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IIUC, this is a labor market dynamics kind of thing? Low barrier to entry, increased short-term demand leads to a truckload (heh) of businesses starting up in

IIUC, this is a labor market dynamics kind of thing? Low barrier to entry, increased short-term demand leads to a truckload (heh) of businesses starting up in the space, all competing for "enough" drivers but spread across the too-many employers, leading to wage competition which rises to a level that is not supportable. I mean it's right there in TFA: > Operating authority grew by 45% > Truckload demand is only up about 11% > too much capacity chasing too little freight. So I'm not sure why they don't connect the dots correctly. So it's not a simple matter of "they aren't paying enough". They can't support this kind of wage inflation, because the high number of trucking companies also means they don't have pricing power. It's not even possible to sustain losses in the short term by overpaying employees, thus killing off the competition entirely, because you won't ever be able to own enough of the market to set your prices to match. If you cut salaries after you've killed off the competition, you'll lose drivers in droves and will never make up for the red ink. Those drivers will become independent operators, not desperate to come back to work for you. If I have it right then, in a very real sense, there is actually a shortage of drivers. There are not so many that there are enough willing to work for the peanuts that the companies can afford to pay. There is a low barrier to creating a trucking company, but a relatively high barrier to becoming a driver -- CDL, clean license, lifestyle acceptance. So they can't just "gig" it out in the same way that nearly anyone can become an instacart person. A winning formula might be to do convoy-style autonomous driving, at least for medium to long routes. You'd need only 1/4 of the drivers and can pay them 33% more, while at the same time having more gross margin. But didn't uber give up on that business recently? Maybe they can't defeat the unions.

PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
> Maybe they can't defeat the unions. Which unions are you thinking of?
- jiveturkey 3y ago
  teamsters
  - PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
    > Trucking salaries have decreased by as much as 50% since deregulation, according to economist Michael Belzer. Unionization rates are far lower, too, falling from about 50% of all truckers to under 20%. And by doing away with regular routes and hours, employers can take far more advantage of drivers. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-most-of-americas-2-million-long-haul-truck-drivers-arent-unionized https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-most-of-americas-2-mil...
    - jiveturkey 3y ago
      just because they only control (employ) 15% of the trucking industry (per some other source, not the article you cite) doesn't mean they don't have the power to block this kind of thing. That 15% might be enough concentration and funding to pay for the needed lobbyists. That article even says >“Even truck drivers who weren’t members of the union benefited from the relatively high wages and decent conditions expected in the industry,” Hamilton said. “All of them generally benefited from the relatively strong position that was spearheaded by the Teamsters.” This is in reference to 1964 and Jimmy Hoffa, when the teamsters were (I believe) still up and coming and AIUI were strong enough to lead "by influence" but not yet strong enough to lead "by authority". In CA, autonomous trucking was just dealt a blow: https://teamster.org/2023/07/teamsters-applaud-california-senate-transportation-committee-for-passing-autonomous-vehicle-bill-ab-316/ https://teamster.org/2023/07/teamsters-applaud-california-se... That aside, I'm not saying that unions are definitely the reason, I just suppose they might be part of it. You haven't convinced me otherwise yet. I do see lots of articles on unions opposing these efforts (of course) and unions do have lobbyists. I'm not a student of this stuff so I won't belabor it further. I guess Uber actually got out of the autonomous trucking biz awhile ago. It was Waymo that got out more recently. Maybe it's nothing to do with unions, rather exactly as they say: to focus their business.
Tangurena2 3y ago
Many drivers get swindled into the "owner operator" scheme where the trucking company owns the truck and sets the rates that the driver (who thinks that they're an owner-operator, but is really an employee) gets paid. The vehicle ends up out of warranty long before it is paid off and the folks who think that they're owner-operators find out that there is no way that they can make ends meet. They end up bankrupt and the trucking company ends up taking ownership of the rig again. While some people can and do make a living at it, many get swindled. The actual shortage is a shortage of suckers.

PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago

> Maybe they can't defeat the unions. Which unions are you thinking of?

jiveturkey 3y ago
teamsters
- PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
  > Trucking salaries have decreased by as much as 50% since deregulation, according to economist Michael Belzer. Unionization rates are far lower, too, falling from about 50% of all truckers to under 20%. And by doing away with regular routes and hours, employers can take far more advantage of drivers. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-most-of-americas-2-million-long-haul-truck-drivers-arent-unionized https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-most-of-americas-2-mil...
  - jiveturkey 3y ago
    just because they only control (employ) 15% of the trucking industry (per some other source, not the article you cite) doesn't mean they don't have the power to block this kind of thing. That 15% might be enough concentration and funding to pay for the needed lobbyists. That article even says >“Even truck drivers who weren’t members of the union benefited from the relatively high wages and decent conditions expected in the industry,” Hamilton said. “All of them generally benefited from the relatively strong position that was spearheaded by the Teamsters.” This is in reference to 1964 and Jimmy Hoffa, when the teamsters were (I believe) still up and coming and AIUI were strong enough to lead "by influence" but not yet strong enough to lead "by authority". In CA, autonomous trucking was just dealt a blow: https://teamster.org/2023/07/teamsters-applaud-california-senate-transportation-committee-for-passing-autonomous-vehicle-bill-ab-316/ https://teamster.org/2023/07/teamsters-applaud-california-se... That aside, I'm not saying that unions are definitely the reason, I just suppose they might be part of it. You haven't convinced me otherwise yet. I do see lots of articles on unions opposing these efforts (of course) and unions do have lobbyists. I'm not a student of this stuff so I won't belabor it further. I guess Uber actually got out of the autonomous trucking biz awhile ago. It was Waymo that got out more recently. Maybe it's nothing to do with unions, rather exactly as they say: to focus their business.

Tangurena2 3y ago

Many drivers get swindled into the "owner operator" scheme where the trucking company owns the truck and sets the rates that the driver (who thinks that they're an owner-operator, but is really an employee) gets paid. The vehicle ends up out of warranty long before it is paid off and the folks who think that they're owner-operators find out that there is no way that they can make ends meet. They end up bankrupt and the trucking company ends up taking ownership of the rig again. While some people can and do make a living at it, many get swindled. The actual shortage is a shortage of suckers.