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There’s no credible path for reducing carbon emissions enough to reverse warming under current models that doesn’t involve gigadeaths.

by User23 3y ago

ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
I suppose that's what happens when we leave it as late as possible to even start to do anything. Unfortunately, we're going to have far more gigadeaths when crops fail due to the climate becoming unpredictable and wars over clean water become ubiquitous. It always surprises me that people claim that deaths will result from cleaning up our act when that's a small fraction of the deaths that will be caused by climate catastrophes.
- trashtester 3y ago
  "As late as possibe" might be something like year 2200-2300, after global temperatures have already risen 5-10 degrees. > crops fail due to the climate becoming unpredictable and wars over clean water become ubiquitous Currently, we're facing what can become the worst famine in decades because of a single war that was NOT caused by global warming or access to water. Just simple nationalism. The food supply 50-300 years from now is really hard to predict. If the birth rate stays at current levels, and also reach such levels in the few countries where the birth rate is still high today (mostly Africa), there will be a lot fewer mouths to feed in 2100 than today. And if the birth rate goes back up, and exponential population growth resumes, no amount of food production will ensure that we never run out. Right now (or rather, before 2022), the amount of food produced per capita globally, is probably higher than at any time before since the dawn of time. Thanks in very large parts to fossil fuels used for farm machinery and in fertilizers.
  - ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
    I have difficulty believing any of what you are claiming. e.g. how is Africa going to have a high birth rate when it'll be largely inhabitable due to the high temperatures? Also, what famine are you referring to and why does it not feature here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines
    - trashtester 3y ago
      I'm talking about the potential famine of 2024, it didn't really start yet. Caused mostly by reduced food exports from Ukraine and Russia.
    - trashtester 3y ago
      Also, about Africa: That's the only continent where birth rates remain really high today, and they have very far to go before the continent becomes uninabitable due to temperatures. Anyway, my point was that UNLESS Africa continues to have such birth rates, the population seems to be falling sharply globally in the next century. In other words, the main assumption is that global pupulation is going down, with the Africa part only being a qualifier.

There’s no credible path for reducing carbon emissions enough to reverse warming under current models that doesn’t involve gigadeaths.

by User23 3y ago

There’s no credible path for reducing carbon emissions enough to reverse warming under current models that doesn’t involve gigadeaths.

ndsipa_pomu 3y ago

I suppose that's what happens when we leave it as late as possible to even start to do anything. Unfortunately, we're going to have far more gigadeaths when crops fail due to the climate becoming unpredictable and wars over clean water become ubiquitous. It always surprises me that people claim that deaths will result from cleaning up our act when that's a small fraction of the deaths that will be caused by climate catastrophes.

trashtester 3y ago
"As late as possibe" might be something like year 2200-2300, after global temperatures have already risen 5-10 degrees. > crops fail due to the climate becoming unpredictable and wars over clean water become ubiquitous Currently, we're facing what can become the worst famine in decades because of a single war that was NOT caused by global warming or access to water. Just simple nationalism. The food supply 50-300 years from now is really hard to predict. If the birth rate stays at current levels, and also reach such levels in the few countries where the birth rate is still high today (mostly Africa), there will be a lot fewer mouths to feed in 2100 than today. And if the birth rate goes back up, and exponential population growth resumes, no amount of food production will ensure that we never run out. Right now (or rather, before 2022), the amount of food produced per capita globally, is probably higher than at any time before since the dawn of time. Thanks in very large parts to fossil fuels used for farm machinery and in fertilizers.
- ndsipa_pomu 3y ago
  I have difficulty believing any of what you are claiming. e.g. how is Africa going to have a high birth rate when it'll be largely inhabitable due to the high temperatures? Also, what famine are you referring to and why does it not feature here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines
  - trashtester 3y ago
    I'm talking about the potential famine of 2024, it didn't really start yet. Caused mostly by reduced food exports from Ukraine and Russia.
  - trashtester 3y ago
    Also, about Africa: That's the only continent where birth rates remain really high today, and they have very far to go before the continent becomes uninabitable due to temperatures. Anyway, my point was that UNLESS Africa continues to have such birth rates, the population seems to be falling sharply globally in the next century. In other words, the main assumption is that global pupulation is going down, with the Africa part only being a qualifier.