4 ms·

Any sort of straight line extrapolation is useless. Look at the US energy consumed per capita, flat or declining for the last 50 years. Other parts of the world

Any sort of straight line extrapolation is useless. Look at the US energy consumed per capita, flat or declining for the last 50 years. Other parts of the world will follow as they develop. Likely the same for population growth. http://insideenergy.org/wp-content/uploads//2017/01/historical-energy-consumption-large.jpg http://insideenergy.org/wp-content/uploads//2017/01/historic... from: https://insideenergy.org/2017/01/12/energy-explained/ https://insideenergy.org/2017/01/12/energy-explained/

eldaisfish 3y ago
the rest of the world still has to catch up to these levels. Granted, they won't get to the absurd wastage levels of north america but they will continue to consume more energy. Just looking at the energy levels in one country doesn't tell you much.
- giantrobot 3y ago
  Developing countries will increase their energy usage but have the benefit of buying things from developed countries. As we've seen developing countries today have been able to jump right to modern technology for infrastructure. They didn't need to build massive lines of analog telecommunications, they just jumped right to cellular and satellite technology. They can jump right to solar and other renewables as they electrify. They can skip incandescent lighting and go right to LEDs.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - wmf 3y ago
    This doesn't help much on the demand side but it will help if they go straight to clean energy.
    - giantrobot 3y ago
      The availability modern high tech items does help on the demand side. With LED lights a house, office, or school can be lit for a few tens of watts. Modern climate control can heat and cool buildings more efficiently than 40 years ago. Jumping to 3-5G cellular gets telecom for a fraction of the energy or resource investment of wired telecom while still providing high performance. Modern medicine reduces infant and maternal mortality and leads to lower birth rates.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
Onavo 3y ago
It flattened in the midst of manufacturing outsourcing and globalization. Bring back the heavy industries and it would look much more different.
- mikeyouse 3y ago
  Nope. Common belief but not true: https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 More specifically: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/prod-cons-co2-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/prod-cons-co2-per-capita
littlestymaar 3y ago
> Look at the US energy consumed per capita, flat or declining for the last 50 years. This doesn't account for all the “imported energy” that comes when you outsource your industrial production abroad. Granted even then the energy consumption doesn't increase exponentially anymore, but it's not flat either.
- JamisonM 3y ago
  Do you have some data to back up this assertion? For me what I see in the numbers is that Chinese domestic quality of living improvements correlate better with increases in energy consumption than does US imports (or Chinese exports). What is also interesting is that China's "energy intensity" - energy used per unit of GDP is pretty flat, if wealthier nations were exporting energy demand via imports I would expect that number to be climbing. I am at a bit of a loss as to how to determine exactly what is going on TBH.
  - littlestymaar 3y ago
    You can find data related to this phenomenon when searching for “imported emissions”. But then it's only going to be related to the CO2 emissions, not energy, and the measure appears to vary a lot depending on the methodology (from a quick search, France is estimated to import between 117 and 750Mt of CO2 a year, quite a large error margin…). > if wealthier nations were exporting energy demand via imports I would expect that number to be climbing Why? These exports from China generates GDP in China so it just grow the energy consumption as well as the Chinese GDP, making the ratio flat.
    - JamisonM 3y ago
      > France is estimated to import between 117 and 750Mt of CO2 a year, quite a large error margin… I don't know, if your basis for your opinion is that you googled it and you got some very wide ranging and contradictory results then that seems like a poor foundation to start with. > Why? These exports from China generates GDP in China so it just grow the energy consumption as well as the Chinese GDP, making the ratio flat. If the ratio is flat then there isn't really much of an export of energy effect in my view. If you are exports were dominated specifically by the use of energy (over say human capital or laxer pollution standards) that intensity would rise because it would be the source of the economic advantage. I.e. if domestic consumption trade 1 unit of energy for one unit of growth but exports trades 2 units of energy for one unit of growth intensity will rise if exports dominate the energy mix. That does not seem to be the case. A huge proportion of US imports seem to be based on "assembly" from what I can tell, the dominant categories from China are electrical/electronic goods and industrial machines - most of the stuff is the assembling of US & EU (and Taiwan for semiconductor reasons) made parts.. the energy mix of the import-export dynamic seems like it needs a lot of analysis - I would like something authoritative that shows an attempt at an analysis, I can't seem to find it.

