3 ms·
Great write-up! I wonder if it would be possible to enumerate all possible scenarios like this and assign probabilities to them. For example in the scenario de
by sally_glance 3y ago
Great write-up! I wonder if it would be possible to enumerate all possible scenarios like this and assign probabilities to them.
For example in the scenario described here, I'd expect the probability it actually occured to be pretty low given that the geographical facts (the world is not made of small islands) and the archeological findings (no mass graves that can be assigned to a periodic timeline) don't line up.
Maybe I'm just not creative enough but somehow I feel there can't be that many different scenarios and most of them should be easily falisifieable/verifiable.
- saalweachter 3y agoYou could imagine sociological divide instead of a physical one; a proto-religion that forbade and punished associating with outsiders, for instance.
- sally_glance 3y agoNice, so that's another scenario. Not sure if we should rank it higher in terms of probability though - at some point they would either have had to survive some catastrophe while all others died (basically the bottleneck scenario?) or go out and kill all the others (no archeological evidence).
- saalweachter 3y agoI mean, the archaeological record of 900k years ago is pretty sparse.