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Yesterday I saw my nephew, just four years old, talk with such excitement at a train he saw last week. In eras gone by I'm sure this would have people wondering

Yesterday I saw my nephew, just four years old, talk with such excitement at a train he saw last week. In eras gone by I'm sure this would have people wondering if he'll be a train driver when he grows up, but I'm under no illusions that "climate refugee" is the only possible future he is hurtling towards. I don't know how his parents handle it, if they have accepted it at all.

drewcon 3y ago
I don’t know where you (or your nephew are) but you’re tremendously underplaying the human races ability to simply adapt.
- sofixa 3y ago
  How do you simply adapt to temperatures which are literally unlivable such as wet bulb temperatures hitting 33C+ in areas such as the Middle East and South Asia? Humans literally cannot survive at such temperatures. Mass migration or mass investment in redoing the building stock and electrical grid to make indoors habitable are the only options, and neither are really viable (tens of millions migrating will cause severe issues up to and including wars, meanwhile most of the countries likely to be impacted simply do not have the money nor governance needed to rebuild everything with AC).
  - Roark66 3y ago
    At the (usual) risk of being down voted to oblivion. There is plenty of space in more northern areas. Most European countries are approaching negative population growth. Huge swaths of Siberia and Canada are underpopulated. Still there are people that choose to live in places where one can barely survive with no AC (Dubai in summer, certain hot parts of the US, and many others). How are people "simply adapting" to these temperatures now?
    - carapace 3y ago
      That's the "mass migration" OP mentioned, eh? Do you imagine a billion people moving from India to Siberia? (Edit to add: that would be so epic that the entire Mahābhārata could be seen as it's prelude.)
  - tremon 3y ago
    How do you simply adapt to temperatures which are literally unlivable such as wet bulb temperatures hitting 33C+ in areas such as the Middle East and South Asia? Seek shelter during those hours, such as underground.
  - lelanthran 3y ago
    > How do you simply adapt to temperatures which are literally unlivable such as wet bulb temperatures hitting 33C+ in areas such as the Middle East and South Asia? You move. Climate change of the magnitude you are talking about does not happen overnight. That change happens over a few hundred years, not over a weekend.
  - jonhohle 3y ago
    Living in AZ it’s not uncommon to have runs of 43ºC for weeks on end. Oh, and there’s not much water. The Hohokam people brought water in by digging canals by hand 600 years ago. Now >5 million people live in the Phoenix area and put up with this heat every summer - lots of retirees to, not just healthy young people. Does construction, sports, or other outdoor activity stop during the summer? No. More might move to early in the morning or later at night, but last summer I regularly ran 5K twice a week when it was between 35-38ºC. California is taking the bulk of the water we naturally have by river, and Saudi Arabia is taking a significant amount of our groundwater (by alfalfa farming), and we’ve not started wars with either. On the other hand we have a lot of sun and we’re able to offset >100% of our cooling cost with solar energy (amortized over the year, but also at any point in time if our installer hadn’t undersized our inverter). None of that would have been possible 40 years ago, but buildings are being retrofit every day here. All that to say, people will adapt. Some will migrate. Some area may become more habitable, some less.
- Devasta 3y ago
  Most people couldn't even handle masking and staying indoors during a plague. At a time when hospitals were rationing oxygen they were folks acting like not being able to go to Applebee's was a human rights violation. The most likely adaptation is some form of eco-fascism.
- cagenut 3y ago
  being a refugee is an adaptation to climate change, you and the OP are not in disagreement.
Robotbeat 3y ago
This is not even close to the scientific consensus on climate change. It’s just as unscientific and counterproductive as the drivel repeated by climate denialists. Climate Doomerism is just another kind of denialism, in effect. But even if that were true, who says you can’t drive trains in a climate catastrophe? There’s a whole movie on the topic. ;) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowpiercer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowpiercer
- lelanthran 3y ago
  TBH, I enjoyed the series more than I wanted to admit; plot holes galore, everyone carrying the stupid ball, but I enjoyed it
- Roark66 3y ago
  Exactly, at this stage the panic inducing "OMG we're all going to die/out children will live in MadMax world for sure" mental state should be added to the long list of dangers caused by the climate around the climate change. Right after the danger of knee-jerk deindustrialisation of the West and collapse of democracies in favor of autocracies. These countries (like China) not only double their greenhouse emissions for each tonne we limit, they also actively promote fear and panic amongst our populations that leads to the very deindustrialisation that will form the basis of their power over us. However, I remain optimistic, yes there is climate change, yes it will have a range of effects on people depending on where they live. From the lengthening of the growing season and all the positive outcomes, through minor inconvenience, to crop failures/lack of water and death of the others. Sadly, some of the poorest regions on the planet will be hit the worst and some of the most wealthy will reap the benefits. Without actual physical power over countries like China there is no stopping of climate change. The best we(democracies) can do is to retain as much power as possible to help as many people as possible during this time. Imagine scenario 1 where a climate change is slowed down by 1C over next 20 years at the cost of entire deindustrialisation of Europe, and it's subsequent subjugation to Russian-Chinese partnership. Then scenario 2 where we have 1C of extra warming now not in 20 years, but Europe remains free, wealthy and able to continue to help poorer countries, accept refugees etc. Which world is going to be a better one? I think people will choose option 2.

