3 ms·

I'm very interested in the topic but skeptical of sweeping claims like this. What is the most definitive evidence (actual data plus analysis by economists) tha

I'm very interested in the topic but skeptical of sweeping claims like this. What is the most definitive evidence (actual data plus analysis by economists) that you can point me to that proves this is true?

jonhohle 3y ago
It’s not true (at least not for the past 20 years nationwide). New housing has grown faster than population growth. In 2000 there were 113 units per capita vs 145 per capita today.[0] The average number of people per household hasn’t changed significantly since then, so there is technically 30% more housing available in the US than 20 years ago. Not all of that housing is where people want it, investors are collecting properties like Pokémon, the vast majority of people can only afford a house half the price they could before interests rates rose, and those with mortgages are stuck with their low rates and little incentive to move (or at least sell). So it’s not the lack of units that’s the issue, but a market that (surprise!) favors the wealthy and entrenched. If you had cash, houses could be found at absurdly low prices 12 years ago. But as always, the climate favored the wealthy whose credit score wasn’t wrecked, who had excess capital to deploy, and were willing to tie it up in real estate for 5-10 years as the market recovered. 0 - https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1686999658483314688 https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1686999658483314688
Xorakios 3y ago
There is a deficit of around 40 million units in the US. Desired household sizes keep decreasing due to ongoing drops in marriage and childbearing rates, which increases housing units out of historical proportions. This is compounded by the desire for vacation homes and the continuing opposition to increased housing in privileged areas such as the coastal cities. Here's a fun graph from the US Census Bureau: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/54683a71e4b0768e168af8a5/1416118570700-0AL9F1GK5P4YTIQFYAPP/housing-2010-10-20-new-home-construction-sa-iacono.jpg?content-type=image%2Fjpeg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/54683a71e4b0768e1...
- iamdamian 3y ago
  How is 'deficit' measured, and what source are you using?

jonhohle 3y ago

It’s not true (at least not for the past 20 years nationwide). New housing has grown faster than population growth. In 2000 there were 113 units per capita vs 145 per capita today.[0] The average number of people per household hasn’t changed significantly since then, so there is technically 30% more housing available in the US than 20 years ago. Not all of that housing is where people want it, investors are collecting properties like Pokémon, the vast majority of people can only afford a house half the price they could before interests rates rose, and those with mortgages are stuck with their low rates and little incentive to move (or at least sell). So it’s not the lack of units that’s the issue, but a market that (surprise!) favors the wealthy and entrenched. If you had cash, houses could be found at absurdly low prices 12 years ago. But as always, the climate favored the wealthy whose credit score wasn’t wrecked, who had excess capital to deploy, and were willing to tie it up in real estate for 5-10 years as the market recovered. 0 - https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1686999658483314688 https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1686999658483314688

Xorakios 3y ago

There is a deficit of around 40 million units in the US. Desired household sizes keep decreasing due to ongoing drops in marriage and childbearing rates, which increases housing units out of historical proportions. This is compounded by the desire for vacation homes and the continuing opposition to increased housing in privileged areas such as the coastal cities. Here's a fun graph from the US Census Bureau: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/54683a71e4b0768e168af8a5/1416118570700-0AL9F1GK5P4YTIQFYAPP/housing-2010-10-20-new-home-construction-sa-iacono.jpg?content-type=image%2Fjpeg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/54683a71e4b0768e1...

iamdamian 3y ago
How is 'deficit' measured, and what source are you using?