17 ms·

Yet the stock drops 4%. What gives?

by ptsneves 3y ago

sadhorse 3y ago
The trading bots probably think the retail price should be a little higher. It doesn't mean anything.
elvircrn 3y ago
The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
drexlspivey 3y ago
That's not really any big news, they are on track with their schedule which was public info.
Cthulhu_ 3y ago
A stock figure is a completely separate entity from a company; trying to predict what it'll do is futile / a gamble.
- cma 3y ago
  What does completely mean here?
  - gottorf 3y ago
    Not the GP, but I guess that there isn't much of a predictive power of good or bad news that comes out of a company towards the movement of its stock price. Obviously the company and its stock price are not "completely" separate, but what a company does in the short, medium, and long terms may not even account for half of the short, medium, and long-term changes in its stock price.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> What gives? Apple stock is down, ostensibly on China’s iPhone curbs [1]. This appears to have carried through to TSMC stock, which might explain ASML’s movement. (Whatever replaces those unsold iPhones presumably won’t use chips built with ASML’s machines.) [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/apple-poised-to-shed-194-billion-as-china-broadens-iphone-ban?srnd=premium https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/apple-poi...
idopmstuff 3y ago
Likely the same thing that's caused Apple's stock to drop significantly yesterday and today - China has banned iPhones for government officials at work. While that in and of itself isn't a huge problem, the broader concern is that this is part of a government effort to push homegrown phones (and chips). That's compounded by the fact that Huawei just revealed a phone with a 7nm chip, which is technology they weren't expected to have. If the Chinese population moves to Chinese-made phones with Chinese-made chips, it'll certainly have a negative impact on ASML.
- rjzzleep 3y ago
  Given that just a few months ago a lot of the HN crowd was frantically down voting anyone who was predicting such a thing and denouncing them as CCP shill, simply for being realistic I think it's a good thing that they are being humbled a bit. Being humbled isn't a bad thing. I grew up in Germany, and until I moved to Asia I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. I suspect that that is very much the case for large numbers of Americans and even more so in the European and American political class.
  - Semaphor 3y ago
    > I grew in Germany and until I moved to Asia, I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. That requires to be pretty sheltered, culturally, though. I’m (also German) pretty much on the opposite end, and regularly surprised how many things are indeed German.
  - gs17 3y ago
    > Being humbled isn't a bad thing. I grew in Germany and until I moved to Asia, I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. I had a kind of funny example of that, a Chinese student named Weiman buying a cart full of Weiman brand cleaning products. Pronounced totally different.
- ebruchez 3y ago
traceroute66 3y ago
> Yet the stock drops 4%. What gives? Learn to ignore short-term market movements. End of story. Honestly, modern-markets are just nuts short term, there are so many conflicting parties seeking short-term profits. On the professional side you've got the hedge funds, the algo traders and people like that. They pretty much trade fully automated, so if their algorithm decided to sell ASML on the news after their text analysis of the RNS or whatever then that's what happens. Then on the retail side you've got lots of places where you can go punt with leveraged trades (CFDs and spread bets). If you're A-book retail the broker will like-for-like replicate what you're doing on the market. If you're B-book retail (most people !) then your broker will take a position on the market based upon their net view and their appetite for risk. In addition to the above, the final piece of the puzzle is that moves in "hot" stocks are always amplified due to the sheer volume. Nobody (should !) blink twice if a FAANG drops 4% in a day and its sort of the same thing with ASML.
- somedude895 3y ago
  I just love when there's a news story about a scandal at some company ending in "Their stock dropped by 1% today."
colechristensen 3y ago
Short term gains on positive news are based on surprise, this apparently is not at all unexpected. On top of that there’s some Apple China news.

Yet the stock drops 4%. What gives?

sadhorse 3y ago

The trading bots probably think the retail price should be a little higher. It doesn't mean anything.

elvircrn 3y ago

The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

drexlspivey 3y ago

That's not really any big news, they are on track with their schedule which was public info.

Cthulhu_ 3y ago

A stock figure is a completely separate entity from a company; trying to predict what it'll do is futile / a gamble.

cma 3y ago
What does completely mean here?
- gottorf 3y ago
  Not the GP, but I guess that there isn't much of a predictive power of good or bad news that comes out of a company towards the movement of its stock price. Obviously the company and its stock price are not "completely" separate, but what a company does in the short, medium, and long terms may not even account for half of the short, medium, and long-term changes in its stock price.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> What gives? Apple stock is down, ostensibly on China’s iPhone curbs [1]. This appears to have carried through to TSMC stock, which might explain ASML’s movement. (Whatever replaces those unsold iPhones presumably won’t use chips built with ASML’s machines.) [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/apple-poised-to-shed-194-billion-as-china-broadens-iphone-ban?srnd=premium https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/apple-poi...

idopmstuff 3y ago

Likely the same thing that's caused Apple's stock to drop significantly yesterday and today - China has banned iPhones for government officials at work. While that in and of itself isn't a huge problem, the broader concern is that this is part of a government effort to push homegrown phones (and chips). That's compounded by the fact that Huawei just revealed a phone with a 7nm chip, which is technology they weren't expected to have. If the Chinese population moves to Chinese-made phones with Chinese-made chips, it'll certainly have a negative impact on ASML.

rjzzleep 3y ago
Given that just a few months ago a lot of the HN crowd was frantically down voting anyone who was predicting such a thing and denouncing them as CCP shill, simply for being realistic I think it's a good thing that they are being humbled a bit. Being humbled isn't a bad thing. I grew up in Germany, and until I moved to Asia I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. I suspect that that is very much the case for large numbers of Americans and even more so in the European and American political class.
- Semaphor 3y ago
  > I grew in Germany and until I moved to Asia, I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. That requires to be pretty sheltered, culturally, though. I’m (also German) pretty much on the opposite end, and regularly surprised how many things are indeed German.
- gs17 3y ago
  > Being humbled isn't a bad thing. I grew in Germany and until I moved to Asia, I actually thought that most of everything that has a name that can remotely be pronounced in a German fashion was in fact German. I had a kind of funny example of that, a Chinese student named Weiman buying a cart full of Weiman brand cleaning products. Pronounced totally different.
ebruchez 3y ago

traceroute66 3y ago

> Yet the stock drops 4%. What gives? Learn to ignore short-term market movements. End of story. Honestly, modern-markets are just nuts short term, there are so many conflicting parties seeking short-term profits. On the professional side you've got the hedge funds, the algo traders and people like that. They pretty much trade fully automated, so if their algorithm decided to sell ASML on the news after their text analysis of the RNS or whatever then that's what happens. Then on the retail side you've got lots of places where you can go punt with leveraged trades (CFDs and spread bets). If you're A-book retail the broker will like-for-like replicate what you're doing on the market. If you're B-book retail (most people !) then your broker will take a position on the market based upon their net view and their appetite for risk. In addition to the above, the final piece of the puzzle is that moves in "hot" stocks are always amplified due to the sheer volume. Nobody (should !) blink twice if a FAANG drops 4% in a day and its sort of the same thing with ASML.

somedude895 3y ago
I just love when there's a news story about a scandal at some company ending in "Their stock dropped by 1% today."

colechristensen 3y ago

Short term gains on positive news are based on surprise, this apparently is not at all unexpected. On top of that there’s some Apple China news.