9 ms·
Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
- sparrowInHand 3y agoOh, yes, its not linear, its exponential the moment..
- bheadmaster 3y agoPopulation growth was exponential too, until it stopped being exponential. Real world doesn't always follow our well-behaved mathematical functions.
- anigbrowl 3y agoOne useful heuristic I've learned along the way is that when I think something is exponential, it's probably a sigmoid function.
- BytesAndGears 3y agoYeah, they have a graph of temperatures from 1940 onwards with a linear trend line— but just by looking at the data points, it seems that an exponential curve would fit the data better. Maybe someone more skilled than me has analyzed that already? Because just eyeballing it, is really making me nervous about the exponential future projection of that graph of the next 20 years
- tobr 3y agoThis was discussed in the latest episode of The Ezra Klein Show[1]. Apparently aerosols artificially held down temperatures roughly 1940–1980, after which they started to be reduced (from my memory of what they discussed). So it might be that the contribution of the greenhouse effect is masked in that period of the temperature graph. 1: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-kate-marvel.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/opinion/ezra-klein-podcas...
- taylodl 3y agoWere the aerosols from above-ground nuclear bomb detonations? I remember seeing a graph years and years ago that showed the temperatures really starting to rise was above-ground nuclear bomb testing was banned. Crazy spur-of-the-moment idea - should we pursue dumping some sort of aerosol into the upper atmosphere to reduce the amount of heat Earth receives from the sun? Obviously this shouldn't be pursued in lieu of curtailing our pumping C02 into the atmosphere, but it could alleviate some of the damaging effects from what we've already done.
- jamesash 3y agoYC backed: https://makesunsets.com/ https://makesunsets.com/
- scythe 3y agoAerosols were probably sulfuric acid. Unfortunately this has negative side-effects. Aerosol can also be produced by monoterpenes, e.g. pinene, but there is disagreement about whether this can be helpful.
- oh_sigh 3y agoThe crazy part about this is that doing something like that is within reach of a number of wealthy individuals. All it takes is one delusional billionaire to throw caution, and a metric buttload of aerosols to the wind and we will find out whether it was a good idea or not.
- derefr 3y agoPutting up a geosynchronous mirrored-foil tarp that shadows the entirety of one of earth's larger deserts would take about the same amount of effort — and be much easier to reverse if it turns out to be a bad idea.
- oh_sigh 3y agoI think the important part here is you could do the aerosol injection secretly. It's pretty much impossible to launch a rocket to geosync orbit without a major government getting involved in your business.
- BLKNSLVR 3y agoScroll to the end: https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/
- scythe 3y agoIt's supposed to be quadratic, IIRC. Total GHG is linear, then integrate over time. Of course this is a crude approach, but it's suggestive.
- tejohnso 3y ago> Burgess said the summer had been one of tumbling records and it would only get worse if the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels. It would get worse even if we stopped burning fossil fuels immediately. Because of lag effects, tipping points, and masking.
- louwrentius 3y agoWhy is this relevant: you seem to imply “don’t bother”. I would disagree strongly.
- BLKNSLVR 3y agoI get the opposite implication, i.e. Holy shit, even if we hit the brakes we're gonna slide over the cliff with momentum.
- simpleuser27 3y agoBecause HN is home to performative contrariness - making an observation for no substantive reason other than to show you "know" something.
- tejohnso 3y agoIt's relevant because people continue to downplay just how dire the situation is. It's not only going to get worse if we continue burning fossil fuels. It's going to get worse no matter what. If accepting that would lead you to conclude that we shouldn't bother, so be it. That's your interpretation, not mine. But downplaying those facts so that you can feel better about the situation is something I would disagree with strongly.
- louwrentius 3y agoI‘m on your side but your initial response would have meant something completely different to me, if you added that first sentence: > It’s relevant because people continue to downplay just how dire the situation is.
- TheOtherHobbes 3y ago
- jiofj 3y ago(records began 80 years ago)
- SketchySeaBeast 3y agohttps://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/world/july-hottest-month-record-climate/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/world/july-hottest-month-reco... There is a decent amount of confidence that it's an outlier in the last 120,000 years, but you're right, there are no written records that far back. Regardless, do you find it reassuring to know that the world is rapidly changing in a way that's proving to be predictable? We can easily look at that chart and guess what it's going to look like over the next 10 years.
- zacharytelschow 3y ago> We can easily look at that chart and guess what it's going to look like over the next 10 years. That's why all the past predictions have been so accurate, right? "But we know more now." We do not. Some intellectual humility by those wanting tyranical control over our lives would be fantastic.
- anigbrowl 3y agotyranical control over our lives Stop drinking out of poisoned wells.
- mrguyorama 3y agoYou mean the 1970s internal exxon graph that tracks very well with reality?
- conception 3y agohttps://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-m... Past predictions generally have been under estimating what’s actually happening.
- edgyquant 3y ago
- 1-6 3y agoPerhaps we're also measuring temps more than ever with greater data collection.
