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Actually Korean industry experts expect that SMIC will probably be able to create 3nm and 5nm without access to EUV[1] machines. This guy claims that 7nm is the

Actually Korean industry experts expect that SMIC will probably be able to create 3nm and 5nm without access to EUV[1] machines. This guy claims that 7nm is the last feasible node with DUV only[2], but what does China care about the infeasibility of the node? They have over a billion people produce an order of magnitude more engineers per year than we do and print their own money. DUV is blocked through sanctions as well. Please don't make misleading claims. The ban also goes way beyond just lithography and includes a lot of other tooling. On top of that the sanctions seem to have been extended to not only block access to the machines but also to after purchase servicing, which actually led China to threaten ASML to buy back the machines should that be the case. And yes TSMC was indeed producing 7nm using DUV before using EUV, but that doesn't mean that our wonderfully talented politicians and think tanks understand any of that given that just last year these geniuses were gloating that the export controls would throw back Chinas access to advanced chips decades. [1] https://m.sedaily.com/NewsViewAmp/29UKVB5O3N https://m.sedaily.com/NewsViewAmp/29UKVB5O3N [2] https://twitter.com/Tech_Reve/status/1699664604568355135 https://twitter.com/Tech_Reve/status/1699664604568355135

trevyn 3y ago
That first article has an interesting assertion about sub-7nm, but is not a great source and doesn’t appear to offer any other details or references. I would be very surprised if they are able to do anything without EUV.
MangoCoffee 3y ago
>They have over a billion people produce an order of magnitude more engineers per year than we do and print their own money The semis industry is truly a "globalism" industry ASML is a system integrator. It uses laser from cymer, glass from zeiss...etc. For fab like TSMC to make chip require TSMC to develop a node process, chemicals from Japan (the trade spat between South Korea and Japan result in Samsung executes going to Japan) machine from various vendors like ASML, applied material..etc. i don't think one country can do it all by itself. Not US, Japan, Dutch or China...etc. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-South-Korea-rift/Samsung-chief-visits-Japan-to-seek-export-curb-workarounds https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-South-Korea-rift/Sam... edit: >a billion people produce an order of magnitude more engineers per year Is this quantity over quality? i was educated in Taiwan up to high school before i come to States. Let me tell you, the way they educated student is call "stuffing the duck". They spoon-feed you info until you're "full" (remember the answers). That kind of education does not produce Steve Jobs and the cram school is everywhere in Asia.
- rjzzleep 3y ago
  > i don't think one country can do it all by itself. Not US, Japan, Dutch or China. That is indeed what most people and I used to think, so if this is what's going to happen it's all the more impressive. German economy minister just said that German companies need to choose between the US and China. Germany's chemical industry leader BASF warned last year that the EU sanctions will decimate its industry[1](they recently announced a 76% profit loss[2]) and announced a cutback on its EU presence. TSMC founder Morris Chang said last year that Globalization is "almost dead" [3] It doesn't matter if it's globalized or not, if China is locked out of it they will have to produce in on their own. They already have preferred access to the worlds biggest commodity and energy exporter now. ASML by the way doesn't just create Lithography machines that people used. They are customized with the IP from Samsung for Samsung lithography machines, just like they're customized with TSMC IP for TSMC lithography machines. > the trade spat between South Korea and Japan result in Samsung executes going to Japan Can you elaborate on this? Would love to know more about that. Kishida's government actually suggested even stricter restrictions on exports than the Biden administration did. The Chinese seem pissed and are actually starting to get litigative against Japanese companies. Let's not forget that on a company by company bases Huawei is actually the biggest single company 5G patent holder followed by Samsung, LG, Nokia and ZTE[1]. The same applies to RISC-V. > Is this quantity over quality? i was educated in Taiwan from up to high school before i come to States. Let me tell you, back then the way they educated student is call "stuffing