Hourly estimating takes too much time and it never gives useful numbers even with various padding schemes when estimating innovative sw development. Cookie cut

Hourly estimating takes too much time and it never gives useful numbers even with various padding schemes when estimating innovative sw development. Cookie cutter web sites or repetitive work that you've done for multiple clients is easy to fix bid but I don't do that sort of work. I just say this has a complexity of 1,3,5,8 or 'too big to say'. Each feature is a 1-15 minute conversation to get this number. Then they ask well how much time is that? I then answer "We have three months of velocity data, x points per developer per week accepted into production over the last ten weeks so those five new points for that feature will take one developer 4.1 days to complete with a variance of plus or minus 1.8 days. If you need better precision, we can take a day or two to really break down the work and get the uncertainty to at best a ten percent variance.