- SketchySeaBeast 3y agoI don't understand, are you arguing that maybe if they'd measured the right July day in 1951 then we'd see that that was the warmest month?
- louwrentius 3y agoWhy is this observation relevant?
- brookst 3y agoAre you saying that larger sample sizes lead to greater variance in results? Because I don’t think statistics usually works that way.
- piva00 3y agoThat wouldn't skew the resulting average/mean that much, it would just be less accurate for specific localities...
- flagged24 3y agoIf we have more data points in cities, this could skew the results. I live in a forested area and going into the city can easily add 3 or 4 degrees Celsius.
- flagged24 3y agoI did some reading and this is actually happening. [0] Sensors are increasingly being surrounded by urbanization and this influences readings by the heat island effect. [0] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262564641_Modelling_the_influence_of_urbanization_on_the_20th_century_temperature_record_of_weather_station_De_Bilt_The_Netherlands https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262564641_Modelling...
- lebuffon 3y agoI just heard about a jump in atmospheric methane that is not understood. The oil/gas industry has made some progress to curtail methane emissions so we don't think it is that gang. I wonder about millions of tons of frozen ancient vegetation in Canada and Russia beginning to rot. ? One idea is that we have hit the true "terminus" point of the past ice age and temperatures will rise rapidly over the next few decades and then stabilize at the new "normal". Human CO2 might have pushed temps up but this could be much bigger than we expected. https://theconversation.com/rising-methane-could-be-a-sign-that-earths-climate-is-part-way-through-a-termination-level-transition-211211 https://theconversation.com/rising-methane-could-be-a-sign-t... https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/ https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/
- SketchySeaBeast 3y ago> The oil/gas industry has made some progress to curtail methane emissions so we don't think it is that gang. I don't know if we can reach that conclusion. It's been discovered, in Canada at least, that O&G is vastly under-reporting its methane production. I imagine other areas of the world might be even worse. https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/30-40-per-cent-of-methane-emissions-from-saskatchewan-s-oil-and-gas-sector-aren-t-being-reported-study-1.6485220 https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/30-40-per-cen...
- beebeepka 3y agoBut they conducted extensive reviews on everything they do and concluded that we should look elsewhere. Maybe methane grows on trees or everyone just had more gas recently Oil, sorry energy, companies would never ever lie
- Synaesthesia 3y agoUzbekistan and Nigeria are pretty bad on methane emissions and the Nordstream attack also released quite a lot. War is highly destructive environmentally and uses a lot of fuel, so this Ukraine war is not helping.
- 3y ago
- phkahler 3y agoNo doubt the big Canadian Barbecue had a significant effect. Not to say there is no trend, just that this particular year is exceptional for at least on reason.
- Macha 3y agoI also wonder if the war in Ukraine had an effect too. To my understanding in a lot of the initial stage, Russia was extracting as much natural gas as stopping the extraction process would render it hard to restart, but with much reduced opportunities to sell it, they were just flaring the excess gas. Of course, the traditional customers of that gas were burning gas too, sourced from elsewhere via LNG, or in some cases, coal. So in effect in 2022, we ended up double dipping on the european fossil fuel usage as it was burned both in europe and in russia.
- phkahler 3y agoThe war has also affected air travel, which puts a lot of water vapor in the sky and seeds cloud formation in some conditions.
- SketchySeaBeast 3y agoSure, but you can look at the rest of the graph and see the clear trend even if you assume 2023 is an exceptional outlier to the exceptional.
- abenga 3y agoIt does seem like every subsequent year is exceptional though. This is the Simpsons' "the hottest year of your life so far" meme personified.
- nprateem 3y agoCongratulations everyone, we did it!
- myshpa 3y agohttps://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ Sea temperatures are so high this year that the temperature axis on the graphs had to be extended. Don't forget to switch to the North Atlantic Area. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice/ The ice extent is also very low. Switch to the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent - it's currently winter there.
- jhoechtl 3y agoHow was southern summer? How the world climate in general? Meaningless without perspective.
- matthewdgreen 3y agoHeat waves in South America have been ridiculously bad as well, even in winter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_South_America_heat_wave https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_South_America_heat_wave
- abenga 3y agoIs this supposed to be a gotcha? Do you think everyone is ignoring some half of the picture that somehow makes this news a wash?
- akitzmiller 3y agoSomebody mentioned this in a reply, but it deserves to be a top level comment. A good chunk of this year's unusual heat may be attributable to a reduction in SO2 emissions from shipping. Article cites other factors as well, but this implies that 2023 is the new normal. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shippin...
- _most 3y agoHow do people here feel about geoengineering? Seems like we have a pretty good tool to counteract the warming effects (although not the ocean acidification affects) with SO2. Not sure why it's not taken seriously.
- c1sc0 3y agoI’m all in. It’s clear that none of our governments are up to the task of taking on this global coordination problem. The science is clear by now, so let the engineers take over & do what they do best: solve the damn problem.