the duck". They basically spoon-feed you info until you're "full" (remember the answers). That kind of education does not produce Steve Jobs and the cram school is everywhere in Asia. Maybe. But I was visiting the communication network society in Germany every year before Covid and the professors there certainly didn't think so. But look at the board of directors of the biggest engineering schools in China. Look at board of NTHU in Hsinchu. I went to Semicon today and will go again tomorrow and I walk through those Halls with a big imposter syndrome, being thoroughly impressed by Taiwanese companies, but I still can't help but feel like Taiwan has lost its way. Too occupied with geopolitical games at a policy level. Look at the papers being churned out from the US top universities. 80% of the authors are of indian, chinese, possibly Taiwanese decent, 10% from other places and some from 3rd/4th gen US Americans. With the documented surveillance of Chinese scientists many Chinese scientists have decided to return to their birthplace[]. Back in the day the founder of SMIC studied in Taiwan. Nowadays Taiwan leaks talent to China because they have had stagnating wages for 30 years. By the way if you speak to people on the street you will see that many people have not forgotten what the USA did to Japans semiconductor industry in 1986.[6] [1] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-chef-warnt-vor-gas-embargo-schaeden-fuer-deutsche-volkswirtschaft-17925528.html https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-chef... [2] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-gewinneinbruch-china-quartalszahlen-100.html https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-gewinn... [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most-read-in-2022/TSMC-founder-Morris-Chang-says-globalization-almost-dead https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most-read-in-2022/TSMC-fou... [4] https://www.iplytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Who-Leads-the-5G-Patent-Race_2019.pdf https://www.iplytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Who-Lead... [5] https://www.aclu.org/news/national-security/a-chinese-american-scientist-and-his-family-are-battling-the-fbis-profiling-in-court https://www.aclu.org/news/national-security/a-chinese-americ... [6] https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/62917/japan-semiconductor https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/62917/japan-semiconductor?
deleted 3y ago
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minorannoyance2 3y ago
>Actually Korean industry experts expect that SMIC will probably be able to create 3nm and 5nm without access to EUV[1] machines. This guy claims that 7nm is the last feasible node with DUV only[2], but what does China care about the infeasibility of the node? Very well said actually, I didn't want to speculate further, but I certainly do think that it's probable SMIC will squeeze more than 7nm out of DUV if they can't acquire EUV, in that case it's no longer a matter of reasonable cost/yields. >DUV is blocked through sanctions as well. Please don't make misleading claims. Apologies for the poor wording, but this was neither supposed to be misleading nor is, to the best of my knowledge, misleading in the sense you imply. I am fairly certain I read about DUV deliveries sometime in 2020-2021 and according to this[1] the ban on DUV only effectively starts this year. My point was that that they weren't blocked from DUV, as in in the past, and that allowed SMIC and China in general a lot easier access to DUV. It's only with EUV that we could talk about actually developing a native capability alone. >And yes TSMC was indeed producing 7nm using DUV before using EUV, but that doesn't mean that our wonderfully talented politicians and think tanks understand any of that given that just last year these geniuses were gloating that the export controls would throw back Chinas access to advanced chips decades. Not the way I would phrase it, but I would be hard pressed to disagree. [1] https://technode.com/2023/09/04/asmls-export-of-chip-making-machines-to-china-valid-until-year-end/ https://technode.com/2023/09/04/asmls-export-of-chip-making-...
- rbanffy 3y ago
  > in that case it's no longer a matter of reasonable cost/yields. This is an interesting point. Considering the extremely difficult engineering problem of the ASML machines, China might opt for an entirely different technology that, although more expensive and impractical for those with access to ASML EUV machines, could eventually allow them a better evolutionary path towards smaller geometries. Blocking access to tech can have unintended effects.

