4 ms·

Not surprised WaPo leaves out relevant non-climate reasons that also contribute.

cpncrunch 3y ago
And cherry picks data starting at 2013. I was curious about pre 2013 and it seems i was right to be skeptical. The 2013 to 2016 period just had unusually low losses. https://www.statista.com/statistics/428870/insured-property-losses-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/428870/insured-property-...
- gruez 3y ago
  >And cherry picks data starting at 2013. In their defense 10 years is a nice round number. Also, the text surrounding the chart says >“There’s no place to hide from these severe natural disasters,” said David Sampson, president of the American Property Casualty Insurance Association. “They’re happening all over the country and so insurers are having to relook at their risk concentration.” >That trend is too costly, insurers contend, and necessitates rewriting policies or eliminating coverages in growing geographic areas. If change the window from 10 years to 15 or 20 years, the general impression is still the same: insurance losses are trending up, and the last few years are consistently high (as opposed to having one or two years of high payouts followed by periods of low payouts).
  - cpncrunch 3y ago
    Except, that's now how random systems work: you don't get one high value, then some low values, then a value value. Try flipping a coin many times: if you do it enough times, you'll get 5 heads in a row due to chance. The same is true for random weather events. If you look at this graph going back further, you'll see high losses in previous years: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Olivier-Mahul/publication/23550346/figure/fig1/AS:310258397401088@1450982774100/Economic-Losses-and-Insured-Losses-due-to-Natural-Disasters.png https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Olivier-Mahul/publicati... Certainly this graph is trending higher from the 1970s, but is that due to more real estate with a higher valuation? And how much insurance premiums were collected?
jungturk 3y ago
The article isn't a WaPo assessment of the causes of the increases - it's relaying statements and changes made by participating insurance carriers. "At least five large U.S. property insurers...have told regulators that extreme weather patterns caused by climate change have led them to stop writing coverages in some regions."

And cherry picks data starting at 2013. I was curious about pre 2013 and it seems i was right to be skeptical. The 2013 to 2016 period just had unusually low losses. https://www.statista.com/statistics/428870/insured-property-losses-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/428870/insured-property-...

gruez 3y ago
>And cherry picks data starting at 2013. In their defense 10 years is a nice round number. Also, the text surrounding the chart says >“There’s no place to hide from these severe natural disasters,” said David Sampson, president of the American Property Casualty Insurance Association. “They’re happening all over the country and so insurers are having to relook at their risk concentration.” >That trend is too costly, insurers contend, and necessitates rewriting policies or eliminating coverages in growing geographic areas. If change the window from 10 years to 15 or 20 years, the general impression is still the same: insurance losses are trending up, and the last few years are consistently high (as opposed to having one or two years of high payouts followed by periods of low payouts).
- cpncrunch 3y ago
  Except, that's now how random systems work: you don't get one high value, then some low values, then a value value. Try flipping a coin many times: if you do it enough times, you'll get 5 heads in a row due to chance. The same is true for random weather events. If you look at this graph going back further, you'll see high losses in previous years: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Olivier-Mahul/publication/23550346/figure/fig1/AS:310258397401088@1450982774100/Economic-Losses-and-Insured-Losses-due-to-Natural-Disasters.png https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Olivier-Mahul/publicati... Certainly this graph is trending higher from the 1970s, but is that due to more real estate with a higher valuation? And how much insurance premiums were collected?

jungturk 3y ago

The article isn't a WaPo assessment of the causes of the increases - it's relaying statements and changes made by participating insurance carriers. "At least five large U.S. property insurers...have told regulators that extreme weather patterns caused by climate change have led them to stop writing coverages in some regions."