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The problem is the bull whip effect. Yes there’s loads of demand now, but are we really saying that the AI boom is a permanent uptick in demand for silicon, or
by SilverBirch 3y ago
The problem is the bull whip effect. Yes there’s loads of demand now, but are we really saying that the AI boom is a permanent uptick in demand for silicon, or is it more likely that the hype dies down? By the time capacity comes online demand may well gave peaked and dropped. Suddenly these massive sunk cost fabs will be taking any business they can to amortise the costs.
- ethbr1 3y agoIt seems more likely that efficiency gains decrease aggregate compute requirements than people stop using AI tools altogether. At minimum, LLMs work as a better human-software interface medium, which means they're going to be infused in almost everything non-technical consumer-facing. Even absent any other breakthroughs, that seems like a huge consumer of AI hardware capacity.