Well sure we don't have the actual full numbers yet but we have about a decade of data and everything I've seen suggests that the bathtub curve is statistically

Well sure we don't have the actual full numbers yet but we have about a decade of data and everything I've seen suggests that the bathtub curve is statistically indistinguishable from a conventional ice car. There could be some phenomenal unprecedented cliff that defies the durability life cycle of all manufactured goods but the fundamental assumption here is they're going to behave like typical similar products for the rest of the cycle. I'm certainly not a professional in the automobile waste stream but from what I've read, transmissions, which are the key difference here, have a failure rate that is far longer than the normal distribution of car lives. That means the car gets junked mostly for other reasons, probably a compound of various reasons such as the style being outdated, the interior being worn, the body suffering various damages, parts of the drivetrain wearing, hard to replace sensors going bad, accidents, and multiples of these things I spent the past 7 years of my life in telematics logistics and fleet operations of hybrids, hydrogen, CNG and EVs so I know some things but I can only personally speak for the couple hundred that I worked with and what I've read