2 ms·
> Here's how we can tell if a speculative bubble is a bubble: everyone says it isn't a bubble It's hard to argue with this ironclad circular logic.
by nerdbert 3y ago
> Here's how we can tell if a speculative bubble is a bubble: everyone says it isn't a bubble
It's hard to argue with this ironclad circular logic.
- scoofy 3y agoI understand your point, and it is a heuristic at best, but I'm having more and more trouble listening to the ever-growing gymnastics explaining how prices will not come down even though mortgage rates have gone from 2.75% to 7+% in the last year-and-a-half. I have yet to hear a convincing argument beyond "people will just stop selling their homes, forever," which is obvious nonsense. Once the adjustable-rate mortgages reset in a year-or-five, many, many folks will be forced to sell. Prices only come down when people are forced to sell at a loss.
- pseudo0 3y agoDecreasing in real value, sure, but people hate the idea of a nominal loss when it comes to selling their house. And with inflation still higher than usual, it's entirely possible to have a 15-25% loss over five years in real terms while still looking like a wash on paper. That seems like a more likely scenario than an outright crash right now.