trevyn 3y ago

That first article has an interesting assertion about sub-7nm, but is not a great source and doesn’t appear to offer any other details or references. I would be very surprised if they are able to do anything without EUV.

MangoCoffee 3y ago

>They have over a billion people produce an order of magnitude more engineers per year than we do and print their own money The semis industry is truly a "globalism" industry ASML is a system integrator. It uses laser from cymer, glass from zeiss...etc. For fab like TSMC to make chip require TSMC to develop a node process, chemicals from Japan (the trade spat between South Korea and Japan result in Samsung executes going to Japan) machine from various vendors like ASML, applied material..etc. i don't think one country can do it all by itself. Not US, Japan, Dutch or China...etc. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-South-Korea-rift/Samsung-chief-visits-Japan-to-seek-export-curb-workarounds https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-South-Korea-rift/Sam... edit: >a billion people produce an order of magnitude more engineers per year Is this quantity over quality? i was educated in Taiwan up to high school before i come to States. Let me tell you, the way they educated student is call "stuffing the duck". They spoon-feed you info until you're "full" (remember the answers). That kind of education does not produce Steve Jobs and the cram school is everywhere in Asia.

rjzzleep 3y ago
> i don't think one country can do it all by itself. Not US, Japan, Dutch or China. That is indeed what most people and I used to think, so if this is what's going to happen it's all the more impressive. German economy minister just said that German companies need to choose between the US and China. Germany's chemical industry leader BASF warned last year that the EU sanctions will decimate its industry[1](they recently announced a 76% profit loss[2]) and announced a cutback on its EU presence. TSMC founder Morris Chang said last year that Globalization is "almost dead" [3] It doesn't matter if it's globalized or not, if China is locked out of it they will have to produce in on their own. They already have preferred access to the worlds biggest commodity and energy exporter now. ASML by the way doesn't just create Lithography machines that people used. They are customized with the IP from Samsung for Samsung lithography machines, just like they're customized with TSMC IP for TSMC lithography machines. > the trade spat between South Korea and Japan result in Samsung executes going to Japan Can you elaborate on this? Would love to know more about that. Kishida's government actually suggested even stricter restrictions on exports than the Biden administration did. The Chinese seem pissed and are actually starting to get litigative against Japanese companies. Let's not forget that on a company by company bases Huawei is actually the biggest single company 5G patent holder followed by Samsung, LG, Nokia and ZTE[1]. The same applies to RISC-V. > Is this quantity over quality? i was educated in Taiwan from up to high school before i come to States. Let me tell you, back then the way they educated student is call "stuffing the duck". They basically spoon-feed you info until you're "full" (remember the answers). That kind of education does not produce Steve Jobs and the cram school is everywhere in Asia. Maybe. But I was visiting the communication network society in Germany every year before Covid and the professors there certainly didn't think so. But look at the board of directors of the biggest engineering schools in China. Look at board of NTHU in Hsinchu. I went to Semicon today and will go again tomorrow and I walk through those Halls with a big imposter syndrome, being thoroughly impressed by Taiwanese companies, but I still can't help but feel like Taiwan has lost its way. Too occupied with geopolitical games at a policy level. Look at the papers being churned out from the US top universities. 80% of the authors are of indian, chinese, possibly Taiwanese decent, 10% from other places and some from 3rd/4th gen US Americans. With the documented surveillance of Chinese scientists many Chinese scientists have decided to return to their birthplace[]. Back in the day the founder of SMIC studied in Taiwan. Nowadays Taiwan leaks talent to China because they have had stagnating wages for 30 years. By the way if you speak to people on the street you will see that many people have not forgotten what the USA did to Japans semiconductor industry in 1986.[6] [1] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-chef-warnt-vor-gas-embargo-schaeden-fuer-deutsche-volkswirtschaft-17925528.html https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-chef... [2] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-gewinneinbruch-china-quartalszahlen-100.html https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-gewinn... [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most-read-in-2022/TSMC-founder-Morris-Chang-says-globalization-almost-dead https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most-read-in-2022/TSMC-fou... [4] https://www.iplytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Who-Leads-the-5G-Patent-Race_2019.pdf https://www.iplytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Who-Lead... [5] https://www.aclu.org/news/national-security/a-chinese-american-scientist-and-his-family-are-battling-the-fbis-profiling-in-court https://www.aclu.org/news/national-security/a-chinese-americ... [6] https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/62917/japan-semiconductor https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/62917/japan-semiconductor?

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

minorannoyance2 3y ago

>Actually Korean industry experts expect that SMIC will probably be able to create 3nm and 5nm without access to EUV[1] machines. This guy claims that 7nm is the last feasible node with DUV only[2], but what does China care about the infeasibility of the node? Very well said actually, I didn't want to speculate further, but I certainly do think that it's probable SMIC will squeeze more than 7nm out of DUV if they can't acquire EUV, in that case it's no longer a matter of reasonable cost/yields. >DUV is blocked through sanctions as well. Please don't make misleading claims. Apologies for the poor wording, but this was neither supposed to be misleading nor is, to the best of my knowledge, misleading in the sense you imply. I am fairly certain I read about DUV deliveries sometime in 2020-2021 and according to this[1] the ban on DUV only effectively starts this year. My point was that that they weren't blocked from DUV, as in in the past, and that allowed SMIC and China in general a lot easier access to DUV. It's only with EUV that we could talk about actually developing a native capability alone. >And yes TSMC was indeed producing 7nm using DUV before using EUV, but that doesn't mean that our wonderfully talented politicians and think tanks understand any of that given that just last year these geniuses were gloating that the export controls would throw back Chinas access to advanced chips decades. Not the way I would phrase it, but I would be hard pressed to disagree. [1] https://technode.com/2023/09/04/asmls-export-of-chip-making-machines-to-china-valid-until-year-end/ https://technode.com/2023/09/04/asmls-export-of-chip-making-...

rbanffy 3y ago
> in that case it's no longer a matter of reasonable cost/yields. This is an interesting point. Considering the extremely difficult engineering problem of the ASML machines, China might opt for an entirely different technology that, although more expensive and impractical for those with access to ASML EUV machines, could eventually allow them a better evolutionary path towards smaller geometries. Blocking access to tech can have unintended effects.