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> People simply choose not to sell their houses; as most people who own one or more homes have that option, or Except those who feel that prices will go down f

> People simply choose not to sell their houses; as most people who own one or more homes have that option, or Except those who feel that prices will go down further and don't want to be left holding the bag. It's a classic prisoner's dilemma. > The 64% of people buy the homes selling for cheap, and resell for a profit With the current interests rates, this is straight up magical thinking.

Bukhmanizer 3y ago
> Except those who feel that prices will go down further and don't want to be left holding the bag. It's a classic prisoner's dilemma. It’s not. The current mantra is that if prices go down, on a timescale of like 10-20 years they will eventually go back up. This is the way things have gone for at least the last century. AirBnB can go bankrupt tomorrow and wit will do exactly nothing to dispel this thought. > With the current interests rates, this is straight up magical thinking. Do you think that matters even the slightest bit? A nontrivial proportion of homeowners could afford to buy second homes outright at this point.
- zer0tonin 3y ago
  > It’s not. The current mantra is that if prices go down, on a timescale of like 10-20 years they will eventually go back up. This is the way things have gone for at least the last century. AirBnB can go bankrupt tomorrow and wit will do exactly nothing to dispel this thought. If you are a hedge fund manager, and are considering pulling your money from a reit or not, I can assure you the "20 years" timeline is not anything you care about. > Do you think that matters even the slightest bit? A nontrivial proportion of homeowners could afford to buy second homes outright at this point. Doesn't mean they will be wanting to act as the greater fool with their savings.
- itsoktocry 3y ago
  You're going to sit on a distressed asset for 20 years hoping it recovers? Do you realize how financially debilitating that is?
  - Bukhmanizer 3y ago
    > You're going to sit on a distressed asset for 20 years hoping it recovers? Do you realize how financially debilitating that is? I’m saying they have the financial ability to do so if necessary. Approximately no one actually believes that the housing market is going to undergo a >20 year downturn because of AirBnB. The trillion dollar question is what will actually make people believe the market is going to turn over for the long term. Because that’s literally the only way the markets are going to return to normalcy. And it’s not going to be because of some hotel app.

Bukhmanizer 3y ago

> Except those who feel that prices will go down further and don't want to be left holding the bag. It's a classic prisoner's dilemma. It’s not. The current mantra is that if prices go down, on a timescale of like 10-20 years they will eventually go back up. This is the way things have gone for at least the last century. AirBnB can go bankrupt tomorrow and wit will do exactly nothing to dispel this thought. > With the current interests rates, this is straight up magical thinking. Do you think that matters even the slightest bit? A nontrivial proportion of homeowners could afford to buy second homes outright at this point.

zer0tonin 3y ago
> It’s not. The current mantra is that if prices go down, on a timescale of like 10-20 years they will eventually go back up. This is the way things have gone for at least the last century. AirBnB can go bankrupt tomorrow and wit will do exactly nothing to dispel this thought. If you are a hedge fund manager, and are considering pulling your money from a reit or not, I can assure you the "20 years" timeline is not anything you care about. > Do you think that matters even the slightest bit? A nontrivial proportion of homeowners could afford to buy second homes outright at this point. Doesn't mean they will be wanting to act as the greater fool with their savings.
itsoktocry 3y ago
You're going to sit on a distressed asset for 20 years hoping it recovers? Do you realize how financially debilitating that is?
- Bukhmanizer 3y ago
  > You're going to sit on a distressed asset for 20 years hoping it recovers? Do you realize how financially debilitating that is? I’m saying they have the financial ability to do so if necessary. Approximately no one actually believes that the housing market is going to undergo a >20 year downturn because of AirBnB. The trillion dollar question is what will actually make people believe the market is going to turn over for the long term. Because that’s literally the only way the markets are going to return to normalcy. And it’s not going to be because of some hotel app.