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This is very pessimistic. The technology became widely available in November. Sure, it’s possible we will hit a wall and not get significant improvements. Or it

This is very pessimistic. The technology became widely available in November. Sure, it’s possible we will hit a wall and not get significant improvements. Or it’s possible we are where internet technology was in 1995. Already, I use ChatGPT almost daily to help me spot bugs. Doesn’t do a perfect job but it is at least 10x smarter than the rubber duck on my desk. I used it to port 7 modules python code into Node/JavaScript. I’m familiar with JS. It did a reasonably good job. And I use it all the time to prototype. Four weeks ago, I knew nothing about chrome extension development. Three weeks ago I released an extension on the chrome store. It’s not that ChatGPT wrote the extension… far from it. But it got me past the initial knowledge gap pretty quickly so that I could focus on the parts of code that I already know how to do.

wokwokwok 3y ago
All I’ve said is make an informed opinion instead of relying on your intuition based on the first two seconds of trying to use the tools. > It did a reasonably good job …and you probably had to fix a few things, but over all it saved you time and offered a modest productivity boost. You have clearly actually used these tools. I’m not being negative about LLMs; they’re great tools; modest, helpful, non-world ending tools. That’s been my experience, and I also use them daily. …this “2 minutes and you have an Uber”, unbounded productivity for small tasks = unbounded productivity for large tasks narrative is just people failing to understand what they’re using, because they haven’t used it enough to gain an intuition of how vastly distant where we are now is from that end goal. That’s the point. It’s not pessimism about the future; it’s more like: Pay attention to what we have right now by actually using it, because the shiny examples people give you are, bluntly cherry-picked. Don’t believe the hype. It’s good. It’s not that good.

wokwokwok 3y ago

All I’ve said is make an informed opinion instead of relying on your intuition based on the first two seconds of trying to use the tools. > It did a reasonably good job …and you probably had to fix a few things, but over all it saved you time and offered a modest productivity boost. You have clearly actually used these tools. I’m not being negative about LLMs; they’re great tools; modest, helpful, non-world ending tools. That’s been my experience, and I also use them daily. …this “2 minutes and you have an Uber”, unbounded productivity for small tasks = unbounded productivity for large tasks narrative is just people failing to understand what they’re using, because they haven’t used it enough to gain an intuition of how vastly distant where we are now is from that end goal. That’s the point. It’s not pessimism about the future; it’s more like: Pay attention to what we have right now by actually using it, because the shiny examples people give you are, bluntly cherry-picked. Don’t believe the hype. It’s good. It’s not that good.