3 ms·
There's a lot to be said about this— I want to bring up the conversation around exports. I'm no expert, but I was having a look at these. The primary export of
by aylmao 3y ago
There's a lot to be said about this— I want to bring up the conversation around exports. I'm no expert, but I was having a look at these.
The primary export of the UK are services, making almost half (~48%) of their total [1]. I can't help but compare this with France at ~34% [2], and Germany at ~19% [3].
As the rest of the world rises, how defensible is this sector for the UK? Germany exports a lot of industrial machinery, pharmaceutical products and vehicles, which means factories, a complex supply chain, brand recognition, patents, etc. Overall, things that are hard to move or replicate abroad.
- 28% of the UKs exports are Information Communications Technology. It has IMO a weirdly broad definition (including "marketing, manufacturing, assembling, servicing, installing, maintaining and/or repairing systems, software, equipment, machines, devices and apparatus" [4]), but it sounds to me like it's in large part knowledge-based, digital work.
What prevents an industry that doesn't involve machinery, factories, and supply chains from moving to India, for example? Net (exports minus imports), the UK accounted for 24.3% of ICT worldwide in 2003, and India for 3.3%. Now India is 16.3% net and the UK 13% [6].
- 13% of the UKs exports are Insurance and Finance. In 2003 the UK, net, was %40.7 worldwide. now it's 28%, mostly to the gain of the USA [7].
The UK has been running a trade deficit of about ~1.5% of GDP every year since 1998 [5][8], without the USA's capacity to print USD. I'm no expert. I just wonder if the UK is betting too much of its economy on industries where it'll have a hard time remaining as competitive as it currently is.
[1]: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=81&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2021&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=81&queryLevel=...
[2]: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=77&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2021&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=77&queryLevel=...
[3]: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=61&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2021&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=61&queryLevel=...
[4]: https://www.michalsons.com/blog/what-is-ict/2525#:~:text=%E2%80%9CICT%E2%80%9D%20means%20Information%20and%20Communication,%3B%20SAITIS%202000%3A%203)%E2%80%9D https://www.michalsons.com/blog/what-is-ict/2525#:~:text=%E2...
[5]: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stack?country=undefined&year=2021&queryLevel=undefined&startYear=1995&productClass=HS&product=4004&target=Product&partner=undefined https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stack?country=undefine...
[5]: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/trade-balance-deficit https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/tra...
[6]: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stack?country=undefined&year=2021&queryLevel=undefined&startYear=1995&productClass=HS&tradeFlow=Net&product=403&target=Product&partner=undefined https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stack?country=undefine...
[7]: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stack?country=undefined&year=2021&queryLevel=undefined&startYear=1995&productClass=HS&tradeFlow=Net&product=404&target=Product&partner=undefined https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stack?country=undefine...
[8]: Interestingly, France seems to also have a long-standing trade deficit (since ~2006). Germany has had a surplus since ~1993.
- tonyedgecombe 3y agoI'm not sure that selling physical goods provides much of a moat in itself, you can see that from how much manufacturing has moved to China. I suspect Germany has been able to buck the trend in Europe because it is particularly well run and the UK has been struggling because it is so poorly governed.