eldaisfish 3y ago

the rest of the world still has to catch up to these levels. Granted, they won't get to the absurd wastage levels of north america but they will continue to consume more energy. Just looking at the energy levels in one country doesn't tell you much.

giantrobot 3y ago
Developing countries will increase their energy usage but have the benefit of buying things from developed countries. As we've seen developing countries today have been able to jump right to modern technology for infrastructure. They didn't need to build massive lines of analog telecommunications, they just jumped right to cellular and satellite technology. They can jump right to solar and other renewables as they electrify. They can skip incandescent lighting and go right to LEDs.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- wmf 3y ago
  This doesn't help much on the demand side but it will help if they go straight to clean energy.
  - giantrobot 3y ago
    The availability modern high tech items does help on the demand side. With LED lights a house, office, or school can be lit for a few tens of watts. Modern climate control can heat and cool buildings more efficiently than 40 years ago. Jumping to 3-5G cellular gets telecom for a fraction of the energy or resource investment of wired telecom while still providing high performance. Modern medicine reduces infant and maternal mortality and leads to lower birth rates.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]

Onavo 3y ago

It flattened in the midst of manufacturing outsourcing and globalization. Bring back the heavy industries and it would look much more different.

mikeyouse 3y ago
Nope. Common belief but not true: https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 More specifically: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/prod-cons-co2-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/prod-cons-co2-per-capita

littlestymaar 3y ago

> Look at the US energy consumed per capita, flat or declining for the last 50 years. This doesn't account for all the “imported energy” that comes when you outsource your industrial production abroad. Granted even then the energy consumption doesn't increase exponentially anymore, but it's not flat either.

JamisonM 3y ago
Do you have some data to back up this assertion? For me what I see in the numbers is that Chinese domestic quality of living improvements correlate better with increases in energy consumption than does US imports (or Chinese exports). What is also interesting is that China's "energy intensity" - energy used per unit of GDP is pretty flat, if wealthier nations were exporting energy demand via imports I would expect that number to be climbing. I am at a bit of a loss as to how to determine exactly what is going on TBH.
- littlestymaar 3y ago
  You can find data related to this phenomenon when searching for “imported emissions”. But then it's only going to be related to the CO2 emissions, not energy, and the measure appears to vary a lot depending on the methodology (from a quick search, France is estimated to import between 117 and 750Mt of CO2 a year, quite a large error margin…). > if wealthier nations were exporting energy demand via imports I would expect that number to be climbing Why? These exports from China generates GDP in China so it just grow the energy consumption as well as the Chinese GDP, making the ratio flat.
  - JamisonM 3y ago
    > France is estimated to import between 117 and 750Mt of CO2 a year, quite a large error margin… I don't know, if your basis for your opinion is that you googled it and you got some very wide ranging and contradictory results then that seems like a poor foundation to start with. > Why? These exports from China generates GDP in China so it just grow the energy consumption as well as the Chinese GDP, making the ratio flat. If the ratio is flat then there isn't really much of an export of energy effect in my view. If you are exports were dominated specifically by the use of energy (over say human capital or laxer pollution standards) that intensity would rise because it would be the source of the economic advantage. I.e. if domestic consumption trade 1 unit of energy for one unit of growth but exports trades 2 units of energy for one unit of growth intensity will rise if exports dominate the energy mix. That does not seem to be the case. A huge proportion of US imports seem to be based on "assembly" from what I can tell, the dominant categories from China are electrical/electronic goods and industrial machines - most of the stuff is the assembling of US & EU (and Taiwan for semiconductor reasons) made parts.. the energy mix of the import-export dynamic seems like it needs a lot of analysis - I would like something authoritative that shows an attempt at an analysis, I can't seem to find it.