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Horace is one of the better thinkers regarding Apple’s business. He consistently ranks relatively high amongst the independent analysts at predicting Apple’s qu

Horace is one of the better thinkers regarding Apple’s business. He consistently ranks relatively high amongst the independent analysts at predicting Apple’s quarterly earnings, although to be honest I don’t put much stock in that. He did a lot of analysis to determine how many active devices Apple had in the world before Apple even started reporting those figures. He was one of the only analysts who understood Apple’s position and scale, as well as some of the internal culture that helped explain a lot of their seemingly abstruse decision making. Recently he got really focused on “micro-mobility” (ie, Bird/Lime scooters, etc) which hasn’t really been as earthshaking as he predicted, but he’s been mostly proven right about Apple. It’s unreal to see the scope of Tim Cook’s Apple (or the iPhone Apple if you prefer).

brailsafe 3y ago
> Recently he got really focused on “micro-mobility” (ie, Bird/Lime scooters, etc) which hasn’t really been as earthshaking as he predicted, but he’s been mostly proven right about Apple. What was his prediction? Seems like that's only increasing in popularity as people realize cars are like the most absurdly wasteful, lazy, and/or excessive methods of transportation imaginable for most daily activities, but it would depend on where you are and what your real requirements are.
- oflannabhra 3y ago
  I think he is mostly correct that small, cheap, easy transportation can revolutionize urban centers in a variety of ways. I think he has been relatively bullish on the companies, and they haven’t exactly panned out, from a business perspective.
  - brailsafe 3y ago
    Ah, that makes sense. They did have a moment, but seem to have fizzled out.
    - mensetmanusman 3y ago
      It’s happening, but the form is being hidden behind e-bikes: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/10/2643779/0/en/Revolutionizing-Transportation-The-Micro-Mobility-Market-Takes-Off.html https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/10/264377...
- judge2020 3y ago
  They're usually abandoned on the streets of Atlanta.
mschuster91 3y ago
> Recently he got really focused on “micro-mobility” (ie, Bird/Lime scooters, etc) which hasn’t really been as earthshaking as he predicted Mostly because of antisocial behavior of all sorts: people thinking that scooters were similar to bikes so you could drive them while wasted, random youth groups throwing them off of bridges, into waterways or otherwise destroying them "for the lulz", inconsiderate dumb fucks parking their scooters right where they stepped off, or companies that plastered scooters, bikes and cars over entire cities without coordinating with any authority beforehand. All of that led to a massive amount of public resentment and subsequent regulation that impeded usage (e.g. no-park-here zones, speed limits during the night and sobriety tests to reduce the risk for drunkards, requirements to force people to submit parking photos), and on top of that come the sometimes ridiculous "unlock fees" or absurd pricing of 20-30 ct/min or more. Public transport tickets cost less than that.
- nrp 3y ago
  We’re drifting away from the original topic, but I suspect it has less to do with antisocial behavior and more to do with saturating the intersection of people interested in riding on scooters and places where scooter riding is a plausible mode of transportation. Horace (and the various VC firms that dumped money on e-scooter companies) probably assumed that intersection had more people in it than seems to be playing out in reality.
  - bombcar 3y ago
    Anyone interested in riding a scooter “well” just bought their own. Sure, maybe they rented for a bit to see what it was like, but once you agree it’s a good option it is not insanely expensive (or heavy) to buy your own.
- lstamour 3y ago
  Part of this is the companies themselves to blame: Scooter and bike share companies routinely parked (and still park) bikes and scooters directly in the path of pedestrians because they know that the more visible their devices are, the more likely someone will use them. Additionally, as you point out the pricing these companies charge started out very low but have escalated quickly. But this isn't always true - micromobility can replace ownership if done right: Companies with presumably less VC funding, such as Donkey Republic or Forest have different pricing models that are still affordable. In Donkey Republic's case, you can sometimes sign up for a $10/month subscription with minimum three months (equivalent in local currency) where you can then reserve a bike and take it home with you or park it near your house but blocked from others renting it. You pay a discounted fee to ride it, and an even smaller fee to reserve it. Cities are also to blame: Better than no-parking-zones are cities like Paris where they created parking spaces specifically for bikes and scooters. You rarely see problems in these cities. Some places require designated parking areas without making the space in the roads for them - those are much more problematic because the parking spaces fill and spill over onto where people would prefer to walk or drive. But users are indeed part of the problem: The number of times I've seen unsafe drivers of any vehicle, or two people on one scooter, or scooters or bikes going the wrong way down a bike lane... the problems are actually endless. But the problems aren't always with scooters or e-bikes themselves. Sometimes it's an ecosystem problem, and sometimes the rental companies are too short-sighted. And regulation isn't always bad: As a scooter rider myself, I look forward to the day when the 2027 E.U. law requiring removable batteries might take effect in the private scooter market. It's silly that so many high end scooter brands aren't making batteries removable simply because they don't want to have to deal with shipping batteries and user-replaceable parts and the inherent design costs of a removable battery.
galenmarchetti 3y ago
I always wondered what would have happened to Bird/Lime if COVID hadn't hit. I love those things

