good transportation tools instead of what they appear to have become--a means to sell a financial instrument (a car loan), an ads serving platform, and a data collection mechanism. For me personally that is really the biggest barrier to owning an EV.