8 ms·

Probably the UK central banker has the worst job in the world right now. I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with

by ak_111 3y ago

Probably the UK central banker has the worst job in the world right now. I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with their house price as it is in the UK, while at the same time the increase in house price that people have been conditioned to believe is the norm over the last decades is wholly unsustainable given the stagnant wages. Take a look at house price to wage ratio over the last two decades. Something has to give eventually either a mighty correction in the housing market that will shock many that were lead to believe it is the only safe investment, or an uprising of those who have no chance of getting on the ladder. I would love to be proven wrong by a sudden influx of broad-based well-paying jobs, but I just don’t see how and where they will come from.

wk_end 3y ago
> I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with their house price as it is in the UK [...] Without diminishing the scale of the crisis in the UK: Canada checking in here.
oceanplexian 3y ago
I can’t follow these kinds of comparisons, because housing isn’t a function of wages. The only thing that affects housing prices is the supply of houses. Does the UK have a large supply of houses? Does London have a lot of spare land where they can build new houses? Is the population of the UK increasing or decreasing? These are the only question you need to ask to predict what will happen to real estate values.
- 88913527 3y ago
  Financing seems to have a large impact on prices, as does zoning, and supply. But the ability to borrow money and use leverage is paramount.
- scotty79 3y ago
  > The only thing that affects housing prices is the supply of houses. And supply of capital in search of investment vessel. Wage workers are just taken along for the ride. Most properties in UK are bought and traded for investment purposes. Home ownership of UK is one of the lowest in EU.
  - ffhhttt 3y ago
    > Home ownership of UK is one of the lowest in EU. Not really. Its about on par with France and significantly above Germany.
    - MattPalmer1086 3y ago
      Probably true now, although it used to be higher. Renters in the UK have almost no rights.
- vinyl7 3y ago
  A house can be priced as high as it wants...if no one can afford the mortgage then I guess its just going to sit there with a For Sale sign for decades?
  - MattPalmer1086 3y ago
    In practice that's kind of what happens, barring an economic shock that forces people to sell. House prices are very sticky on the way down. People simply don't sell rather than take a loss, unless they are forced to.
- ak_111 3y ago
  I suggest you do a bit of research on how income relates to house prices. Here is the tldr: in country where most people buy houses on mortgages, and mortgages are given based on a person’s income then wages will pay a direct and very important role on house affordibity. Also house supply is important but far from the only factor effecting house prices. If gov builds 1000 new houses and they instantly get bought by, say, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund it will have virtually no impact on house prices.
  - stevenhuang 3y ago
    If 1000 new houses get built and get bought instantly it won't have an impact on house prices? I beg your pardon? That's 1000 lots of land out of circulation. In no uncertain terms, this will have an affect on local market prices, by making the remaining land more valuable.
    - slyall 3y ago
      It depends what is happening to the houses. If they are empty then prices will remain the same or increase. If they are being rented out then prices to buy should decrease since there will be less demand (since more peopel will be renting and rents will probably decrease).
- dugite-code 3y ago
  > The only thing that affects housing prices is the supply of houses. Well yes and no. I would argue, treating housing as an investment vehicle for both corporate and foreign interests has had the biggest influence on low end housing prices around the world. Corporate buy-ups, government backed loans and "affordability" scemes have all actually pushed pricing higher. To be clear A large percentage of corporate and foreign ownership isn't actually needed to have a large influence on pricing simply because of where they are most likely to invest. Just a couple of percent adds significant upwards pressure on the low end of the market where affordability is felt the most keenly. After all buy low sell high.
  - citrin_ru 3y ago
    Real estate is a lucrative investment only because demand outpacing supply and prices expected to grow indefinitely. If supply will substantially increase it would depress prices and investors will move to jurisdictions where government helps them by restricting supply.
- tonyedgecombe 3y ago
  >The only thing that affects housing prices is the supply of houses. Interest rates have a massive impact on how much people have available to spend.
ditn 3y ago
> I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with their house price as it is in the UK, while at the same time the increase in house price that people have been conditioned to believe is the norm over the last decade is wholly unsustainable given the stagnant wages. Canada.
- gizajob 3y ago
  Also Australia. Property is king.
  - pewter_wiz 3y ago
    Also New Zealand. Surprise! It's a global phenomenon where governments across the world have done everything to ensure housing is the safest investment there can be. As prices go up up up those with, gain, and those without are left paying outrageous sums for rent to pay for someone else's higher and higher mortgage prices.
    - fomine3 3y ago
      Interestingly you guys successfully listed up Five Eyes.
      - pewter_wiz 3y ago
        More like 5 nations with housing crises, am I right?
        darkclouds 3y ago
