5 ms·

The Shadow Superpower

79 points by cs702 15y ago

peter_l_downs 15y ago
Also described in this excellent wired article, which I think is a more concise overview of the subject: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/12/mf_neuwirth_qa/ http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/12/mf_neuwirth_qa/
- cs702 15y ago
  Thanks for that link. The Wired article is less in-depth and lacks links to all the external research and data, but it's a good alternative for readers who just want to grok the key points quickly.
rvkennedy 15y ago
tl;dr: Having conducted an exhaustive study of the world's economic future, it turns out that it conforms almost exactly to my libertarian worldview!
- jerf 15y ago
  This is just snark. This article is more about the now than the future, and it's about what is, not what "should" be. You're posting this snark precisely because it does pose a significant challenge to the conventional worldview in which regulation is the answer to everything. Why not address the issues directly with some productive discussion instead of trying to cocoon yourself behind a snarky dismissal? For instance, a starter question from each ideological direction: If the regulatory state is so wonderful, why are so many people being forced to bypass it, or basically starve/stay poor? And how can we bring the benefits of a well-regulated state to these places that aren't exactly rolling in free-flowing cash and can't afford any sort of very expensive regulation? (Because while a small 4 page article may not have discussed it except for an off-hand comment, I'm sure there's rampant abuses and mafia-like organizations in this economy.)
- crusso 15y ago
  I definitely believe the "dr" part. The article is just describing an economic ecosystem that is in play today. It reads like someone's attempt to wrap his head around something new and different that needs to be understood. If this economy is as large and successful as it's claimed to be, then we should be making an effort to understand it as well. You'd need to be pretty heartless to decry it on face value when it does something so basic in our modern world as provide electrical power for people who have been denied it by their current economic system or government for one reason or another. If you have a reason to counter the facts in the story, by all means speak up.
  - stcredzero 15y ago
    You'd need to be pretty heartless to decry it on face value when it does something so basic in our modern world as provide electrical power for people Have you ever been at a large campground with widespread portable generator use? There are >definite< externalities. I would take steps to further lubricate commerce. Technology that can leapfrog the build-out of infrastructure like roads is one possibility.
    - crusso 15y ago
      I don't understand your point. No one is lubricating commerce for these people. Their current government and economic system is failing them miserably. What they've done to better the lives of themselves and those around them, they've done for themselves in spite of their current government and its forced economics. These people aren't trading in drugs or slaves. They're doing something quite remarkable and how they're doing it should be studied.
      - stcredzero 15y ago
        No one is lubricating commerce for these people. Their current government and economic system is failing them miserably. Yes, so imagine if we came in with technical solutions that leapfrog their failed government? For example, there's a program to replace mail service with small parcel delivery by quadcopter drone. No roads during the rainy season? No problem!
- sethg 15y ago
  Libertarian, except for the “gangsters who control the fruit market... running a price-fixing cartel” mentioned on page 3.
- tomjen3 15y ago
  So you are surprised that a system in which there is relatively little government oversight and few people who initiates the use of force resembles a system which is defined by relatively little government oversight and no initiation of force?
oskarth 15y ago
Single page view: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_market_global_economy?page=full http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_marke... EDIT: Nevermind my suggestion to post the single page view. It was my belief that readability ought to be valued more than double-submission-prevention mechanisms, but it seems like a lot of people disagree with that notion.
- tokenadult 15y ago
  To the contrary, please post the canonical URL of any article, http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3571353 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3571353 and let the user decide what page view or what display defaults to show. (On a well designed website, the user's user agent will be autodetected, and the default display will be a reasonable view that leads to options for single-page or other special display formats.) That lets the Hacker News duplicate submission detector do its best work. It is, of course, all right (but not strictly necessary) to mention a link to another view of the article, as you kindly did, in a comment.
corford 15y ago
It's a good read and instantly made me think of Bitcoin. "Bitcoin - The currency for the System D generation"
- cs702 15y ago
  Agree. An expert on e-money on crypto currencies just articulated exactly the same point here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/03/19/could-bitcoin-become-the-currency-of-system-d/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/03/19/could-bitc...
  - corford 15y ago
    Thanks for the link! I think he's dead right (the last sentence says everything).
    - cs702 15y ago
      I think there's a good chance he will be proven right over time. You may appreciate this blog post too: http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adoption-and-price-appreciation-of-bitcoin-in-the-long-run/ http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adopt...
  - TheAmazingIdiot 15y ago
    I've considered this very idea. I've thought of a few legit business ideas that I cannot afford the legal costs of startup. I could, instead, do it without help and rely on system d with multiple payment options. It would most certainly include bitcoin as a payment option. One of the ideas is effectively is what paypal does with money, but with people. They break state money transmitter laws, yet still stay in business. Mine would break labor laws, only because they are meant for the individual to work for X bigCo.
solson 15y ago
Meanwhile in the highly planned and regulated Swedish economy... they are planning to end cash, a step which the government elites tout as progress and sell as a safety measure. Looks like the underground will need to find an alternative currency. Bitcoin? http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/economy/voice-of-opposition-grows-as-sweden-considers-going-cashless http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/economy/voice-of-opposition...
- cs702 15y ago
  Agree. In the absence of officially sanctioned cash, something like Bitcoin would likely become a viable alternative for System D transactions. See http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3735407 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3735407 elsewhere in this thread.
- bilbo0s 15y ago
  Hmm... Not really sure bitcoin could compete well in Systeme D. You are dealing with a lot of people who believe in cash or precious metals. These bring trust in Systeme D. One thing the article doesn't mention is that the Somalis are actually making a pretty big impact as proprietors of a sort of 'banking' system for these kinds of transactions. If you give a Somali 'banker' ... say ... 2000 Euro in Norway, you can count on your cousin in St. Paul, MN getting 2000 Euro from one of the local Somalis. The same is true if you want money to go from Sao Paolo to Capetown. Or Shanghai to Dubai, etc. Their system is robust, extremely trustworthy, and most important, quiet. It is DEEPLY lodged in shadow trans african trade, and rapidly growing in shadow global trade. It will be hard to displace a system like that. Unless the world's Governments decide to invade Somalia, which does seem to be the case lately. One place bitcoin might be useful is in large transactions. The Somalis don't seem to be interested in facilitating these yet, and for obvious reasons, merchants do not want to use cash. If bitcoin builds a reputation for trust on large transactions, perhaps through the convenience of mobile phones it can work its way down the food chain so to speak. But... yeah ... right now there are a lot of Africans for instance, who trust the Somali networks more than the banks in their own countries. Trust like that is hard to earn...and very expensive to buy. It could happen for bitcoin though if boosters put in the work.
  - 15y ago
CountHackulus 15y ago
Isn't this essentially the Star Trek economy? These people work to improve themselves and their surroundings.
- sunir 15y ago
  The exact opposite. They lack any financial security or a society that protects then so they must hustle to survive. In Star Trek they live in a society with abundance and so the state can provide everything.
- stcredzero 15y ago
  That's also the Kim Stanley Robinson Mars trilogy's economy.
stcredzero 15y ago
"Shadow Superpower" is perhaps misleading. To me, a Superpower can project concerted military or economic power over an extended period of time, and has considerable resistance to the tried and true tactics of "divide and conquer." Then again, perhaps it's not. Is the US so resistant to "divide and conquer?" Can we still project concerted military or economic power over an extended period of time?
xccx 15y ago
"Systeme D.", débrouillard, resourceful, ingenious, inventive, self-starting, entrepreneurial, "l'economie de la débrouillardise." ingenuity economy, the economy of improvisation, self-reliance, do-it-yourself, or DIY, economy of skill, joy.