brailsafe 3y ago

> Recently he got really focused on “micro-mobility” (ie, Bird/Lime scooters, etc) which hasn’t really been as earthshaking as he predicted, but he’s been mostly proven right about Apple. What was his prediction? Seems like that's only increasing in popularity as people realize cars are like the most absurdly wasteful, lazy, and/or excessive methods of transportation imaginable for most daily activities, but it would depend on where you are and what your real requirements are.

oflannabhra 3y ago
I think he is mostly correct that small, cheap, easy transportation can revolutionize urban centers in a variety of ways. I think he has been relatively bullish on the companies, and they haven’t exactly panned out, from a business perspective.
- brailsafe 3y ago
  Ah, that makes sense. They did have a moment, but seem to have fizzled out.
  - mensetmanusman 3y ago
    It’s happening, but the form is being hidden behind e-bikes: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/10/2643779/0/en/Revolutionizing-Transportation-The-Micro-Mobility-Market-Takes-Off.html https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/10/264377...
judge2020 3y ago
They're usually abandoned on the streets of Atlanta.

mschuster91 3y ago

> Recently he got really focused on “micro-mobility” (ie, Bird/Lime scooters, etc) which hasn’t really been as earthshaking as he predicted Mostly because of antisocial behavior of all sorts: people thinking that scooters were similar to bikes so you could drive them while wasted, random youth groups throwing them off of bridges, into waterways or otherwise destroying them "for the lulz", inconsiderate dumb fucks parking their scooters right where they stepped off, or companies that plastered scooters, bikes and cars over entire cities without coordinating with any authority beforehand. All of that led to a massive amount of public resentment and subsequent regulation that impeded usage (e.g. no-park-here zones, speed limits during the night and sobriety tests to reduce the risk for drunkards, requirements to force people to submit parking photos), and on top of that come the sometimes ridiculous "unlock fees" or absurd pricing of 20-30 ct/min or more. Public transport tickets cost less than that.

nrp 3y ago
We’re drifting away from the original topic, but I suspect it has less to do with antisocial behavior and more to do with saturating the intersection of people interested in riding on scooters and places where scooter riding is a plausible mode of transportation. Horace (and the various VC firms that dumped money on e-scooter companies) probably assumed that intersection had more people in it than seems to be playing out in reality.
- bombcar 3y ago
  Anyone interested in riding a scooter “well” just bought their own. Sure, maybe they rented for a bit to see what it was like, but once you agree it’s a good option it is not insanely expensive (or heavy) to buy your own.
lstamour 3y ago
Part of this is the companies themselves to blame: Scooter and bike share companies routinely parked (and still park) bikes and scooters directly in the path of pedestrians because they know that the more visible their devices are, the more likely someone will use them. Additionally, as you point out the pricing these companies charge started out very low but have escalated quickly. But this isn't always true - micromobility can replace ownership if done right: Companies with presumably less VC funding, such as Donkey Republic or Forest have different pricing models that are still affordable. In Donkey Republic's case, you can sometimes sign up for a $10/month subscription with minimum three months (equivalent in local currency) where you can then reserve a bike and take it home with you or park it near your house but blocked from others renting it. You pay a discounted fee to ride it, and an even smaller fee to reserve it. Cities are also to blame: Better than no-parking-zones are cities like Paris where they created parking spaces specifically for bikes and scooters. You rarely see problems in these cities. Some places require designated parking areas without making the space in the roads for them - those are much more problematic because the parking spaces fill and spill over onto where people would prefer to walk or drive. But users are indeed part of the problem: The number of times I've seen unsafe drivers of any vehicle, or two people on one scooter, or scooters or bikes going the wrong way down a bike lane... the problems are actually endless. But the problems aren't always with scooters or e-bikes themselves. Sometimes it's an ecosystem problem, and sometimes the rental companies are too short-sighted. And regulation isn't always bad: As a scooter rider myself, I look forward to the day when the 2027 E.U. law requiring removable batteries might take effect in the private scooter market. It's silly that so many high end scooter brands aren't making batteries removable simply because they don't want to have to deal with shipping batteries and user-replaceable parts and the inherent design costs of a removable battery.

galenmarchetti 3y ago

I always wondered what would have happened to Bird/Lime if COVID hadn't hit. I love those things