It does make sense for some people. Some people might say it's somewhat likely Sweden is still not a NATO member at the end of the year – and mean there's a 10

It does make sense for some people. Some people might say it's somewhat likely Sweden is still not a NATO member at the end of the year – and mean there's a 10 % probability it happens. That's the problem with these fuzzy labels – the variance between individuals (and even within individuals across time) is huge.