It feels like almost every history-related research news item I've come across on HN lately on closer inspection appears to involve lots of guessing and wishful

It feels like almost every history-related research news item I've come across on HN lately on closer inspection appears to involve lots of guessing and wishful thinking, often in 3+ convoluted steps. I suppose only the most sensational things make it here and they probably tend to be more bogus than the non-sensational findings.