2 ms·
> Holding 25% of your wealth in cash is planning to throwing away years of life. You have to look at the portfolio as a whole. When stocks fall 50% you'll be g
by thunky 3y ago
> Holding 25% of your wealth in cash is planning to throwing away years of life.
You have to look at the portfolio as a whole. When stocks fall 50% you'll be glad to have some cash because:
1. You'll be down less than 50%
2. You'll be able to buy more stocks at a discount (via rebalancing)
- Rebelgecko 3y agoI wonder if this has been back tested? The advantages of 1 and 2 don't seem to be a good trade for 25% fewer gains in the majority of years.
- thunky 3y agoIt's a well known portfolio so it has been analyzed quite a bit. You can backtest it yourself: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Harry+Browne+Permanent+Portfolio&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=100&allocation1_2=75&allocation1_3=25&asset2=TreasuryBills&allocation2_2=25&allocation2_3=25&asset3=LongTreasury&allocation3_3=25&asset4=Gold&allocation4_3=25 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-all... - portfolio 1 is all stocks - portfolio 2 is 75% stocks, 25% cash - portfolio 3 is the "Harry Browne Permanent Porfolio" (selected from the "lazy portolios" option) Take a look at the "drawdowns" tab.