        No its a 5 eyes psychological warfare program based on Maslows Hierarchy of Needs. So shelter is an essential base layer, and by promoting home ownership, banks are now being used to mess people around if they get out of line in a deniable ops way. If you cant even afford a home, you have that psychological inferiority put on you by only being able to rent. The state is always looking to reduce costs because it can claim to be a low taxation nation, and in reality prisons cost alot, so rather than feel the long arm of the law and end up in prison with todays global technology and ability to look anyone up, causing trouble in peoples home life is now the 5 eyes modus operandi. All sorts of low level stuff going wrong designed to keep a individual busy rectifying said problem, whilst also getting flack from those around them. Its thought people will fight/work harder trying to maintain their home and their life and their families life, so all sorts of low level bad things will happen to an individual or household. Its actually quite nasty some of the things that get done to people, but its always in a deniable way, made to look like incompetence or bad luck, and thats hard to prove because of the way society works. You couldnt tell if a washing machine engineer has deliberately sabotaged your washing machine in a planned obsolesce way or not, but the military leak rumours about people and then people take it upon themselves to contribute to that harassment and intimidation. Things like reddit malicious compliance can give you a taster of some of the things people choose to engage in, but others will take it to the next level which puts peoples lives at risk. Ultimately its called Karma, but the military will pursue you around the country so you even get hassled on holiday. This is a list of some of the things thats been done to me. Stopped by the side of a busy road, engaged in conversation and casually positioned so my back is to the road before individual did something to make me step back into the road in front of moving traffic. Its a high curb so I would have fallen backwards into the road. Head (nose) shot by someone using a silenced snipered rifle whilst walking my dog around a footpath in a farm. Ex directory, countless unknown numbers, international numbered phone calls or call centres. Got a new phone line put in, and started to get the same on that number even though I'd only given the number out to one car dealership. Hassled when holidaying in various places of the UK. Post going missing. Arrow fired into garden, drones flown into garden. Someone filing tax returns for me, when I havent. 1mm diameter x 25-30mm long metal added to takeaway kebabs designed to get lodged in the throat, or do damage to the inside of you mouth. Someone release a small deer in front of the car on an unlit section of dual carriage. Person was hiding behind the armco barrier that makes the central reservation and was trying to cause me to swerve and crash. Over powered cars pulling out to over take forcing me into the verge to avoid a head on crash. NHS claiming letters lost in the post. Fake stuff added to doctors notes, creating fictional events. Courts claiming letters lost in the post in a bid to secure a conviction in my absence for speeding. Countless malware forcing me out of business. Program code being changed so my own software stops working. GCSE Exam results marked down, A-level courses getting messed around with making it untenable to study. Been drugged in social and home settings, and had things done to me. You'll literally get driven to suicide but the ambulance staff will resuscitate you, for more of the same. Reported to police, police not interested! All of this has taken place in the UK. The people behind it are in a position to deny their activity as they automatically have more authority than I would have in court. It also coerces you to get more security, like cctv fitted inside the home and office which enables greater surveillance which is what the spooks want.
coderjames 3y ago
> I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with their house price as it is in the UK, while at the same time the increase in house price that people have been conditioned to believe is the norm over the last decades is wholly unsustainable given the stagnant wages. Take a look at house price to wage ratio over the last two decades. United States. In inflation-adjusted dollars, house prices are up 118% since 1965, but income is up only 18% [1]; alternatively, house-price-to-income ratio has increased from 90x in 2012 to 135x in 2022 [2]. US Millennials have been deemed "the unluckiest generation" when it comes to home ownership in the US. [1] https://www.realestatewitch.com/house-price-to-income-ratio-2021/ https://www.realestatewitch.com/house-price-to-income-ratio-... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/591435/house-price-to-income-ratio-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/591435/house-price-to-in...
- nerdponx 3y ago
  AFAIK Canada is even worse than the US right now, or at least Southern Ontario.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  And in the same time period, the average house size has doubled from 1300sqft to 2600 sqft. So people are paying about twice as much for twice the house.
  - tmnvix 3y ago
    But not twice as much land.
  - willcipriano 3y ago
    This is a true but it's a trick. Sqft in real estate isn't purely the dimensions of the home. A 1300sqft home can become a 2600sqft by virtue of hanging some drywall in the basement. Houses aren't really twice the size they were just sold with unfinished basements new, the occupants later finished the basement (mostly just drywall and a little hvac work) and then it was sold again at its "larger" size.
throw_m239339 3y ago
> I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with their house price as it is in the UK, Ireland, that learned nothing from the 2007 crisis.

