There's probably a mathematically rigorous version of the proverb along the lines of "low-confidence observations from a limited number of data points are not a

There's probably a mathematically rigorous version of the proverb along the lines of "low-confidence observations from a limited number of data points are not always sufficient to update other actors with priors different from yours sufficiently far towards your position for the optimal status-seeking strategy to be for you to give an expression of high confidence", but it wouldn't roll off the tongue quite so well.