3 ms·

Consider however that 7 nm (TSMC N7, Intel 10ESF/Intel 7, Samsung 8/7 nm) is universally a DUV (193 nm light) process using multipatterning. The nodes below are

Consider however that 7 nm (TSMC N7, Intel 10ESF/Intel 7, Samsung 8/7 nm) is universally a DUV (193 nm light) process using multipatterning. The nodes below are universally EUV. That's a step-change in complexity. If "The West" manages to contain EUV to friendly countries, then it doesn't seem unlikely to me at all that Chinese semiconductors will run into the EUV wall and get stuck for a significant amount of time trying to get over it.

bhouston 3y ago
Yes, but it is likely China can over come it. China has lots of educated people and as close to infinite resources as you can get on this planet. So it is just a matter of focus. Blockading a small country that doesn't have a lot of resources can be very effective, even long-term, look at Cuba or Gaza Strip, but blockading China just slows them down temporarily until they overcome this challenge. The main issue China has is just that they have a population decline problem which will continue to get worse over the next 50 years. That to me is the only thing that truly threatens China long-term and will sap its innovation and productivity.
- xvilka 3y ago
  > The main issue China has is just that they have a population decline problem which will continue to get worse over the next 50 years. It can be (and likely will be - just see at corresponding market figures) mitigated by ubiquitous automation and robotics.
  - ajb 3y ago
    They also have over a billion people total. The top percentiles of the rural population are likely not tapped out yet.
- est 3y ago
  > The main issue China has is just that they have a population decline problem which will continue to get worse over the next 50 years cough Industrial Revolution cough Black Death cough
- nocoiner 3y ago
  Why is China still struggling to build reliable, top-tier aircraft engines? Isn’t relatively non-exotic metallurgy fairly rudimentary technology compared to cutting edge semiconductor fabrication?
  - angio 3y ago
    Because they can buy western-made aircraft engines for a fraction of the price it would cost to develop one domestically.

bhouston 3y ago

Yes, but it is likely China can over come it. China has lots of educated people and as close to infinite resources as you can get on this planet. So it is just a matter of focus. Blockading a small country that doesn't have a lot of resources can be very effective, even long-term, look at Cuba or Gaza Strip, but blockading China just slows them down temporarily until they overcome this challenge. The main issue China has is just that they have a population decline problem which will continue to get worse over the next 50 years. That to me is the only thing that truly threatens China long-term and will sap its innovation and productivity.

xvilka 3y ago
> The main issue China has is just that they have a population decline problem which will continue to get worse over the next 50 years. It can be (and likely will be - just see at corresponding market figures) mitigated by ubiquitous automation and robotics.
- ajb 3y ago
  They also have over a billion people total. The top percentiles of the rural population are likely not tapped out yet.
est 3y ago
> The main issue China has is just that they have a population decline problem which will continue to get worse over the next 50 years cough Industrial Revolution cough Black Death cough
nocoiner 3y ago
Why is China still struggling to build reliable, top-tier aircraft engines? Isn’t relatively non-exotic metallurgy fairly rudimentary technology compared to cutting edge semiconductor fabrication?
- angio 3y ago
  Because they can buy western-made aircraft engines for a fraction of the price it would cost to develop one domestically.