79 points by cs702 15y ago

Also described in this excellent wired article, which I think is a more concise overview of the subject: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/12/mf_neuwirth_qa/ http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/12/mf_neuwirth_qa/

cs702 15y ago
Thanks for that link. The Wired article is less in-depth and lacks links to all the external research and data, but it's a good alternative for readers who just want to grok the key points quickly.

rvkennedy 15y ago

tl;dr: Having conducted an exhaustive study of the world's economic future, it turns out that it conforms almost exactly to my libertarian worldview!

jerf 15y ago
This is just snark. This article is more about the now than the future, and it's about what is, not what "should" be. You're posting this snark precisely because it does pose a significant challenge to the conventional worldview in which regulation is the answer to everything. Why not address the issues directly with some productive discussion instead of trying to cocoon yourself behind a snarky dismissal? For instance, a starter question from each ideological direction: If the regulatory state is so wonderful, why are so many people being forced to bypass it, or basically starve/stay poor? And how can we bring the benefits of a well-regulated state to these places that aren't exactly rolling in free-flowing cash and can't afford any sort of very expensive regulation? (Because while a small 4 page article may not have discussed it except for an off-hand comment, I'm sure there's rampant abuses and mafia-like organizations in this economy.)
crusso 15y ago
I definitely believe the "dr" part. The article is just describing an economic ecosystem that is in play today. It reads like someone's attempt to wrap his head around something new and different that needs to be understood. If this economy is as large and successful as it's claimed to be, then we should be making an effort to understand it as well. You'd need to be pretty heartless to decry it on face value when it does something so basic in our modern world as provide electrical power for people who have been denied it by their current economic system or government for one reason or another. If you have a reason to counter the facts in the story, by all means speak up.
- stcredzero 15y ago
  You'd need to be pretty heartless to decry it on face value when it does something so basic in our modern world as provide electrical power for people Have you ever been at a large campground with widespread portable generator use? There are >definite< externalities. I would take steps to further lubricate commerce. Technology that can leapfrog the build-out of infrastructure like roads is one possibility.
  - crusso 15y ago
    I don't understand your point. No one is lubricating commerce for these people. Their current government and economic system is failing them miserably. What they've done to better the lives of themselves and those around them, they've done for themselves in spite of their current government and its forced economics. These people aren't trading in drugs or slaves. They're doing something quite remarkable and how they're doing it should be studied.
    - stcredzero 15y ago
      No one is lubricating commerce for these people. Their current government and economic system is failing them miserably. Yes, so imagine if we came in with technical solutions that leapfrog their failed government? For example, there's a program to replace mail service with small parcel delivery by quadcopter drone. No roads during the rainy season? No problem!
sethg 15y ago
Libertarian, except for the “gangsters who control the fruit market... running a price-fixing cartel” mentioned on page 3.
tomjen3 15y ago
So you are surprised that a system in which there is relatively little government oversight and few people who initiates the use of force resembles a system which is defined by relatively little government oversight and no initiation of force?

