4 ms·
Consider that the market is no longer the 90%. Since real wages have not risen much since ~1980 [1], most of the consumers have no response when rates suddenly
by araes 3y ago
Consider that the market is no longer the 90%. Since real wages have not risen much since ~1980 [1], most of the consumers have no response when rates suddenly increase. Houses are simply not purchasable.
Case study: Vancouver, BC, Canada (I looked in May 2023). House prices: ~$1.1M. Loan rate: ~5%. Month payment: $5900. Yearly: $71k. Avg Salary: 60k (before tax). Result: No normal worker can afford the loan, and the bank won't give you the loan.
When interest rates sharply rise, suddenly all loans to normal humans based on existing prices look like failure, because there is no way to make the payments. "I'll give you a loan, so you can miss payments every month, owe me more every year, and then default. No." if( money_earned < monthly_payment) then { no_loan }
Also, wealthy need somewhere to park their money. A bunch of really wealth folks made a bunch of enormous profits last year. [2] Frankly, if you're in the $10^9 club, there's not much to buy. Personal air craft carrier? Your own airforce? Build your own town? [3] Reconstruct all of Iraq? [4]
[1] https://files.epi.org/2013/ib388-figurea.jpg https://files.epi.org/2013/ib388-figurea.jpg
[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/big-oil-doubles-profits-blockbuster-2022-2023-02-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/big-oil-doubles-prof...
[3] https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4184337-california-forever-company-behind-land-purchases-near-travis-air-force-base-launches-website-details-plans/ https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4184337-california-...
[4] https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=reconstruction+budget+for+iraq https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=reconst...
- zer0tonin 3y ago> Frankly, if you're in the $10^9 club, there's not much to buy This is nonsense. The US treasury market is $10^13, it will have no issue accommodating a few buy orders from the $10^9 club
- red-iron-pine 3y agoVancouver is cheating; it's one of the most expensive cities in N. America. Not Canada -- all of North America. https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/local-news/vancouver-ranks-3rd-most-expensive-city-in-north-america-5490661 https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/local-news/vancouver-rank... Vancouver, especially, has not seen salary gains in keeping up with the housing market. It is explicitly, unambiguously, huge amounts of foreign money. The housing prices in greater YVR correlate to foreign issues in China like Xi's crackdowns, or MBS' takeover in Saudi. This is true for Greater Toronto as well, but very much less so over the rest of Canada.