by ak_111 3y ago

wk_end 3y ago

> I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with their house price as it is in the UK [...] Without diminishing the scale of the crisis in the UK: Canada checking in here.

oceanplexian 3y ago

I can’t follow these kinds of comparisons, because housing isn’t a function of wages. The only thing that affects housing prices is the supply of houses. Does the UK have a large supply of houses? Does London have a lot of spare land where they can build new houses? Is the population of the UK increasing or decreasing? These are the only question you need to ask to predict what will happen to real estate values.

88913527 3y ago
Financing seems to have a large impact on prices, as does zoning, and supply. But the ability to borrow money and use leverage is paramount.
scotty79 3y ago
> The only thing that affects housing prices is the supply of houses. And supply of capital in search of investment vessel. Wage workers are just taken along for the ride. Most properties in UK are bought and traded for investment purposes. Home ownership of UK is one of the lowest in EU.
- ffhhttt 3y ago
  > Home ownership of UK is one of the lowest in EU. Not really. Its about on par with France and significantly above Germany.
  - MattPalmer1086 3y ago
    Probably true now, although it used to be higher. Renters in the UK have almost no rights.
vinyl7 3y ago
A house can be priced as high as it wants...if no one can afford the mortgage then I guess its just going to sit there with a For Sale sign for decades?
- MattPalmer1086 3y ago
  In practice that's kind of what happens, barring an economic shock that forces people to sell. House prices are very sticky on the way down. People simply don't sell rather than take a loss, unless they are forced to.
ak_111 3y ago
I suggest you do a bit of research on how income relates to house prices. Here is the tldr: in country where most people buy houses on mortgages, and mortgages are given based on a person’s income then wages will pay a direct and very important role on house affordibity. Also house supply is important but far from the only factor effecting house prices. If gov builds 1000 new houses and they instantly get bought by, say, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund it will have virtually no impact on house prices.
- stevenhuang 3y ago
  If 1000 new houses get built and get bought instantly it won't have an impact on house prices? I beg your pardon? That's 1000 lots of land out of circulation. In no uncertain terms, this will have an affect on local market prices, by making the remaining land more valuable.
  - slyall 3y ago
    It depends what is happening to the houses. If they are empty then prices will remain the same or increase. If they are being rented out then prices to buy should decrease since there will be less demand (since more peopel will be renting and rents will probably decrease).
dugite-code 3y ago
> The only thing that affects housing prices is the supply of houses. Well yes and no. I would argue, treating housing as an investment vehicle for both corporate and foreign interests has had the biggest influence on low end housing prices around the world. Corporate buy-ups, government backed loans and "affordability" scemes have all actually pushed pricing higher. To be clear A large percentage of corporate and foreign ownership isn't actually needed to have a large influence on pricing simply because of where they are most likely to invest. Just a couple of percent adds significant upwards pressure on the low end of the market where affordability is felt the most keenly. After all buy low sell high.
- citrin_ru 3y ago
  Real estate is a lucrative investment only because demand outpacing supply and prices expected to grow indefinitely. If supply will substantially increase it would depress prices and investors will move to jurisdictions where government helps them by restricting supply.
tonyedgecombe 3y ago
>The only thing that affects housing prices is the supply of houses. Interest rates have a massive impact on how much people have available to spend.

