I think what you're describing is a sort of ensemble. I agree sometimes "conspiratorial" thinking is right, as in the invasion of Ukraine, or Hitler. Then the d

I think what you're describing is a sort of ensemble. I agree sometimes "conspiratorial" thinking is right, as in the invasion of Ukraine, or Hitler. Then the difficult part becomes how to weight the different world views in this particular time in history. But I agree at the very least you need to be able to simulate the thinking of ideologues in order to understand their thinking and actions. The invasion of Ukraine is a very interesting example where people underestimated how nefarious Putin really was, but if you read his writings on Ukraine, and do a bayesian update after Georgia and Crimea/Donbas the invasion shouldn't have been all that surprising. At least we should have assigned something like 10-15% chance.