4 ms·

No more air travel is very radical!

replygirl 3y ago
this is a big one. there is a surgery i'll need within 10 years that i can't access in north america. i could definitely give up flight for play, probably for work, not for health
- dopidopHN 3y ago
  What if it was replaced by boat travel?
- jfengel 3y ago
  You could take a boat. It takes longer but you said it's not an emergency.
  - Gareth321 3y ago
    Ships are worse than planes. https://theicct.org/marine-cruising-flying-may22/ https://theicct.org/marine-cruising-flying-may22/
    - replygirl 3y ago
      in this theoretical world without commodity air travel, we'd have ocean liners fit for purpose. right now the only one i know of is effectively a cruise ship payload stuffed into an ocean liner hull. based on the numbers for cargo favoring sea over air, it seems reasonable that liners _could_ be more efficient than flight
  - replygirl 3y ago
    yeah i'd love if ocean liners were a thing again. afaik there's only one, and it's a ritzy and touristy affair
  - concordDance 3y ago
    The huge amount of time saved with plane vs boat makes the former the superior option. There's no way a ton of CO2 is worth the comparative QALY loss you get from five days in a boat compared to the other things you could be doing with that time (if you're on a properly efficient liner rather than a super inefficient modern luxury cruise liner). Even the extreme upper end of CO2 externalities don't go above $1000/ton with most reasonable estimates below $100/ton.
dopidopHN 3y ago
I took my first plane at 28 or so. Before it was just too expensive. I survived, and traveled to many, many countries without it. ( car, buses ) Now, I live between two continents. Take plane at least once a year or every other one. I would still be in favor of plane restriction. It will happen anyway: but by prices purely and the most affluent of us will be the less impacted.
- RandomLensman 3y ago
  There is no need for it to happen. This weird idea that getting poorer will ensure the long-term survival of humans is in error.
  - dopidopHN 3y ago
    Don’t you think oil will keep getting more expensive? That what I had in mind. It seems more and more costly to extract it.
    - RandomLensman 3y ago
      Oil will eventually be very cheap because demand will be a lot less than it is now.
      - dopidopHN 3y ago
        I never heard that projection before. Because demands will plumet? Then It might just be not cost effective at all to go dig deeper or use more complex process to get it. How does that works with current recent trends? Globally we consumed more oil in 2023 than 2022 for instance. If demand plumet somehow … can we still support a extraction industry ? Recently ( pre 2019 ) shale gaz was worth it because of high prices… then it switched again to lower price and extracting it made little sense ( till next time )
        RandomLensman 3y ago
        Once oil is used only marginally for fuel and heating, the demand will be a lot less (minus 80% or thereabouts) and going after difficult to extract sources might indeed not be economical but also not needed to satisfy demand (unless this happens very very late). During the transition there could be cost spikes at demand levels that are awkward to fill without expensive resources, though.

this is a big one. there is a surgery i'll need within 10 years that i can't access in north america. i could definitely give up flight for play, probably for work, not for health

dopidopHN 3y ago
What if it was replaced by boat travel?
jfengel 3y ago
You could take a boat. It takes longer but you said it's not an emergency.
- Gareth321 3y ago
  Ships are worse than planes. https://theicct.org/marine-cruising-flying-may22/ https://theicct.org/marine-cruising-flying-may22/
  - replygirl 3y ago
    in this theoretical world without commodity air travel, we'd have ocean liners fit for purpose. right now the only one i know of is effectively a cruise ship payload stuffed into an ocean liner hull. based on the numbers for cargo favoring sea over air, it seems reasonable that liners _could_ be more efficient than flight
- replygirl 3y ago
  yeah i'd love if ocean liners were a thing again. afaik there's only one, and it's a ritzy and touristy affair
- concordDance 3y ago
  The huge amount of time saved with plane vs boat makes the former the superior option. There's no way a ton of CO2 is worth the comparative QALY loss you get from five days in a boat compared to the other things you could be doing with that time (if you're on a properly efficient liner rather than a super inefficient modern luxury cruise liner). Even the extreme upper end of CO2 externalities don't go above $1000/ton with most reasonable estimates below $100/ton.

dopidopHN 3y ago

I took my first plane at 28 or so. Before it was just too expensive. I survived, and traveled to many, many countries without it. ( car, buses ) Now, I live between two continents. Take plane at least once a year or every other one. I would still be in favor of plane restriction. It will happen anyway: but by prices purely and the most affluent of us will be the less impacted.

RandomLensman 3y ago
There is no need for it to happen. This weird idea that getting poorer will ensure the long-term survival of humans is in error.
- dopidopHN 3y ago
  Don’t you think oil will keep getting more expensive? That what I had in mind. It seems more and more costly to extract it.
  - RandomLensman 3y ago
    Oil will eventually be very cheap because demand will be a lot less than it is now.
    - dopidopHN 3y ago
      I never heard that projection before. Because demands will plumet? Then It might just be not cost effective at all to go dig deeper or use more complex process to get it. How does that works with current recent trends? Globally we consumed more oil in 2023 than 2022 for instance. If demand plumet somehow … can we still support a extraction industry ? Recently ( pre 2019 ) shale gaz was worth it because of high prices… then it switched again to lower price and extracting it made little sense ( till next time )
      - RandomLensman 3y ago
        Once oil is used only marginally for fuel and heating, the demand will be a lot less (minus 80% or thereabouts) and going after difficult to extract sources might indeed not be economical but also not needed to satisfy demand (unless this happens very very late). During the transition there could be cost spikes at demand levels that are awkward to fill without expensive resources, though.