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So they say 1 crash every 60k miles (or about 5 years worth of driving). I really doubt humans have one crash every 5 years on average. Then they say 1 fatal c

by roomey 3y ago

So they say 1 crash every 60k miles (or about 5 years worth of driving). I really doubt humans have one crash every 5 years on average. Then they say 1 fatal crash every 100 million miles.... And then make it sound like we have to have self driven cars drive 100 million miles before we can tell if they are safer. That article is all over the place.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
variants 3y ago
Yeah it sounds like they are using weird averages and applying them to a small fleet of self driving cars and saying they are safer because they have had less accidents than the millions of people on the road
elif 3y ago
There is a big gap between scraped a shopping cart and head on collision. This is why Tesla reports 'miles between accidents resulting in airbag deployment.' The national average is 600k miles. For FSD (which has over 300M miles driven) it is 3.2M miles between accidents.
- adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
  while this methodology makes sense, it's hard to get the thought out of my head of the Tesla self driving car intentionally not deploying the airbag because it will bring down it's stats
  - elif 3y ago
    Then get into your head that Tesla engineers use the fact that the entire fleet has video and telemetry data in order to fine tune the use of airbags for the exact opposite purpose: to reduce injury caused by both excessive and insufficient airbag deployment.
adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
two things: 1 most crashes are very minor (e.g. getting into or out of a parking space) and also most crashes are from people who are some combination of under 20, over 80, drunk, or just atrocious at driving. most people's crash rate is a lot lower
tialaramex 3y ago
> So they say 1 crash every 60k miles (or about 5 years worth of driving). I really doubt humans have one crash every 5 years on average. Oh not humans. Americans. Most developed countries are much safer. America has found a lot of exciting ways to make this worse, whether its choosing more dangerous technology, not prioritising safety in design, or just obvious stuff like oops we made it crucial for everybody to drive so now we have to let everybody drive even though that's unsafe.
- ulizzle 3y ago
  Americans don't have an average of one car crash every five years.
Closi 3y ago
I don't think those facts are incompatible. 1) You would need self driven cars to drive over 100 million miles to validate that, assuming that there have been no deaths from full 'self driving' (i.e. Cruise/Waymo rather than Tesla, which isn't level 4) 2) Depends what you call a crash - 1 impact per 5 years might not be entirely wrong... According to this link: https://1800lionlaw.com/how-many-times-will-your-crash-you-car-in-your-lifetime/ https://1800lionlaw.com/how-many-times-will-your-crash-you-c... > The car insurance industry estimates that the average driver will file a claim for a collision about once every 17.9 years. This matches me - I've had 1 crash in 15 years of driving which resulted in a claim (someone drove into the side of me), but there have been at least 2 other impacts which have not resulted in a claim (1 person bumped into the back of my car on a motorway and impacted but but no damage, and there was one incident where I accidentally scraped a car when parking and I agreed to pay the driver for repainting directly without going through insurance).

by roomey 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

variants 3y ago

Yeah it sounds like they are using weird averages and applying them to a small fleet of self driving cars and saying they are safer because they have had less accidents than the millions of people on the road

elif 3y ago

There is a big gap between scraped a shopping cart and head on collision. This is why Tesla reports 'miles between accidents resulting in airbag deployment.' The national average is 600k miles. For FSD (which has over 300M miles driven) it is 3.2M miles between accidents.

adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
while this methodology makes sense, it's hard to get the thought out of my head of the Tesla self driving car intentionally not deploying the airbag because it will bring down it's stats
- elif 3y ago
  Then get into your head that Tesla engineers use the fact that the entire fleet has video and telemetry data in order to fine tune the use of airbags for the exact opposite purpose: to reduce injury caused by both excessive and insufficient airbag deployment.

adgjlsfhk1 3y ago

two things: 1 most crashes are very minor (e.g. getting into or out of a parking space) and also most crashes are from people who are some combination of under 20, over 80, drunk, or just atrocious at driving. most people's crash rate is a lot lower

tialaramex 3y ago

> So they say 1 crash every 60k miles (or about 5 years worth of driving). I really doubt humans have one crash every 5 years on average. Oh not humans. Americans. Most developed countries are much safer. America has found a lot of exciting ways to make this worse, whether its choosing more dangerous technology, not prioritising safety in design, or just obvious stuff like oops we made it crucial for everybody to drive so now we have to let everybody drive even though that's unsafe.

ulizzle 3y ago
Americans don't have an average of one car crash every five years.

Closi 3y ago

I don't think those facts are incompatible. 1) You would need self driven cars to drive over 100 million miles to validate that, assuming that there have been no deaths from full 'self driving' (i.e. Cruise/Waymo rather than Tesla, which isn't level 4) 2) Depends what you call a crash - 1 impact per 5 years might not be entirely wrong... According to this link: https://1800lionlaw.com/how-many-times-will-your-crash-you-car-in-your-lifetime/ https://1800lionlaw.com/how-many-times-will-your-crash-you-c... > The car insurance industry estimates that the average driver will file a claim for a collision about once every 17.9 years. This matches me - I've had 1 crash in 15 years of driving which resulted in a claim (someone drove into the side of me), but there have been at least 2 other impacts which have not resulted in a claim (1 person bumped into the back of my car on a motorway and impacted but but no damage, and there was one incident where I accidentally scraped a car when parking and I agreed to pay the driver for repainting directly without going through insurance).