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Is there a site showing our socioeconomical possibilities and coutries' carbon-heavy investments that are in the pipeline? I hear 1.5 C, 2 C all the time, but

Is there a site showing our socioeconomical possibilities and coutries' carbon-heavy investments that are in the pipeline? I hear 1.5 C, 2 C all the time, but not much is happening [1] so I am looking for a best estimate to what should I expect in 2030, 2040 and 2050; not that 1.5 is "technicaly possible" cause it's practically impossible. [1] https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/12/12/analysis/co2-vs-cops https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/12/12/analysis/co2-vs-...

nebrie 3y ago
In 1990, the U.S. Navy predicted that the Earth would warm as much as 4 degrees Celsius by 2040 https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/climatechange/globalclimatechange-navy.pdf https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/climat...
- badtension 3y ago
  This is about the same I heard from a climatologist in my country: we are on track for 3-4 C. Is it possible though? If so - how are we not freaking out about it?
  - jfengel 3y ago
    Yes, that is the case. The people who care are freaking out. The ones intent on denying it at all costs are sufficient to prevent them from doing anything about it.
- runarberg 3y ago
  And that was a reasonable prediction at that time. Since than climate models have improved significantly, computing power has increased by several orders of magnitude, and policies and technology has changed—both as a response to the climate crises, and as technology and infrastructure improves around the world. Today’s models predict 1.5°-2.0° C by 2040, and 4° C by 2100 if no additional climate mitigations (not even promised or pledged) are implemented. The 4° C scenario is generally regarded as unrealistic so most climate models have another prediction which accounts for some additional climate mitigation which most countries have promised and pledged and put the increase at 2°-3° in 2100.
  - jgilias 3y ago
    It sounds like the only reason why the 4 degree Celsius scenario is deemed unrealistic is that people don’t like it. So they have come up with hopium about as of yet imaginary solutions and veracity of carbon pledges.
    - runarberg 3y ago
      I think I agree with you. 4° is much more likely IMO than 1.5° given how governments tend to align them selves with the interest of the rich above all else. However I think at some point continuing climate inaction will not only become politically infeasible but also economically infeasible. However at that point we will have acted to little too late, and will be looking at a 2-3° warming. Climate optimists will have you believe that 2-3° is actually not that bad, however I believe this sort of climate optimism amounts to climate denial, 2-3° is definitely a horror scenario effectively destroying our current way of life. Millions of people will die, millions more will be forced to flee—and they won’t be accepted as refugees, wars will break out, our economy will collapse, and the poor will starve in a 2-3° scenario.
      - goatlover 3y ago
        How do you know all that will happen in your second paragraph? Is there a model making such a prediction for society in the 2-3° scenario? If skeptics of such societal projections are denialists, then are you a doomer? There's another possibility. Society will adapt and things won't be nightmarish, because 2-3° warming isn't extreme enough to break down society, when people will have decades to adapt.
        runarberg 3y ago
        > How do you know all that will happen in your second paragraph? We have barely reached 1.5° C and people are already dying by the thousands, people are already fleeing by thousands more—and people are already not accepted as refugees. There are entire areas which are become more and more inhospitably which are experiencing disproportionately more famines, coups, and even wars (namely the Sahel region in Africa). Yes I am a climate doomer, but I believe doomerism is the reasonable reaction to our climate reality.
lucb1e 3y ago
> not much is happening [1] so I am looking for a best estimate to what should I expect Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#/media/File:Greenhouse_gas_emission_scenarios_01.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#/media/File:Gre... Searched for a Wikipedia article called global warming -> automatic redirect to climate change article -> scroll through different graphs et voila, found this one
- badtension 3y ago
  Does this graph include multiple tipping points that we might trigger along the way? I am afraid it might not, please correct me if I'm wrong. Many of them are becoming "likely" after passing 2 C [1]. [1] https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping-points-reassessment-explainer/ https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping...
  - lucb1e 3y ago
    I don't know. I generally take these graphs at face value: because it's above 2°C, it doesn't really change that we have a lot to do still. The only question is: a lot of what? Convincing people? Convincing politicians? Signing up for a job as wind turbine builder? What's most effective is what I'm currently struggling with the most (but not what you asked, sorry) I guess it's also unpleasant to know. I can't change tipping points anyway, I'm already pushing for change as hard as I personally can without becoming a hermit or similar
    - badtension 3y ago
      Yeah I have no idea either. To me what is happening (not happening?) is surreal.