ditn 3y ago

gizajob 3y ago
Also Australia. Property is king.
- pewter_wiz 3y ago
  Also New Zealand. Surprise! It's a global phenomenon where governments across the world have done everything to ensure housing is the safest investment there can be. As prices go up up up those with, gain, and those without are left paying outrageous sums for rent to pay for someone else's higher and higher mortgage prices.
  - fomine3 3y ago
    Interestingly you guys successfully listed up Five Eyes.
    - pewter_wiz 3y ago
      More like 5 nations with housing crises, am I right?
      - darkclouds 3y ago
        No its a 5 eyes psychological warfare program based on Maslows Hierarchy of Needs. So shelter is an essential base layer, and by promoting home ownership, banks are now being used to mess people around if they get out of line in a deniable ops way. If you cant even afford a home, you have that psychological inferiority put on you by only being able to rent. The state is always looking to reduce costs because it can claim to be a low taxation nation, and in reality prisons cost alot, so rather than feel the long arm of the law and end up in prison with todays global technology and ability to look anyone up, causing trouble in peoples home life is now the 5 eyes modus operandi. All sorts of low level stuff going wrong designed to keep a individual busy rectifying said problem, whilst also getting flack from those around them. Its thought people will fight/work harder trying to maintain their home and their life and their families life, so all sorts of low level bad things will happen to an individual or household. Its actually quite nasty some of the things that get done to people, but its always in a deniable way, made to look like incompetence or bad luck, and thats hard to prove because of the way society works. You couldnt tell if a washing machine engineer has deliberately sabotaged your washing machine in a planned obsolesce way or not, but the military leak rumours about people and then people take it upon themselves to contribute to that harassment and intimidation. Things like reddit malicious compliance can give you a taster of some of the things people choose to engage in, but others will take it to the next level which puts peoples lives at risk. Ultimately its called Karma, but the military will pursue you around the country so you even get hassled on holiday. This is a list of some of the things thats been done to me. Stopped by the side of a busy road, engaged in conversation and casually positioned so my back is to the road before individual did something to make me step back into the road in front of moving traffic. Its a high curb so I would have fallen backwards into the road. Head (nose) shot by someone using a silenced snipered rifle whilst walking my dog around a footpath in a farm. Ex directory, countless unknown numbers, international numbered phone calls or call centres. Got a new phone line put in, and started to get the same on that number even though I'd only given the number out to one car dealership. Hassled when holidaying in various places of the UK. Post going missing. Arrow fired into garden, drones flown into garden. Someone filing tax returns for me, when I havent. 1mm diameter x 25-30mm long metal added to takeaway kebabs designed to get lodged in the throat, or do damage to the inside of you mouth. Someone release a small deer in front of the car on an unlit section of dual carriage. Person was hiding behind the armco barrier that makes the central reservation and was trying to cause me to swerve and crash. Over powered cars pulling out to over take forcing me into the verge to avoid a head on crash. NHS claiming letters lost in the post. Fake stuff added to doctors notes, creating fictional events. Courts claiming letters lost in the post in a bid to secure a conviction in my absence for speeding. Countless malware forcing me out of business. Program code being changed so my own software stops working. GCSE Exam results marked down, A-level courses getting messed around with making it untenable to study. Been drugged in social and home settings, and had things done to me. You'll literally get driven to suicide but the ambulance staff will resuscitate you, for more of the same. Reported to police, police not interested! All of this has taken place in the UK. The people behind it are in a position to deny their activity as they automatically have more authority than I would have in court. It also coerces you to get more security, like cctv fitted inside the home and office which enables greater surveillance which is what the spooks want.

coderjames 3y ago

> I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with their house price as it is in the UK, while at the same time the increase in house price that people have been conditioned to believe is the norm over the last decades is wholly unsustainable given the stagnant wages. Take a look at house price to wage ratio over the last two decades. United States. In inflation-adjusted dollars, house prices are up 118% since 1965, but income is up only 18% [1]; alternatively, house-price-to-income ratio has increased from 90x in 2012 to 135x in 2022 [2]. US Millennials have been deemed "the unluckiest generation" when it comes to home ownership in the US. [1] https://www.realestatewitch.com/house-price-to-income-ratio-2021/ https://www.realestatewitch.com/house-price-to-income-ratio-... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/591435/house-price-to-income-ratio-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/591435/house-price-to-in...

nerdponx 3y ago
AFAIK Canada is even worse than the US right now, or at least Southern Ontario.
bryanlarsen 3y ago
And in the same time period, the average house size has doubled from 1300sqft to 2600 sqft. So people are paying about twice as much for twice the house.
- tmnvix 3y ago
  But not twice as much land.
- willcipriano 3y ago
  This is a true but it's a trick. Sqft in real estate isn't purely the dimensions of the home. A 1300sqft home can become a 2600sqft by virtue of hanging some drywall in the basement. Houses aren't really twice the size they were just sold with unfinished basements new, the occupants later finished the basement (mostly just drywall and a little hvac work) and then it was sold again at its "larger" size.

throw_m239339 3y ago

> I can’t think of any other place where people’s sense of net worth is as tied up with their house price as it is in the UK, Ireland, that learned nothing from the 2007 crisis.