5 ms·

Likely the same thing that's caused Apple's stock to drop significantly yesterday and today - China has banned iPhones for government officials at work. While

Likely the same thing that's caused Apple's stock to drop significantly yesterday and today - China has banned iPhones for government officials at work. While that in and of itself isn't a huge problem, the broader concern is that this is part of a government effort to push homegrown phones (and chips). That's compounded by the fact that Huawei just revealed a phone with a 7nm chip, which is technology they weren't expected to have. If the Chinese population moves to Chinese-made phones with Chinese-made chips, it'll certainly have a negative impact on ASML.

rjzzleep 3y ago
Given that just a few months ago a lot of the HN crowd was frantically down voting anyone who was predicting such a thing and denouncing them as CCP shill, simply for being realistic I think it's a good thing that they are being humbled a bit. Being humbled isn't a bad thing. I grew up in Germany, and until I moved to Asia I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. I suspect that that is very much the case for large numbers of Americans and even more so in the European and American political class.
- Semaphor 3y ago
  > I grew in Germany and until I moved to Asia, I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. That requires to be pretty sheltered, culturally, though. I’m (also German) pretty much on the opposite end, and regularly surprised how many things are indeed German.
- gs17 3y ago
  > Being humbled isn't a bad thing. I grew in Germany and until I moved to Asia, I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. I had a kind of funny example of that, a Chinese student named Weiman buying a cart full of Weiman brand cleaning products. Pronounced totally different.
ebruchez 3y ago
> a phone with a 7nm chip, which is technology they weren't expected to have. They may have it but so far there is no independent confirmation of that. Skepticism is warranted at this point.
- idopmstuff 3y ago
  Sure, but buy the rumor, sell the news, as the saying goes (though I guess the reverse in this case).
- dragonelite 3y ago
  Well the benchmark result do show its close to Snapdragon gen 1. So given those metrics it makes sense it has at least 6~7nm performance characteristic. But the SOC is not the special thing about the Mate 60 its the 5g and satellite communication module. China is now free to chart its own way again don't have to cooperate with US companies on 6g standards etc. Given how diplomatically and economically the world is being split into a NATO and BRICS camps. So i wouldn't be surprised if the tech standards will also split into US, EU vs CN, RUS, IRAN sphere.
minorannoyance2 3y ago
While a common misconception it is not actually unexpected news, SMIC was reported to be able to reach 7nm years ago and their capabilities mostly track with those expectations over the years (not an expert in any way, but I have read those reports for the last 5 years). What was blocked through sanctions is the EUV machines, not the DUV. And then there is plenty of reports of China stealing tech from TSMC/Samsung/others. And both TSMC and Samsung have done 7nm with DUV before. So this was expected. To give some additional context - actual fully native capability of SMIC up until very recently has been 28nm, with this copied tech they can do a replica of TSMC 7nm. But that's it, without EUV it is very unlikely they can go much further with this. All of the new nodes that will be coming soon are to the best of our current understanding physically impossible to achieve with DUV.
- reportingsjr 3y ago
  You hit the nail on the head. SMIC can get a bit further with DUV, but they are certainly going to get eaten up with multi patterning. The additional cost and complexity from this will be significant.
- rjzzleep 3y ago
  Actually Korean industry experts expect that SMIC will probably be able to create 3nm and 5nm without access to EUV[1] machines. This guy claims that 7nm is the last feasible node with DUV only[2], but what does China care about the infeasibility of the node? They have over a billion people produce an order of magnitude more engineers per year than we do and print their own money. DUV is blocked through sanctions as well. Please don't make misleading claims. The ban also goes way beyond just lithography and includes a lot of other tooling. On top of that the sanctions seem to have been extended to not only block access to the machines but also to after purchase servicing, which actually led China to threaten ASML to buy back the machines should that be the case. And yes TSMC was indeed producing 7nm using DUV before using EUV, but that doesn't mean that our wonderfully talented politicians and think tanks understand any of that given that just last year these geniuses were gloating that the export controls would throw back Chinas access to advanced chips decades. [1] https://m.sedaily.com/NewsViewAmp/29UKVB5O3N https://m.sedaily.com/NewsViewAmp/29UKVB5O3N [2] https://twitter.com/Tech_Reve/status/1699664604568355135 https://twitter.com/Tech_Reve/status/1699664604568355135
AndyMcConachie 3y ago
My understanding is that Huawei was able to make a 7nm chip because they had ASML DUV machines. From ASML's perspective they didn't have any choice. The US State Dept made the Dutch government do it. Rutte made a show of putting up a fight against the USA, but caved in about a week. Worst yet, the final deal was secret. We'll never know what deal was worked out for the Dutch politicians in the USA's pocket. As a Dutch citizen it's scary to watch our government and the rest of the EU go against it's own best interests. We are vassals of the USA and it would appear our elites are completely captured.
- unethical_ban 3y ago
  As an American, I would love the EU to have superpower status as well, just so they would stop complaining about the US every time we fight authoritarian, undemocratic wannabe hegemons. Please, enable Chinese military and technological superiority. The Chinese government is famously honorable and decent to western European political and social values. To clarify, do you think it is in EU or Dutch best interests long term to have China on the leading edge of AI and computing?
  - Animatronio 3y ago
    That would also enable the EU to stop being in tow of the US in every effing disaster like Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and so on.
  - the-dude 3y ago
    You can stick your wars up where the sun doesn't shine.
- phonon 3y ago
  Much of ASML's underlying DUV/EUV technology is developed by its Cymer division (which they acquired) which is based in California. Why would it surprise you that the US wants to enact some export restrictions on technology that is developed in the US?
  - 3y ago
christkv 3y ago
If you are taking about the new Huawei phone the theory is that it’s just repurposed Kirin 9000 chips hoarded before the sanctions and not a custom design. So basically a propagada performance. I guess someone will get hold of a phone and tear it down eventually.
- sct202 3y ago
  TechInsights has already done a tear down and write up on what they found, they have electron microscope cross-sections for subscribers, and there are screenshots floating around on Twitter and the Semiwiki forums. It does seem real, but who knows the volume or cost at this point. https://www.techinsights.com/blog/techinsights-finds-smic-7nm-n2-huawei-mate-60-pro https://www.techinsights.com/blog/techinsights-finds-smic-7n...
throwaway4good 3y ago
Qualcomm (mobile phone SoC and modems) and Broadcom (5G radio chips) are two most directly hit by the Huawei breakthroughs: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM?p=QCOM&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM?p=QCOM&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QRVO?p=QRVO&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QRVO?p=QRVO&.tsrc=fin-srch (Funny it has taken the market almost a full week to realise just how big news the Mate 60 is.) Apple will take a hit on the iPhone 15 sales in China but it is not going to be banned. The banning chatter (which has been there before) is basically China saying hey US - now that you see we have alternatives maybe you wanna cool it on the tech war ... or else.
- throwaway4good 3y ago
  Actually it does not seem to be related to the China news as SMIC has suffered a similar loss in Hong Kong trading today: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0981.HK?p=0981.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0981.HK?p=0981.HK&.tsrc=fin-...
rbanffy 3y ago
> the broader concern is that this is part of a government effort to push homegrown phones I would say government officials carrying equipment they haven’t fully audited into sensitive meetings or using it to work on secret documents would be a HUGE no-no. In the early 2000’s I was helping to get across the message it was a terrible idea for the Brazilian government (military included) to rely on (mostly) Microsoft products for office applications and that, instead, it’d be better to invest in local collaboration over open source software equivalents. For a lot of things, it stuck.