oskarth 15y ago

Single page view: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_market_global_economy?page=full http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_marke... EDIT: Nevermind my suggestion to post the single page view. It was my belief that readability ought to be valued more than double-submission-prevention mechanisms, but it seems like a lot of people disagree with that notion.

tokenadult 15y ago
To the contrary, please post the canonical URL of any article, http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3571353 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3571353 and let the user decide what page view or what display defaults to show. (On a well designed website, the user's user agent will be autodetected, and the default display will be a reasonable view that leads to options for single-page or other special display formats.) That lets the Hacker News duplicate submission detector do its best work. It is, of course, all right (but not strictly necessary) to mention a link to another view of the article, as you kindly did, in a comment.

corford 15y ago

It's a good read and instantly made me think of Bitcoin. "Bitcoin - The currency for the System D generation"

cs702 15y ago
Agree. An expert on e-money on crypto currencies just articulated exactly the same point here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/03/19/could-bitcoin-become-the-currency-of-system-d/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/03/19/could-bitc...
- corford 15y ago
  Thanks for the link! I think he's dead right (the last sentence says everything).
  - cs702 15y ago
    I think there's a good chance he will be proven right over time. You may appreciate this blog post too: http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adoption-and-price-appreciation-of-bitcoin-in-the-long-run/ http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adopt...
- TheAmazingIdiot 15y ago
  I've considered this very idea. I've thought of a few legit business ideas that I cannot afford the legal costs of startup. I could, instead, do it without help and rely on system d with multiple payment options. It would most certainly include bitcoin as a payment option. One of the ideas is effectively is what paypal does with money, but with people. They break state money transmitter laws, yet still stay in business. Mine would break labor laws, only because they are meant for the individual to work for X bigCo.

solson 15y ago

Meanwhile in the highly planned and regulated Swedish economy... they are planning to end cash, a step which the government elites tout as progress and sell as a safety measure. Looks like the underground will need to find an alternative currency. Bitcoin? http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/economy/voice-of-opposition-grows-as-sweden-considers-going-cashless http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/economy/voice-of-opposition...

cs702 15y ago
Agree. In the absence of officially sanctioned cash, something like Bitcoin would likely become a viable alternative for System D transactions. See http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3735407 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3735407 elsewhere in this thread.
bilbo0s 15y ago
Hmm... Not really sure bitcoin could compete well in Systeme D. You are dealing with a lot of people who believe in cash or precious metals. These bring trust in Systeme D. One thing the article doesn't mention is that the Somalis are actually making a pretty big impact as proprietors of a sort of 'banking' system for these kinds of transactions. If you give a Somali 'banker' ... say ... 2000 Euro in Norway, you can count on your cousin in St. Paul, MN getting 2000 Euro from one of the local Somalis. The same is true if you want money to go from Sao Paolo to Capetown. Or Shanghai to Dubai, etc. Their system is robust, extremely trustworthy, and most important, quiet. It is DEEPLY lodged in shadow trans african trade, and rapidly growing in shadow global trade. It will be hard to displace a system like that. Unless the world's Governments decide to invade Somalia, which does seem to be the case lately. One place bitcoin might be useful is in large transactions. The Somalis don't seem to be interested in facilitating these yet, and for obvious reasons, merchants do not want to use cash. If bitcoin builds a reputation for trust on large transactions, perhaps through the convenience of mobile phones it can work its way down the food chain so to speak. But... yeah ... right now there are a lot of Africans for instance, who trust the Somali networks more than the banks in their own countries. Trust like that is hard to earn...and very expensive to buy. It could happen for bitcoin though if boosters put in the work.
- 15y ago

CountHackulus 15y ago

Isn't this essentially the Star Trek economy? These people work to improve themselves and their surroundings.

sunir 15y ago
The exact opposite. They lack any financial security or a society that protects then so they must hustle to survive. In Star Trek they live in a society with abundance and so the state can provide everything.
stcredzero 15y ago
That's also the Kim Stanley Robinson Mars trilogy's economy.

stcredzero 15y ago

"Shadow Superpower" is perhaps misleading. To me, a Superpower can project concerted military or economic power over an extended period of time, and has considerable resistance to the tried and true tactics of "divide and conquer." Then again, perhaps it's not. Is the US so resistant to "divide and conquer?" Can we still project concerted military or economic power over an extended period of time?

xccx 15y ago

"Systeme D.", débrouillard, resourceful, ingenious, inventive, self-starting, entrepreneurial, "l'economie de la débrouillardise." ingenuity economy, the economy of improvisation, self-reliance, do-it-yourself, or DIY, economy of skill, joy.