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I think it’s the opposite. Models will become more commoditized and closed/invisible as the basis of other service offerings. Apple isn’t going to start offerin

I think it’s the opposite. Models will become more commoditized and closed/invisible as the basis of other service offerings. Apple isn’t going to start offering general API access to the model they’re training, but will bake it into a bunch of stuff and maybe give platform developers limited access. Meta will probably continue to drive the commoditization train because they have a killer ML/AI team, but the same thing will likely happen there once it’s the basis for a service that generates money.

foobiekr 3y ago
This. We haven’t even entered the get-serious monetization era. Now that the infinite free money pump has been turned down a bunch, we’re going to see what reality looks like.
- 6510 3y ago
  Okay ill tell you. You need to start a startup that sets up a good number of cameras at manual labor jobs. Most of the footage will be completely useless but every day you hit a once in a day event, every week you get a once in a week event, every month, every year, every decade etc! Then the guy working there for 40 years wacks pipe 224 with a hammer 50 cm from the outlet and production resumes. The footage can be aggressively pruned to fit on the disk. When the robot is delivered in 2033 it can easily figure out, from the footage, all these weird and rare edge cases. The difference will be like that between a competent but new employee and someone with 10 years of experience. I can see the Tesla bots disassembling the production line already. Or do you think it wont happen?
  - Aerbil313 3y ago
    Transformers can and do forget.
  - checkyoursudo 3y ago
    Assuming that this would work, which I am fine with granting for purposes of discussion, how does this method ever let you build anything new? Or make use of advances in production methods? Or completely reconfigure a production line because of some regulatory requirement?
cs702 3y ago
Actually, we're saying the same thing: Models are becoming more commoditized, so profits will accrue, not to those companies who say they have the "best" models, but to the companies that have other kinds of advantages. When it comes to LLMs, no one has a technological advantage.

foobiekr 3y ago

This. We haven’t even entered the get-serious monetization era. Now that the infinite free money pump has been turned down a bunch, we’re going to see what reality looks like.

6510 3y ago
Okay ill tell you. You need to start a startup that sets up a good number of cameras at manual labor jobs. Most of the footage will be completely useless but every day you hit a once in a day event, every week you get a once in a week event, every month, every year, every decade etc! Then the guy working there for 40 years wacks pipe 224 with a hammer 50 cm from the outlet and production resumes. The footage can be aggressively pruned to fit on the disk. When the robot is delivered in 2033 it can easily figure out, from the footage, all these weird and rare edge cases. The difference will be like that between a competent but new employee and someone with 10 years of experience. I can see the Tesla bots disassembling the production line already. Or do you think it wont happen?
- Aerbil313 3y ago
  Transformers can and do forget.
- checkyoursudo 3y ago
  Assuming that this would work, which I am fine with granting for purposes of discussion, how does this method ever let you build anything new? Or make use of advances in production methods? Or completely reconfigure a production line because of some regulatory requirement?

cs702 3y ago

Actually, we're saying the same thing: Models are becoming more commoditized, so profits will accrue, not to those companies who say they have the "best" models, but to the companies that have other kinds of advantages. When it comes to LLMs, no one has a technological advantage.