5 ms·
Oh, yes, its not linear, its exponential the moment..
by sparrowInHand 3y ago
Oh, yes, its not linear, its exponential the moment..
- bheadmaster 3y agoPopulation growth was exponential too, until it stopped being exponential. Real world doesn't always follow our well-behaved mathematical functions.
- anigbrowl 3y agoOne useful heuristic I've learned along the way is that when I think something is exponential, it's probably a sigmoid function.
- BytesAndGears 3y agoYeah, they have a graph of temperatures from 1940 onwards with a linear trend line— but just by looking at the data points, it seems that an exponential curve would fit the data better. Maybe someone more skilled than me has analyzed that already? Because just eyeballing it, is really making me nervous about the exponential future projection of that graph of the next 20 years
- tobr 3y agoThis was discussed in the latest episode of The Ezra Klein Show[1]. Apparently aerosols artificially held down temperatures roughly 1940–1980, after which they started to be reduced (from my memory of what they discussed). So it might be that the contribution of the greenhouse effect is masked in that period of the temperature graph. 1: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-kate-marvel.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/opinion/ezra-klein-podcas...
- taylodl 3y agoWere the aerosols from above-ground nuclear bomb detonations? I remember seeing a graph years and years ago that showed the temperatures really starting to rise was above-ground nuclear bomb testing was banned. Crazy spur-of-the-moment idea - should we pursue dumping some sort of aerosol into the upper atmosphere to reduce the amount of heat Earth receives from the sun? Obviously this shouldn't be pursued in lieu of curtailing our pumping C02 into the atmosphere, but it could alleviate some of the damaging effects from what we've already done.
- jamesash 3y agoYC backed: https://makesunsets.com/ https://makesunsets.com/
- scythe 3y agoAerosols were probably sulfuric acid. Unfortunately this has negative side-effects. Aerosol can also be produced by monoterpenes, e.g. pinene, but there is disagreement about whether this can be helpful.
- oh_sigh 3y agoThe crazy part about this is that doing something like that is within reach of a number of wealthy individuals. All it takes is one delusional billionaire to throw caution, and a metric buttload of aerosols to the wind and we will find out whether it was a good idea or not.
- derefr 3y agoPutting up a geosynchronous mirrored-foil tarp that shadows the entirety of one of earth's larger deserts would take about the same amount of effort — and be much easier to reverse if it turns out to be a bad idea.
- oh_sigh 3y agoI think the important part here is you could do the aerosol injection secretly. It's pretty much impossible to launch a rocket to geosync orbit without a major government getting involved in your business.
- c1sc0 3y agoThis has been studied in pretty extensive detail & what I remember is that it’d require a custom plane design to get to efficiencies where this is worth pursuing. And the number of flights required would be hard to hide from a motivated government adversary. Still worth pursuing. Any takers on here?
- roter 3y agoA good review paper on "global dimming" and changes in surface shortwave radiation is by Wild [0]. [0] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD011470 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/200...
- BLKNSLVR 3y agoScroll to the end: https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/
- scythe 3y agoIt's supposed to be quadratic, IIRC. Total GHG is linear, then integrate over time. Of course this is a crude approach, but it's suggestive.