rjzzleep 3y ago

Given that just a few months ago a lot of the HN crowd was frantically down voting anyone who was predicting such a thing and denouncing them as CCP shill, simply for being realistic I think it's a good thing that they are being humbled a bit. Being humbled isn't a bad thing. I grew up in Germany, and until I moved to Asia I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. I suspect that that is very much the case for large numbers of Americans and even more so in the European and American political class.

Semaphor 3y ago
> I grew in Germany and until I moved to Asia, I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. That requires to be pretty sheltered, culturally, though. I’m (also German) pretty much on the opposite end, and regularly surprised how many things are indeed German.
gs17 3y ago
> Being humbled isn't a bad thing. I grew in Germany and until I moved to Asia, I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. I had a kind of funny example of that, a Chinese student named Weiman buying a cart full of Weiman brand cleaning products. Pronounced totally different.

ebruchez 3y ago

> a phone with a 7nm chip, which is technology they weren't expected to have. They may have it but so far there is no independent confirmation of that. Skepticism is warranted at this point.

idopmstuff 3y ago
Sure, but buy the rumor, sell the news, as the saying goes (though I guess the reverse in this case).
dragonelite 3y ago
Well the benchmark result do show its close to Snapdragon gen 1. So given those metrics it makes sense it has at least 6~7nm performance characteristic. But the SOC is not the special thing about the Mate 60 its the 5g and satellite communication module. China is now free to chart its own way again don't have to cooperate with US companies on 6g standards etc. Given how diplomatically and economically the world is being split into a NATO and BRICS camps. So i wouldn't be surprised if the tech standards will also split into US, EU vs CN, RUS, IRAN sphere.

minorannoyance2 3y ago

While a common misconception it is not actually unexpected news, SMIC was reported to be able to reach 7nm years ago and their capabilities mostly track with those expectations over the years (not an expert in any way, but I have read those reports for the last 5 years). What was blocked through sanctions is the EUV machines, not the DUV. And then there is plenty of reports of China stealing tech from TSMC/Samsung/others. And both TSMC and Samsung have done 7nm with DUV before. So this was expected. To give some additional context - actual fully native capability of SMIC up until very recently has been 28nm, with this copied tech they can do a replica of TSMC 7nm. But that's it, without EUV it is very unlikely they can go much further with this. All of the new nodes that will be coming soon are to the best of our current understanding physically impossible to achieve with DUV.

