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Confirmation bias is a known human weakness. Based on what little I've seen, he does not appear to be guilty of it. If other people are overemphasizing his "cor

Confirmation bias is a known human weakness. Based on what little I've seen, he does not appear to be guilty of it. If other people are overemphasizing his "correct" predictions and ignoring his incorrect ones, this should not be conflated with his position. He seems fairly reasonable at first glance.

gruez 3y ago
>Confirmation bias is a known human weakness. Based on what little I've seen, he does not appear to be guilty of it. I scrolled through his timeline and found plenty of predictions that failed to materialize https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446472 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446472
- DoreenMichele 3y ago
  I've only just learned of his existence. I have no idea why he would publish something like that. Perhaps it's part of his process for sorting out what works. I'm disinclined to draw any conclusion one way or another at this point in time about his work. I lack sufficient information and I'm confident quickly scanning his Twitter feed won't adequately fill in the gaps in my knowledge.
  - gruez 3y ago
    >Perhaps it's part of his process for sorting out what works. He's been doing this for years and has been going on the media circuit touting his predictions. He even works at (founded?) an organization that claims to predict earthquakes. This is obviously not a case of some scientist "sorting out what works".
    - DoreenMichele 3y ago
      Coolios. I've just learned of his existence. I reserve the right to draw my own conclusions in my own time and do not feel compelled to cave to social pressure to spout the "party line". Thank you.
      - gruez 3y ago
        >I reserve the right to draw my own conclusions in my own time and do not feel compelled to cave to social pressure to spout the "party line". What a bizarre statement to make after a seemingly reasonable series of exchanges. If you're out of arguments but don't want to change your mind, just admit so. Invoking some sort of persecution complex to justify it is just baffling. Nobody is demanding that you immediately change your mind or publicly recant your beliefs.
        DoreenMichele 3y ago
        What part of "I haven't made up my mind, I've only just learned he exists" are you failing to grasp?
        gruez 3y ago
        > What part of "I haven't made up my mind, I've only just learned he exists" are you failing to grasp? I'm not sure why you think I'm "failing to grasp" that part. My previous comment literally says >If you're out of arguments but don't want to change your mind, just admit so. The part that was "bizzare" to me was >Invoking some sort of persecution complex to justify it is just baffling. Nobody is demanding that you immediately change your mind or publicly recant your beliefs.
        DoreenMichele 3y ago
        I said several replies to you ago and have reiterated that position: I'm disinclined to draw any conclusion one way or another at this point in time about his work. I lack sufficient information and I'm confident quickly scanning his Twitter feed won't adequately fill in the gaps in my knowledge. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446779 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446779 Changing one's mind requires you to first have a position. You keep arguing for me to see it your way, as if I believe the opposite to be true. I don't.

gruez 3y ago

>Confirmation bias is a known human weakness. Based on what little I've seen, he does not appear to be guilty of it. I scrolled through his timeline and found plenty of predictions that failed to materialize https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446472 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446472

DoreenMichele 3y ago
I've only just learned of his existence. I have no idea why he would publish something like that. Perhaps it's part of his process for sorting out what works. I'm disinclined to draw any conclusion one way or another at this point in time about his work. I lack sufficient information and I'm confident quickly scanning his Twitter feed won't adequately fill in the gaps in my knowledge.
- gruez 3y ago
  >Perhaps it's part of his process for sorting out what works. He's been doing this for years and has been going on the media circuit touting his predictions. He even works at (founded?) an organization that claims to predict earthquakes. This is obviously not a case of some scientist "sorting out what works".
  - DoreenMichele 3y ago
    Coolios. I've just learned of his existence. I reserve the right to draw my own conclusions in my own time and do not feel compelled to cave to social pressure to spout the "party line". Thank you.
    - gruez 3y ago
      >I reserve the right to draw my own conclusions in my own time and do not feel compelled to cave to social pressure to spout the "party line". What a bizarre statement to make after a seemingly reasonable series of exchanges. If you're out of arguments but don't want to change your mind, just admit so. Invoking some sort of persecution complex to justify it is just baffling. Nobody is demanding that you immediately change your mind or publicly recant your beliefs.
      - DoreenMichele 3y ago
        What part of "I haven't made up my mind, I've only just learned he exists" are you failing to grasp?
        gruez 3y ago
        > What part of "I haven't made up my mind, I've only just learned he exists" are you failing to grasp? I'm not sure why you think I'm "failing to grasp" that part. My previous comment literally says >If you're out of arguments but don't want to change your mind, just admit so. The part that was "bizzare" to me was >Invoking some sort of persecution complex to justify it is just baffling. Nobody is demanding that you immediately change your mind or publicly recant your beliefs.
        DoreenMichele 3y ago
        I said several replies to you ago and have reiterated that position: I'm disinclined to draw any conclusion one way or another at this point in time about his work. I lack sufficient information and I'm confident quickly scanning his Twitter feed won't adequately fill in the gaps in my knowledge. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446779 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37446779 Changing one's mind requires you to first have a position. You keep arguing for me to see it your way, as if I believe the opposite to be true. I don't.