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You're right that I'm using "ally" informally, to mean that the country would be in the U.S. camp if there is a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China

You're right that I'm using "ally" informally, to mean that the country would be in the U.S. camp if there is a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China in the future. The U.S. doesn't have mutual defense treaties with either. I'm basing that claim on public opinion - the publics Vietnam loves America and distrusts China. The public of Mexico like both nations, though geography means manufacturing in Mexico can be relied on. Vietnam: 84% have a favorable opinion of the U.S., 11% have a favorable opinion of China https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2023/07/19/vietnamese-americans-views-of-vietnam-and-other-places/ https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2023/07/19/vietna... Mexico: 60% favorable of U.S., 30% unfavorable. For China, 57% favorable, 33% unfavorable https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/06/27/overall-opinion-of-the-u-s/ https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/06/27/overall-opinio... https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/27/views-of-china/ https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/27/views-of-china...

pphysch 3y ago
> You're right that I'm using "ally" informally, to mean that the country would be in the U.S. camp if there is a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China in the future. The government of Vietnam has emphasized that it will not "choose" between US or China. ASEAN nations in general feel this way. They oppose war itself, and can't be tricked into taking sides in one instigated by Washington (or Beijing). > Vietnam: 84% have a favorable opinion of the U.S., 11% have a favorable opinion of China Please actually read the articles you link. This is for Vietnamese American citizens, not citizens of Vietnam. It is utterly unsurprising that immigrants have a overwhelmingly favorable opinion of their new home country, and reveals next to nothing about the PRC-SRV relations .
- whats_a_quasar 3y ago
  Yikes, silly mistake, thanks for noting that. The numbers for Vietnamese citizens are similar. Vietnam one of the most pro-American, anti-Chinese countries in the world. 76% favorable for the U.S., 78% unfavorable for China, though the dataset is older. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-1-the-american-brand/ https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-1-the-... https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-2-chinas-image/ https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-2-chin... We've gotten a bit far from the original point - for the purposes of the U.S. supply chain, Vietnamese government neutrality and strong public support is plenty to negate the risk that the country suddenly cuts off the supply chain. My original point is that de-coupling from China is a national security decision, not protectionism, and production is moving to Vietnam because it's a friendlier country than Informally, I do think Vietnam can be considered a U.S. ally. China is signaling a desire to expand, and most of its neighbors consider it the biggest threat to their security. There's a reason that Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all among the countries that have the highest opinion of the U.S. It's not a trick - they are acting in their own security interests. Vietnamese neutrality makes perfect sense, and I don't think they'd get involved in a war that didn't involve them. But the country is certainly friendly enough to rely on for the U.S. supply chain.
- whats_a_quasar 3y ago
  Also with interesting timing, Vietnam is going to bump the U.S. up a level to a "comprehensive strategic partner" within their diplomatic framework: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/01/vietnam-biden-partnership-china/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/01/...

pphysch 3y ago

> You're right that I'm using "ally" informally, to mean that the country would be in the U.S. camp if there is a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China in the future. The government of Vietnam has emphasized that it will not "choose" between US or China. ASEAN nations in general feel this way. They oppose war itself, and can't be tricked into taking sides in one instigated by Washington (or Beijing). > Vietnam: 84% have a favorable opinion of the U.S., 11% have a favorable opinion of China Please actually read the articles you link. This is for Vietnamese American citizens, not citizens of Vietnam. It is utterly unsurprising that immigrants have a overwhelmingly favorable opinion of their new home country, and reveals next to nothing about the PRC-SRV relations .

whats_a_quasar 3y ago
Yikes, silly mistake, thanks for noting that. The numbers for Vietnamese citizens are similar. Vietnam one of the most pro-American, anti-Chinese countries in the world. 76% favorable for the U.S., 78% unfavorable for China, though the dataset is older. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-1-the-american-brand/ https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-1-the-... https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-2-chinas-image/ https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-2-chin... We've gotten a bit far from the original point - for the purposes of the U.S. supply chain, Vietnamese government neutrality and strong public support is plenty to negate the risk that the country suddenly cuts off the supply chain. My original point is that de-coupling from China is a national security decision, not protectionism, and production is moving to Vietnam because it's a friendlier country than Informally, I do think Vietnam can be considered a U.S. ally. China is signaling a desire to expand, and most of its neighbors consider it the biggest threat to their security. There's a reason that Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all among the countries that have the highest opinion of the U.S. It's not a trick - they are acting in their own security interests. Vietnamese neutrality makes perfect sense, and I don't think they'd get involved in a war that didn't involve them. But the country is certainly friendly enough to rely on for the U.S. supply chain.
whats_a_quasar 3y ago
Also with interesting timing, Vietnam is going to bump the U.S. up a level to a "comprehensive strategic partner" within their diplomatic framework: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/01/vietnam-biden-partnership-china/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/01/...