reportingsjr 3y ago
You hit the nail on the head. SMIC can get a bit further with DUV, but they are certainly going to get eaten up with multi patterning. The additional cost and complexity from this will be significant.
rjzzleep 3y ago
Actually Korean industry experts expect that SMIC will probably be able to create 3nm and 5nm without access to EUV[1] machines. This guy claims that 7nm is the last feasible node with DUV only[2], but what does China care about the infeasibility of the node? They have over a billion people produce an order of magnitude more engineers per year than we do and print their own money. DUV is blocked through sanctions as well. Please don't make misleading claims. The ban also goes way beyond just lithography and includes a lot of other tooling. On top of that the sanctions seem to have been extended to not only block access to the machines but also to after purchase servicing, which actually led China to threaten ASML to buy back the machines should that be the case. And yes TSMC was indeed producing 7nm using DUV before using EUV, but that doesn't mean that our wonderfully talented politicians and think tanks understand any of that given that just last year these geniuses were gloating that the export controls would throw back Chinas access to advanced chips decades. [1] https://m.sedaily.com/NewsViewAmp/29UKVB5O3N https://m.sedaily.com/NewsViewAmp/29UKVB5O3N [2] https://twitter.com/Tech_Reve/status/1699664604568355135 https://twitter.com/Tech_Reve/status/1699664604568355135

AndyMcConachie 3y ago

My understanding is that Huawei was able to make a 7nm chip because they had ASML DUV machines. From ASML's perspective they didn't have any choice. The US State Dept made the Dutch government do it. Rutte made a show of putting up a fight against the USA, but caved in about a week. Worst yet, the final deal was secret. We'll never know what deal was worked out for the Dutch politicians in the USA's pocket. As a Dutch citizen it's scary to watch our government and the rest of the EU go against it's own best interests. We are vassals of the USA and it would appear our elites are completely captured.

unethical_ban 3y ago
As an American, I would love the EU to have superpower status as well, just so they would stop complaining about the US every time we fight authoritarian, undemocratic wannabe hegemons. Please, enable Chinese military and technological superiority. The Chinese government is famously honorable and decent to western European political and social values. To clarify, do you think it is in EU or Dutch best interests long term to have China on the leading edge of AI and computing?
- Animatronio 3y ago
  That would also enable the EU to stop being in tow of the US in every effing disaster like Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and so on.
- the-dude 3y ago
  You can stick your wars up where the sun doesn't shine.
phonon 3y ago
Much of ASML's underlying DUV/EUV technology is developed by its Cymer division (which they acquired) which is based in California. Why would it surprise you that the US wants to enact some export restrictions on technology that is developed in the US?
- 3y ago

christkv 3y ago

If you are taking about the new Huawei phone the theory is that it’s just repurposed Kirin 9000 chips hoarded before the sanctions and not a custom design. So basically a propagada performance. I guess someone will get hold of a phone and tear it down eventually.

sct202 3y ago
TechInsights has already done a tear down and write up on what they found, they have electron microscope cross-sections for subscribers, and there are screenshots floating around on Twitter and the Semiwiki forums. It does seem real, but who knows the volume or cost at this point. https://www.techinsights.com/blog/techinsights-finds-smic-7nm-n2-huawei-mate-60-pro https://www.techinsights.com/blog/techinsights-finds-smic-7n...

throwaway4good 3y ago

Qualcomm (mobile phone SoC and modems) and Broadcom (5G radio chips) are two most directly hit by the Huawei breakthroughs: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM?p=QCOM&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM?p=QCOM&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QRVO?p=QRVO&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QRVO?p=QRVO&.tsrc=fin-srch (Funny it has taken the market almost a full week to realise just how big news the Mate 60 is.) Apple will take a hit on the iPhone 15 sales in China but it is not going to be banned. The banning chatter (which has been there before) is basically China saying hey US - now that you see we have alternatives maybe you wanna cool it on the tech war ... or else.

throwaway4good 3y ago
Actually it does not seem to be related to the China news as SMIC has suffered a similar loss in Hong Kong trading today: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0981.HK?p=0981.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0981.HK?p=0981.HK&.tsrc=fin-...

rbanffy 3y ago

> the broader concern is that this is part of a government effort to push homegrown phones I would say government officials carrying equipment they haven’t fully audited into sensitive meetings or using it to work on secret documents would be a HUGE no-no. In the early 2000’s I was helping to get across the message it was a terrible idea for the Brazilian government (military included) to rely on (mostly) Microsoft products for office applications and that, instead, it’d be better to invest in local collaboration over open source software equivalents. For a lot of things, it stuck.