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Random global warming thought; can anyone here believe that we'll have a technological singularity in 20 years, and be worried about global warming? I just rea

Random global warming thought; can anyone here believe that we'll have a technological singularity in 20 years, and be worried about global warming? I just realized that's why I'm not worried about it. I.e. technology will probably save us. Am I too optimistic?

gaius 18y ago
20 years?! We can't even make an AI as smart as an ant yet.
- tjpick 18y ago
  needn't be AI. What about biotech etc?
  - gaius 18y ago
    That's not what Singulatarians believe.
- ibsulon 18y ago
  Kurzweil suggests that these technological improvements happen on an exponential scale -- that the gap from 0 to ant is greater than from ant to human.
  - yters 18y ago
    I like basing my life on theories that are not complete speculation.
- Retric 18y ago
  We have AI smarter than a single ant and we know enough about ant brains to be able to tell. One of the branches of AI research focuses on modeling neurons and building systems which demonstrate identical behaviors to tapeworms or ant's etc. The next step seems to be modeling rat brains, but the gap between human and rat is a lot smaller than the gap between rat and ant.
jsmcgd 18y ago
When the stakes are this big, I would advise hedging your bets.
DaniFong 18y ago
Yes. Think of the probability you'd need to have before you could 'stop worrying about things.' You have to think that it were 99% likely that 'the singularity' would show up in 20, or 50 years!
moxy 18y ago
The singularity is always 20 years ahead.
ars 18y ago
This is no singulatiry. CPU speeds have hit a wall, the exponential growth of CPU speed is dead. The only thing left is massively parallel, but we can do that now, no need to wait, and we still don't have a singularity.
- slackerIII 18y ago
  Moore's law is most interesting in terms of cost these days, not clock speed. The cost per cycle is still dropping.
debt 18y ago
If you believe in miracles then, yes, you're too optimistic. If we can magically create software that can create software that is more intelligent than humans, then the singularity is nigh. The solution to global warming will most likely be a series of clever "hacks" such as electric cars, recycling, carban taxes, turning off the lights when you leave a room, etc. Most of all changing politicians to increase the speed of change. There doesn't seem to be a giant off switch that can wipe out global warming.
- mynameishere 18y ago
  There doesn't seem to be a giant off switch that can wipe out global warming. There is. All you have to do is bury trees in giant holes. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080513101652.htm http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080513101652.ht... I thought of this, did 15 seconds of research to see if any studies had been done, and it's pretty clear that, not only is it practical, it would be fairly cheap. Doesn't matter. The whole point of "global warming" is the same as every other leftist movement, control over the economy.
  - debt 18y ago
    This is an interesting concept. I'm curious how much of it is offset by the large earth movers required for biomass burial. Also, the land required to plant AND bury all the biomass towards this end would have to be roughly the size of North America. Albeit creative, this does not seem like the definitive solution to global warming unless you have some serious political muscle.
  - clickheel 18y ago
    In all conscience, mynameishere, you really believe that that 'point' of "global warming" is a leftist conspiracy to gain control over the economy? It's impossible for me to dissuade you of your logical fallacy in the confines of this text entry box, but allow me to extend the same promise I made to a rabid Ron Paul supporter who was convinced Ron was going to win the 2008 US election a year and a half ago, I'll be back to say 'I told you so'. However, I'll get no satisfaction in rubbing your nose in the error of your comment by saying "I told you so" when climate change is seriously fucking shit up. Rather, I'll feel the same disappointment I feel now. You just can't inject perspective into people via a couple of lines of forum comment.
clickheel 18y ago
Hi. Yes this is my first comment. Shoot me down. Do you, in all seriousness, refer to global average mean temperature rises that will invariably result in severe climate instability, innocuously as "global warming"? Secondly, do you seriously believe that an idealistic exponential growth in computing power will lead to the 'technological singularity' in some sort of vaccuum? You're having a laugh. Oh, did I say hi?

gaius 18y ago

20 years?! We can't even make an AI as smart as an ant yet.

tjpick 18y ago
needn't be AI. What about biotech etc?
- gaius 18y ago
  That's not what Singulatarians believe.
ibsulon 18y ago
Kurzweil suggests that these technological improvements happen on an exponential scale -- that the gap from 0 to ant is greater than from ant to human.
- yters 18y ago
  I like basing my life on theories that are not complete speculation.
Retric 18y ago
We have AI smarter than a single ant and we know enough about ant brains to be able to tell. One of the branches of AI research focuses on modeling neurons and building systems which demonstrate identical behaviors to tapeworms or ant's etc. The next step seems to be modeling rat brains, but the gap between human and rat is a lot smaller than the gap between rat and ant.

jsmcgd 18y ago

When the stakes are this big, I would advise hedging your bets.

DaniFong 18y ago

Yes. Think of the probability you'd need to have before you could 'stop worrying about things.' You have to think that it were 99% likely that 'the singularity' would show up in 20, or 50 years!

moxy 18y ago

The singularity is always 20 years ahead.

ars 18y ago

This is no singulatiry. CPU speeds have hit a wall, the exponential growth of CPU speed is dead. The only thing left is massively parallel, but we can do that now, no need to wait, and we still don't have a singularity.

slackerIII 18y ago
Moore's law is most interesting in terms of cost these days, not clock speed. The cost per cycle is still dropping.

debt 18y ago

If you believe in miracles then, yes, you're too optimistic. If we can magically create software that can create software that is more intelligent than humans, then the singularity is nigh. The solution to global warming will most likely be a series of clever "hacks" such as electric cars, recycling, carban taxes, turning off the lights when you leave a room, etc. Most of all changing politicians to increase the speed of change. There doesn't seem to be a giant off switch that can wipe out global warming.

mynameishere 18y ago
There doesn't seem to be a giant off switch that can wipe out global warming. There is. All you have to do is bury trees in giant holes. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080513101652.htm http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080513101652.ht... I thought of this, did 15 seconds of research to see if any studies had been done, and it's pretty clear that, not only is it practical, it would be fairly cheap. Doesn't matter. The whole point of "global warming" is the same as every other leftist movement, control over the economy.
- debt 18y ago
  This is an interesting concept. I'm curious how much of it is offset by the large earth movers required for biomass burial. Also, the land required to plant AND bury all the biomass towards this end would have to be roughly the size of North America. Albeit creative, this does not seem like the definitive solution to global warming unless you have some serious political muscle.
- clickheel 18y ago
  In all conscience, mynameishere, you really believe that that 'point' of "global warming" is a leftist conspiracy to gain control over the economy? It's impossible for me to dissuade you of your logical fallacy in the confines of this text entry box, but allow me to extend the same promise I made to a rabid Ron Paul supporter who was convinced Ron was going to win the 2008 US election a year and a half ago, I'll be back to say 'I told you so'. However, I'll get no satisfaction in rubbing your nose in the error of your comment by saying "I told you so" when climate change is seriously fucking shit up. Rather, I'll feel the same disappointment I feel now. You just can't inject perspective into people via a couple of lines of forum comment.

clickheel 18y ago

Hi. Yes this is my first comment. Shoot me down. Do you, in all seriousness, refer to global average mean temperature rises that will invariably result in severe climate instability, innocuously as "global warming"? Secondly, do you seriously believe that an idealistic exponential growth in computing power will lead to the 'technological singularity' in some sort of vaccuum? You're having a laugh. Oh, did I say hi?