4 ms·

this was previously posted but not really discussed we broke 90 GW for the first time, compared to 85ish last year. much of that has come from industry growth.

this was previously posted but not really discussed we broke 90 GW for the first time, compared to 85ish last year. much of that has come from industry growth. in an ideal world there's a straightforward solution: ban industrialized crypto mining, and require miners, heavy manufacturers, and refiners using a certain amount of power to generate a majority of their base load in-house _and pay their full share of transmission infrastructure costs_ (transmission issues being a factor in the emergency alert that went out this past weds) the article says wind and solar are "propping up" the grid but what i've observed is the sun stops shining and the wind stops blowing at exactly the worst times. hopefully companche peak doesn't have a unit shut down at the same time, as happened in 21 ercot have been doing a fine job with the hand the PUC dealt them, but my goodness is it scary to watch how often and drastically the frequency swings out of the clean range

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Texas has 100GW of solar, 50GW of batteries, and 20GW of wind in its interconnect queue. ERCOT is also working on standing up a capacity market after embarrassment after embarrassment, driven by the PUC. This should be solved within the next 1-3 years. When the grid is strained due to AC loads, solar is pumping out full capacity (with a de minimis performance decrease at utility scale if the temp is exceptionally high). Lots of questions about how much of their fossil gas infra will be stranded as batteries rapidly decline in cost (battery firmed renewables directly compete with fossil gas).
- replygirl 3y ago
  would industrial users paying more for transmission not benefit the process you're talking about? i get the impression you're politicizing my comment on wind and solar--i'm just relaying what i've lived through here, with what we already have connected
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Transmission is a small component of total energy charges. Renewables are emphasized in my comment as they drive down the cost of power (solar is the cheapest form of power currently, batteries firm solar so as it ensure it can be called upon by ERCOT; “dispatchable” is the term of art). Not political. I don’t live in Texas, but have friends and family that do, so I’ve been there to install renewables and batteries for them and am very familiar with the situation (and also monitor grid stability remotely where their equipment touches the utility); Victoria Electric Cooperative is particularly on my shit list for making public statements that renewables are the cause of ERCOT instability (for political purposes in direct contradiction of the data).
    - replygirl 3y ago
      at many points this summer, shortfalls in generation from renewables relative to projections have been greater than the projected overall shortfall in the system. so at the moment yes, these sources are often causing instability where other sources wouldn't. it'll be nice when we have more battery
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        Sometimes renewables aren't generating when grid demand is high, but more often than not, they are, because when its hot out, the sun is shining. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/28/texas-solar-power-grid-heat-wave/ https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/28/texas-solar-power-gr...
landmass 3y ago
If there hasn't been a study of the negative effect of inviting crypto miners to use cheap energy I'm not surprised. It would probably show a huge negative effect and Texas isn't interested in disagreements with its power policy. They have carefully shielded ERCOT from having to show transparency. Industry and crypto mining are paid to reduce power usage during ERCOT-declared emergencies but ordinary user are not.
- kccqzy 3y ago
  I was skeptical but what you said is real: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/09/06/texas-paid-bitcoin-miner-riot-31point7-million-to-shut-down-in-august.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/09/06/texas-paid-bitcoin-miner... This is utterly disgusting.
- FractalHQ 3y ago
  I wonder if AI is set to outpace crypto with all the gpu compute going into the AI race.
eutectic 3y ago
Presumably this means that power is underpriced (potentially for political reasons). Increase prices and any issues should fix themselves.
- replygirl 3y ago
  on the contrary, texas has some of the highest bulk rates in the world, only for short bursts energy pricing is ostensibly all market-based here, with only spot and day-ahead markets whereas most (all?) other ISOs have year-ahead capacity auctions. the upshot for producers is that peak rates are capped much higher, around $10k here vs around $2k elsewhere. this worked for a while but renewables can often sell at near zero thanks to tax credits, so there's more volatility and destructive competition now. dispatchable producers stay competitive with a poor state of repair and a more selective approach to generation that favors peak hours. this is why in the summer we are constantly getting conservation notices but rarely have wide blackouts, as spikes to $1500+ are ordinary and we've hit $4000+ more than once this year
  - hollerith 3y ago
    It almost sounds like you are describing a poker game :)

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Texas has 100GW of solar, 50GW of batteries, and 20GW of wind in its interconnect queue. ERCOT is also working on standing up a capacity market after embarrassment after embarrassment, driven by the PUC. This should be solved within the next 1-3 years. When the grid is strained due to AC loads, solar is pumping out full capacity (with a de minimis performance decrease at utility scale if the temp is exceptionally high). Lots of questions about how much of their fossil gas infra will be stranded as batteries rapidly decline in cost (battery firmed renewables directly compete with fossil gas).

replygirl 3y ago
would industrial users paying more for transmission not benefit the process you're talking about? i get the impression you're politicizing my comment on wind and solar--i'm just relaying what i've lived through here, with what we already have connected
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Transmission is a small component of total energy charges. Renewables are emphasized in my comment as they drive down the cost of power (solar is the cheapest form of power currently, batteries firm solar so as it ensure it can be called upon by ERCOT; “dispatchable” is the term of art). Not political. I don’t live in Texas, but have friends and family that do, so I’ve been there to install renewables and batteries for them and am very familiar with the situation (and also monitor grid stability remotely where their equipment touches the utility); Victoria Electric Cooperative is particularly on my shit list for making public statements that renewables are the cause of ERCOT instability (for political purposes in direct contradiction of the data).
  - replygirl 3y ago
    at many points this summer, shortfalls in generation from renewables relative to projections have been greater than the projected overall shortfall in the system. so at the moment yes, these sources are often causing instability where other sources wouldn't. it'll be nice when we have more battery
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      Sometimes renewables aren't generating when grid demand is high, but more often than not, they are, because when its hot out, the sun is shining. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/28/texas-solar-power-grid-heat-wave/ https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/28/texas-solar-power-gr...

landmass 3y ago

If there hasn't been a study of the negative effect of inviting crypto miners to use cheap energy I'm not surprised. It would probably show a huge negative effect and Texas isn't interested in disagreements with its power policy. They have carefully shielded ERCOT from having to show transparency. Industry and crypto mining are paid to reduce power usage during ERCOT-declared emergencies but ordinary user are not.

kccqzy 3y ago
I was skeptical but what you said is real: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/09/06/texas-paid-bitcoin-miner-riot-31point7-million-to-shut-down-in-august.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/09/06/texas-paid-bitcoin-miner... This is utterly disgusting.
FractalHQ 3y ago
I wonder if AI is set to outpace crypto with all the gpu compute going into the AI race.

eutectic 3y ago

Presumably this means that power is underpriced (potentially for political reasons). Increase prices and any issues should fix themselves.

replygirl 3y ago
on the contrary, texas has some of the highest bulk rates in the world, only for short bursts energy pricing is ostensibly all market-based here, with only spot and day-ahead markets whereas most (all?) other ISOs have year-ahead capacity auctions. the upshot for producers is that peak rates are capped much higher, around $10k here vs around $2k elsewhere. this worked for a while but renewables can often sell at near zero thanks to tax credits, so there's more volatility and destructive competition now. dispatchable producers stay competitive with a poor state of repair and a more selective approach to generation that favors peak hours. this is why in the summer we are constantly getting conservation notices but rarely have wide blackouts, as spikes to $1500+ are ordinary and we've hit $4000+ more than once this year
- hollerith 3y ago
  It almost sounds like you are describing a poker game :)