drewcon 3y ago

I don’t know where you (or your nephew are) but you’re tremendously underplaying the human races ability to simply adapt.

sofixa 3y ago
How do you simply adapt to temperatures which are literally unlivable such as wet bulb temperatures hitting 33C+ in areas such as the Middle East and South Asia? Humans literally cannot survive at such temperatures. Mass migration or mass investment in redoing the building stock and electrical grid to make indoors habitable are the only options, and neither are really viable (tens of millions migrating will cause severe issues up to and including wars, meanwhile most of the countries likely to be impacted simply do not have the money nor governance needed to rebuild everything with AC).
- Roark66 3y ago
  At the (usual) risk of being down voted to oblivion. There is plenty of space in more northern areas. Most European countries are approaching negative population growth. Huge swaths of Siberia and Canada are underpopulated. Still there are people that choose to live in places where one can barely survive with no AC (Dubai in summer, certain hot parts of the US, and many others). How are people "simply adapting" to these temperatures now?
  - carapace 3y ago
    That's the "mass migration" OP mentioned, eh? Do you imagine a billion people moving from India to Siberia? (Edit to add: that would be so epic that the entire Mahābhārata could be seen as it's prelude.)
- tremon 3y ago
  How do you simply adapt to temperatures which are literally unlivable such as wet bulb temperatures hitting 33C+ in areas such as the Middle East and South Asia? Seek shelter during those hours, such as underground.
- lelanthran 3y ago
  > How do you simply adapt to temperatures which are literally unlivable such as wet bulb temperatures hitting 33C+ in areas such as the Middle East and South Asia? You move. Climate change of the magnitude you are talking about does not happen overnight. That change happens over a few hundred years, not over a weekend.
- jonhohle 3y ago
  Living in AZ it’s not uncommon to have runs of 43ºC for weeks on end. Oh, and there’s not much water. The Hohokam people brought water in by digging canals by hand 600 years ago. Now >5 million people live in the Phoenix area and put up with this heat every summer - lots of retirees to, not just healthy young people. Does construction, sports, or other outdoor activity stop during the summer? No. More might move to early in the morning or later at night, but last summer I regularly ran 5K twice a week when it was between 35-38ºC. California is taking the bulk of the water we naturally have by river, and Saudi Arabia is taking a significant amount of our groundwater (by alfalfa farming), and we’ve not started wars with either. On the other hand we have a lot of sun and we’re able to offset >100% of our cooling cost with solar energy (amortized over the year, but also at any point in time if our installer hadn’t undersized our inverter). None of that would have been possible 40 years ago, but buildings are being retrofit every day here. All that to say, people will adapt. Some will migrate. Some area may become more habitable, some less.
Devasta 3y ago
Most people couldn't even handle masking and staying indoors during a plague. At a time when hospitals were rationing oxygen they were folks acting like not being able to go to Applebee's was a human rights violation. The most likely adaptation is some form of eco-fascism.
cagenut 3y ago
being a refugee is an adaptation to climate change, you and the OP are not in disagreement.

Robotbeat 3y ago

This is not even close to the scientific consensus on climate change. It’s just as unscientific and counterproductive as the drivel repeated by climate denialists. Climate Doomerism is just another kind of denialism, in effect. But even if that were true, who says you can’t drive trains in a climate catastrophe? There’s a whole movie on the topic. ;) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowpiercer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowpiercer

lelanthran 3y ago
TBH, I enjoyed the series more than I wanted to admit; plot holes galore, everyone carrying the stupid ball, but I enjoyed it
Roark66 3y ago
Exactly, at this stage the panic inducing "OMG we're all going to die/out children will live in MadMax world for sure" mental state should be added to the long list of dangers caused by the climate around the climate change. Right after the danger of knee-jerk deindustrialisation of the West and collapse of democracies in favor of autocracies. These countries (like China) not only double their greenhouse emissions for each tonne we limit, they also actively promote fear and panic amongst our populations that leads to the very deindustrialisation that will form the basis of their power over us. However, I remain optimistic, yes there is climate change, yes it will have a range of effects on people depending on where they live. From the lengthening of the growing season and all the positive outcomes, through minor inconvenience, to crop failures/lack of water and death of the others. Sadly, some of the poorest regions on the planet will be hit the worst and some of the most wealthy will reap the benefits. Without actual physical power over countries like China there is no stopping of climate change. The best we(democracies) can do is to retain as much power as possible to help as many people as possible during this time. Imagine scenario 1 where a climate change is slowed down by 1C over next 20 years at the cost of entire deindustrialisation of Europe, and it's subsequent subjugation to Russian-Chinese partnership. Then scenario 2 where we have 1C of extra warming now not in 20 years, but Europe remains free, wealthy and able to continue to help poorer countries, accept refugees etc. Which world is going to be a better one? I think people will choose option 2.