This assumes that governments will trend towards more stability and the ability to enforce this regulation. The latter depends on alternative energy costs trend

This assumes that governments will trend towards more stability and the ability to enforce this regulation. The latter depends on alternative energy costs trending downward and competing for viability on a larger scale. None of these things are necessarily true. In fact from the government stability perspective we've been in an unparalleled period of peace and stability that looks incredibly shaky into the near future. Any climate commitments go completely out the window when conflict breaks out between nations.