nebrie 3y ago

In 1990, the U.S. Navy predicted that the Earth would warm as much as 4 degrees Celsius by 2040 https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/climatechange/globalclimatechange-navy.pdf https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/climat...

badtension 3y ago
This is about the same I heard from a climatologist in my country: we are on track for 3-4 C. Is it possible though? If so - how are we not freaking out about it?
- jfengel 3y ago
  Yes, that is the case. The people who care are freaking out. The ones intent on denying it at all costs are sufficient to prevent them from doing anything about it.
runarberg 3y ago
And that was a reasonable prediction at that time. Since than climate models have improved significantly, computing power has increased by several orders of magnitude, and policies and technology has changed—both as a response to the climate crises, and as technology and infrastructure improves around the world. Today’s models predict 1.5°-2.0° C by 2040, and 4° C by 2100 if no additional climate mitigations (not even promised or pledged) are implemented. The 4° C scenario is generally regarded as unrealistic so most climate models have another prediction which accounts for some additional climate mitigation which most countries have promised and pledged and put the increase at 2°-3° in 2100.
- jgilias 3y ago
  It sounds like the only reason why the 4 degree Celsius scenario is deemed unrealistic is that people don’t like it. So they have come up with hopium about as of yet imaginary solutions and veracity of carbon pledges.
  - runarberg 3y ago
    I think I agree with you. 4° is much more likely IMO than 1.5° given how governments tend to align them selves with the interest of the rich above all else. However I think at some point continuing climate inaction will not only become politically infeasible but also economically infeasible. However at that point we will have acted to little too late, and will be looking at a 2-3° warming. Climate optimists will have you believe that 2-3° is actually not that bad, however I believe this sort of climate optimism amounts to climate denial, 2-3° is definitely a horror scenario effectively destroying our current way of life. Millions of people will die, millions more will be forced to flee—and they won’t be accepted as refugees, wars will break out, our economy will collapse, and the poor will starve in a 2-3° scenario.
    - goatlover 3y ago
      How do you know all that will happen in your second paragraph? Is there a model making such a prediction for society in the 2-3° scenario? If skeptics of such societal projections are denialists, then are you a doomer? There's another possibility. Society will adapt and things won't be nightmarish, because 2-3° warming isn't extreme enough to break down society, when people will have decades to adapt.
      - runarberg 3y ago
        > How do you know all that will happen in your second paragraph? We have barely reached 1.5° C and people are already dying by the thousands, people are already fleeing by thousands more—and people are already not accepted as refugees. There are entire areas which are become more and more inhospitably which are experiencing disproportionately more famines, coups, and even wars (namely the Sahel region in Africa). Yes I am a climate doomer, but I believe doomerism is the reasonable reaction to our climate reality.

lucb1e 3y ago

> not much is happening [1] so I am looking for a best estimate to what should I expect Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#/media/File:Greenhouse_gas_emission_scenarios_01.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#/media/File:Gre... Searched for a Wikipedia article called global warming -> automatic redirect to climate change article -> scroll through different graphs et voila, found this one

badtension 3y ago
Does this graph include multiple tipping points that we might trigger along the way? I am afraid it might not, please correct me if I'm wrong. Many of them are becoming "likely" after passing 2 C [1]. [1] https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping-points-reassessment-explainer/ https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping...
- lucb1e 3y ago
  I don't know. I generally take these graphs at face value: because it's above 2°C, it doesn't really change that we have a lot to do still. The only question is: a lot of what? Convincing people? Convincing politicians? Signing up for a job as wind turbine builder? What's most effective is what I'm currently struggling with the most (but not what you asked, sorry) I guess it's also unpleasant to know. I can't change tipping points anyway, I'm already pushing for change as hard as I personally can without becoming a hermit or similar
  - badtension 3y ago
    Yeah I have no idea either. To me what is happening (not happening?) is surreal.